Coronavirus effect on property markets?

RelievedSheff

silvertooth said:

tommyedinburgh said:

In the process of purchasing a buy to let, a closing date has been set tomorrow on a property we are keen on, I'm getting wobbled by the current global picture, don't know whether or not to proceed.

No harm in delaying, it’s a given prices are going to be much lower looking forward 

Erm. No it isnt!!

silvertooth

Jonbvn said:

silvertooth said:

Jonbvn said:

Italy has just suspended mortgage payments according to a BBC article.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51814481
It sounds like they are proposing payment holidays.

Is there no interest applied during the holiday?

what about tenants not able to pay their rent? Is the government going to give all landlords a holiday on their mortgages and if so how long until the banks totally collapse due to no income?

I am not familiar with how such things works in Italy. In the UK, any mortgage payment holiday still accrues interest, so the bank still get to eat.

With private tenants, if things become as desperate as some anticipate then IMHO no court will issue eviction orders.

So I court issues eviction orders when tenants stop paying rents, but what happens when rent areas build up and up to several thousands of pounds.

maybe the landlord has savings and can keep up with mortgage payments to the bank for a while but what happens when the savings run out?

one way or an other we are looking at an almighty financial crisis 

It’s not the pandemic that is the biggest problem it is the panic 

https://youtu.be/nhasaUDJSO8

Crashy_Time

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

lisyloo said:

Indeed. One could argue that if people aren’t travelling or going out and spending more time at home that they’ll be keener for it to be a nicer place to stay and be more willing to spend a higher proportion of their money on it rather than a cruise (Petrie dish). I expect the medium term result to be higher prices. Those with a dry cellar or storage or shelter will be at a premium.

Very optimistic lisyloo. But your forgetting that the banks are all in deep doodoo 

as people stop paying rents and mortgages the banks are going to collapse and so will the property market

this will be the least of the government’s worries as this pandemic becomes the worst crisis in living memories 

It was somewhat tongue in cheek.
but as we’ve been saying all along, it won’t help most buy a house as we’ve consistently said that a serious crash would be accompanied by job losses and economic issues making it hard for most people to buy.

But in that case the banks die because they have to keep lending, and mortgage lending is really their best horse? in fact everything that has been done since `08 has been about keeping lending, especially mortgage lending, going, why would the PTB stop now? If the banks die the price of your house is what someone can pony up from their house safe or their penny jar so you have to be very careful what you wish for, and you consistently said that Brexit wouldn`t happen and that the virus was just a short lived "blip", why should anyone take any notice of your predictions about how house prices will be miraculously preserved in a meltdown?

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

But in that case the banks die because they have to keep lending,

The banks do keep lending but with more onerous terms; larger deposits, potentially higher interest rates and stricter credit checks. As Lisyloo says, the irony of cheaper house prices is that for many people it actually makes it harder to buy one.

lisyloo

wot no delete?

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

lisyloo said:

Indeed. One could argue that if people aren’t travelling or going out and spending more time at home that they’ll be keener for it to be a nicer place to stay and be more willing to spend a higher proportion of their money on it rather than a cruise (Petrie dish). I expect the medium term result to be higher prices. Those with a dry cellar or storage or shelter will be at a premium.

Very optimistic lisyloo. But your forgetting that the banks are all in deep doodoo 

as people stop paying rents and mortgages the banks are going to collapse and so will the property market

this will be the least of the government’s worries as this pandemic becomes the worst crisis in living memories 

It was somewhat tongue in cheek.
but as we’ve been saying all along, it won’t help most buy a house as we’ve consistently said that a serious crash would be accompanied by job losses and economic issues making it hard for most people to buy.

But in that case the banks die because they have to keep lending, and mortgage lending is really their best horse? in fact everything that has been done since `08 has been about keeping lending, especially mortgage lending, going, why would the PTB stop now? If the banks die the price of your house is what someone can pony up from their house safe or their penny jar so you have to be very careful what you wish for, and you consistently said that Brexit wouldn`t happen and that the virus was just a short lived "blip", why should anyone take any notice of your predictions about how house prices will be miraculously preserved in a meltdown?

You remember 2008? House prices weren't preserved; however, people who didn't need to sell just battened down the hatches until the market valued their house 'properly'. The proportion of the market made up of distressed sellers therefore increased. I distinctly remember the guys on HPC complaining about deluded sellers as supply dried up.

Then per Mobilesaver's post the banks imposed tougher lending conditions whilst simultaneously starting a price war to secure the business of the very best risks. Bad news for FTBs but great news for the already well off. 

There used to be a guy on here who said who you want to know who will own the houses after a meltdown just look at who owns them before - it'll be the same people.  

silvertooth

China are nowhere near going back to work it’s all fake news

hospitals are still overrun and last remaining medical staff and supplies are going down and down 

China are a few months ahead of us, Italy a few weeks ahead of us

it is coming to the rest of the world and the few people left with their heads in the sand will soon see that this is the most serious crisis since the Spanish Flu.

we are looking at a new Great Depression like the last one 100 years ago

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

China are nowhere near going back to work it’s all fake news

New cases in China are falling. Around 70% of workers are now back at work. It's only that low because the impact was felt during the lunar new year so people were stuck in the wrong part of the country because of travel restrictions. It's good to apply some healthy skepticism to the data about the spread of Covid-19 and Chinese production. However, your obvious disappointment shows you're struggling to accept reality.

As I explained yesterday. I work for a company selling food related products which are mainly manufactured in the Far East. There's a mini sales boom as people stock up (there's no need), there's an overflowing warehouse of stock built up for brexit, service levels to the retailers is running at 100% and there's not been a single inwards shipment delay. There might actually be a bonus on the cards. Today I turned on the news to find out my mortgage payment will go down from April.

Of course other areas of the economy won't be doing so well but a lot of that will be spending deferred rather than lost i.e. people might take an extra holiday next year if they haven't squandered their money on frozen food, baked beans and toilet rolls.

Do you have any life experiences of your own that might help inform or are you sticking to Youtube to dictate your opinion?

_mayonnaise_

You gotta love those youtube videos, a silver ramper walking down public foothpaths with his handycam, musing about coronavirus conspiracies and the collapse of the global financial system.

Youtube link 7 posts above, 8mins 40secs in : "uh oh...a normal person coming down the path...let's make a swift right turn into this grass verge here!"

_mayonnaise_

Crashy_Time said:

why should anyone take any notice of your predictions about how house prices will be miraculously preserved in a meltdown?

....says the chap who's been predicting house price meltdowns for the past 20 years.