Tesla News & Discussion

ABrass

1961Nick wrote: »

Tesla's 4th quarter numbers are looking promising. Revenue above forecast & share price currently up $53.

Yeah, loads of good news in their Q4 results.

Model Y starts shipping in March. No doubt that'll be US only to start with though.

They're aiming for roughly 500,000 units of either the Y and model 3 combined at the Fremont factory. My bet is that they're going to be battery limited and I believe they use the same packs. If I'm right about that then the supply of model 3 will decrease for a while as they punch out more model Ys (which have a higher profit margin).

Turned a good profit in Q4 and the China factory is ramping up nicely.

almillar

Re: Motorway Vs Urban mileage for the corolla Hybrid
Using the US regulator which seem to have official mileage actually close to real world
It's 53 mpg city, 52 highway but those are US gallons converted to UK gallons it works out to
63.65 mpg city , 62.45 mpg highway almost exactly the same

Fair enough, accepted.

This also isn't anti ICE as EVs also have to be aerodynamic to allow okay range per KWh of batteries
It's not like ICE have to be aerodynamic and EVs can be boxy the future is both will have to be aerodynamic

Sure, but you said that ICE cars would become more aero, to become more efficient, to lower their CO2 g/km. I'm pointing out that all these efficiencies would also apply to any EV, and indeed, without all the gubbins underneath, it's easier on an EV. EVs also require less cooling, so that's fewer big holes in the front to let cold air in. You know what big holes in the front do to aero, don't you?

I don't see why you feel the need to push back on this
Probably you just don't like the fact that ICE cars can indeed get better mileage without hugely signifcant changes

Please try to see. I'm pushing back because you're saying ICE cars will get more efficient if manufacturers make them more aero. Manufacturers are already working hard to make cars aero. But whatever you can do to an ICE, can also, and arguably more easily, be applied to an EV. The shape of the car, EV or ICE can improve its efficiency. You can't go any further than that.

Who has the money to do this, all the big car companies
The only road block is no existing NG refueling infrastructure but that's not all that difficult

And why would the big car companies want to spend this money on a new category, when there's already ICE, EV, hydrogen?

If Tesla can build out a supercharger network , ford or GM can easily build out a gas supercharger network

Tesla were willing to make a huge investment in that, make huge losses for years, and are getting the money back via car sales. And people like you then criticise them for not dropping the prices of their cars. I guess Ford and GM would put this in the 'far to risky' category.

You just don't like the fact that NG at 1 cent kills any savings of electric cars at 10 cents

Fact? Which car are we talking about? You sure you know what a fact is?!!

They would also be just as clean as a BEV run indirectly off gas fired power stations
And significantly cleaner than BEVs charged off marginal coal power stations

And again, we totally ignore renewable energy that puts a significant amount of power into the planet's grids.

Ford GM Toyota together or alone can do this

Go for it guys, one person at least will be watching with interest.

Google suggests hybrid corrolla is $23,000 in the US

Plus applicable state taxes.

Toyota could sell a hybrid gas corrolla with 100,000 miles free gas at $24,000
The cost of NG to do 100,000 miles would only be $700......

Go for it guys etc.
Do you not recongise that we're trying to move away from fossil fuels? Why do you want to start down a new, fossil fuel path, with a dead end (the gas runs out)? EVs run on electric, electric can be made in various ways, some very clean and efficient. Some is still being made in a dirty and inefficient way, but year upon year, we're getting greener (certain dirty coutries excluded). Making the transport electric is a first step. Take all that money to invent a new NG powered car, and put it into developing the grid gas turbines to be more efficient.

Plumber connects a wall charger that fills up the car while you sleep ������

More flammable liquids in the home, and the noise of a motor running. No thanks.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Fair enough, accepted.

Sure, but you said that ICE cars would become more aero, to become more efficient, to lower their CO2 g/km. I'm pointing out that all these efficiencies would also apply to any EV, and indeed, without all the gubbins underneath, it's easier on an EV. EVs also require less cooling, so that's fewer big holes in the front to let cold air in. You know what big holes in the front do to aero, don't you?

The hole at the front doesn't need to be that big
It's mostly for aesthetic
This can be improved too have smaller vents or even a small and a bigger one
One for urban open the other Motorway

Please try to see. I'm pushing back because you're saying ICE cars will get more efficient if manufacturers make them more aero. Manufacturers are already working hard to make cars aero. But whatever you can do to an ICE, can also, and arguably more easily, be applied to an EV. The shape of the car, EV or ICE can improve its efficiency. You can't go any further than that.

There are aero models eg the corolla or Tesla M3 and not aero models eg the golf
If regulations are tightened an easy way to make the golf more aero and if this isn't enough make it a hybrid. Such a golf aero hybrid would probably be 70mpg

And why would the big car companies want to spend this money on a new category, when there's already ICE, EV, hydrogen?

The only reason to make any investment as a business. You hope to sell more than it costs and make a profit. The question is would there be demand for NG powered hybrids? I think so who doesn't want to pay 14 cents on the dollar for fuel?

Tesla were willing to make a huge investment in that, make huge losses for years, and are getting the money back via car sales. And people like you then criticise them for not dropping the prices of their cars. I guess Ford and GM would put this in the 'far to risky' category.

I'm not critical of Tesla one bit
I am critical of the critics which seem to think Tesla is proof of EVs having arrived and will shortly be the end of ICE

And again, we totally ignore renewable energy that puts a significant amount of power into the planet's grids.

We've been through this
BeVs are marginal generation which is mostly coal then gas for the world's grids

Go for it guys, one person at least will be watching with interest.
Plus applicable state taxes. The very same taxes that to EVs?
Go for it guys etc.
Do you not recongise that we're trying to move away from fossil fuels? Why do you want to start down a new, fossil fuel path, with a dead end (the gas runs out)? EVs run on electric, electric can be made in various ways, some very clean and efficient. Some is still being made in a dirty and inefficient way, but year upon year, we're getting greener (certain dirty coutries excluded). Making the transport electric is a first step. Take all that money to invent a new NG powered car, and put it into developing the grid gas turbines to be more efficient.

'We' are not trying to move away from fossil fuels
'you' are
It's all about time frame
At least for the next 30-60 years NG cars would be a huge net benefit

More flammable liquids in the home, and the noise of a motor running. No thanks.

With a motor a fraction the size of s heat pump I'm guessing you must detest heat pump sounds?

The flammable gas is already pipes to your home this adds no additional risk

Plus as I said the vast majority would just charge up at the local gas charger
400 miles in 4 minutes probably just need 1-2 charges per month just like petrol today

almillar

The hole at the front doesn't need to be that big
It's mostly for aesthetic

The big hole, at the front, with a radiator behind it with a fan attached to it. That's aesthetic is it? Wanna think about that for a second?
Hint: No, it's not. It collects air to cool the radiator which cools the coolant that pumps around the engine. Brakes will also need some level of airflow, and EVs need less, because they use them less. Do NOT tell me that electric motors, or batteries heat up. They do, but nowhere near to the levels of ICE, hence why I said they need less cooling, and fewer holes in the front, which you STILL managed to argue with!

This can be improved too have smaller vents or even a small and a bigger one
One for urban open the other Motorway

You really need to look at car history, and present. The Citroen 2CV had a summer grille, and a winter grille (well, my mum's did in the 80s. And car manufacturers have all sorts of tricks with cooling, mostly to get the engine up to temperature quickly, to achieve better economy. If you think they haven't thought of movable bodywork, you're mad. They have, it's out there on the road right now, but only on very expensive cars. So they're not doing it, on cost basis, and if you want it to happen, then the cost of your ICE drivetrain goes up, just like I said.

The only reason to make any investment as a business. You hope to sell more than it costs and make a profit. The question is would there be demand for NG powered hybrids?

No, I don't think there is, when there are already perfectly viable options staring us in the face, on the road. Why risk it?!

We've been through this
BeVs are marginal generation which is mostly coal then gas for the world's grids

Yes we have been through this and we fundamentally disagree. It doesn't mean you can keep spouting though. It's not marginal, it's part of the overall grid. If the grid was 25% renewable in 2019, my car was 25% renewable. As was your oven, Martyn's fridge, ABrass's TV etc etc. If we all buy EVs and charge them, then in 2020, we would need to install more renewables to the grid to keep up, I do understand that. But EVs do not solely run on coal and gas. They're not some special electrical device that lives only in marginal load.

The very same taxes that to EVs?

You're trying to make ICE look cheap. You're not applying tax to them (it varies state-to-state), so you just need to say, plus tax. And EVs might be taxed differently, and indeed be subsidised, state-to-state, so it's worth pointing out on both sides, when talking about the price a consumer pays for a car.

We' are not trying to move away from fossil fuels
'you' are

You should be, it's running out. What are you waiting for?

With a motor a fraction the size of s heat pump I'm guessing you must detest heat pump sounds?

I was imagining more of an ICE sound? Even small ICE is noisy.

JKenH

Here’s some comment on Tesla’s prospects from Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4320864-tesla-solid-year-future-is-even-brighter

1961Nick

TSLA met a bit of resistance at $700 but they're now trading @ $715.

Any remaining shorters will need some very deep pockets to ride this out.

Edit: $727

JKenH

Despite the title this is essentially a technical article on the progress of autopilot. GA would have appreciated the rapid development of AI. 

One interesting comment for those of  you invested in Tesla.

’ ARK Invest recently updated its robotaxi scenario for Tesla and projected that in 2024, Tesla could generate $351 billion in revenue from robotaxis. In this scenario, ARK assigns Tesla a whopping price target of $15,000 per share in 2024.’

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4322618-teslas-foundational-rewrite-of-autopilot-overlooked-upside-risk

JKenH

Tesla aims for restart in Shanghai next week

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3539869-tesla-aims-for-restart-in-shanghai-next-week

EricMears

JKenH said:

. . . .  GA would have appreciated the rapid development of AI. 

Isn't there a strong possibility that he/she is still  reading these posts ?  First of all,  he or she has only been banned from posting; not from viewing and secondly, many of the discussions suggested that GA was only one of a set of alter egos.

Hexane

EricMears said:

Isn't there a strong possibility that he/she is still  reading these posts ?  First of all,  he or she has only been banned from posting; not from viewing and secondly, many of the discussions suggested that GA was only one of a set of alter egos.

I don't think we should really care one way or the other as to whether the bear AI is still reading our posts. As for the "alter egos" conspiracy theory, there has been good evidence presented for some of it, and a complete absence of evidence for the rest of it. The people who actually run the forums have access to the technical data regarding each post, and in this instance they quite specifically banned one account; and not another account that black helicopter theorists were sure was the same person.