Tesla News & Discussion

almillar

Yes hybrid technology helps city doesn't do much for motorways
But we are living in an increasingly urbanised world

I don't think you can simply ignore 70MPH, multimile driving, where hybrids will NOT get 63MPG. And nor will EVs get their claimed range. Should your proposed tiny engined hybrids be banned from the motorway, and then, would people actually buy them, and then, would manufacturers actually make them?!!

What seems like a backward step?
It's not like the world is full of EVs and I'm suggesting let's go to plug in hybrids

You're suggesting PHEVs with tiny petrol engines and I'm saying THAT is a backward step (and deeply unsafe) because PHEVs already have big engines. That would be backwards. I've also told you that small petrol engine +big electric motor = BMW i3. You think you're having new ideas, you're not. The engine charges the battery, does not drive the wheels. It's not powerful enough, which I'm trying to tell you.

You are nit picking
To try and avoid the reality
Which is that hybrid tech works

Nit picking = pointing out your exaggerations and logic failures. I don't recall saying hybrid tech doesn't work.

You have no idea what the price of an EV is
There is only one mass manufacturer of EVs which doesn't have a ICE fleet subbing it
That's Tesla and it's cheap end model 3 is £43,000
Actually they do have ICE fleet subbing it in the form of zero emmissions credits sold to ICE companies

So are you saying that *I* have no idea how much an EV costs to make, or *NEITHER OF US*? As you say, we have NO IDEA how much the ICE manufacturers are subsidising the making of EVs, so you have no place telling us how much more expensive they are to make. You've dreamt up some subsidising, but you've absolutely no backup for it (and nor do I against it) so I suggest you just drop it.

Compare this £43,000 to the fleet mix of the too 10 selling models in the UK of £16,000 and tell me the price differential is trivial...

This one again? No, compare it to its competitors. BMW, Audi and other 'flex' brands as you put it, not 1.0L Fiestas! How about saying Mercedes can't make a £16,000 car?

Next you'll say battery prices are falling like a rock
Only after 2.5 years of rock falling.... the model 3 is no cheaper....

I'll not bother, I've already given my quick theory on it (supply and demand, Tesla's need to make back some money).

I'm not suggesting that it has to be a generator

No, I am! You think it can drive the wheels. I'm telling you it can't, because it's not powerful enough to maintain a speed if you run out of electric. What's the difference between the Corolla Hybrid, and what you're proposing? More battery, less engine? Don't you think manufacturers have thought of that? Toyota started with a 1.8L engine, and went down to 1.5L for the Yaris. What do you know that Toyota don't?

How many ICE companies plan to convert half their fleet to full BEV?

Smart is 100% EV right now. I know, that's a bit niche.

You know the price not the cost
They could be selling those at a loss

What loss are they selling at? Is the loss now x2, since the battery capacity is x2? Is the simplest answer to EV's getting cheaper, or getting bigger batteries, not the FACT that battery prices have dropped?

No what I said was no mass market EV selling in 100,000+ units a year has gotten cheaper

Renault Zoe, above.

Clearly the mass market is price sensitive

Absolutely. We don't have 'supermini' EVs the same price as supermini ICE. The Clio and Zoe are easy to compare, they're related and come out of the same factory. Zoe IS more expensive than Clio. But the gap is tightening, and Zoe's capability has zoomed up, with Clio 'evolving' much, much slower. Don't you recognise this trend?

Best selling car in Europe the VW Polo you can buy one £12,500
Where is the competitor EV to that? Doesn't exist.

Who are you arguing with? Not me. But you told me a Zoe was twice the price of a Clio, that's a lie.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I don't think you can simply ignore 70MPH, multimile driving, where hybrids will NOT get 63MPG. And nor will EVs get their claimed range. Should your proposed tiny engined hybrids be banned from the motorway, and then, would people actually buy them, and then, would manufacturers actually make them?!!

The hybrids do get 63mpg on the motorway

I think like most people you are mistaking efficiency with shape
The reason a Tesla does so well on the motorway or gets a lot of miles per KWH isn't because their batteries or electric motor are better it's because the shape of a model 3 is better than say an E golf so you have the e golf getting less than 3 miles per kWh at 70mph while the M3 gets around 4.2

The reason the corrolla gets such high mileage at high speed is the same reason as the Tesla they are both very aerodynamic

if emmissions regulations are tightened I'd expect shape and aerodynamics to play a bigger part going forward.
An 'easy' way to lower emmissions and keep ICE technology and models is to improve aerodynamics
A little polo gets worse economy on the motorway than a big Prius the reason is shape

You're suggesting PHEVs with tiny petrol engines and I'm saying THAT is a backward step (and deeply unsafe) because PHEVs already have big engines. That would be backwards. I've also told you that small petrol engine +big electric motor = BMW i3. You think you're having new ideas, you're not. The engine charges the battery, does not drive the wheels. It's not powerful enough, which I'm trying to tell you.

Near term future are hybrids like the corolla and ionic
If emmissions regs are pushed too hard these very same models can be made much lower emmissions by adding just 5KWh packs which will give them 20 mile urban electric range lowering a hybrid from perhaps 75g to 30g

So are you saying that *I* have no idea how much an EV costs to make, or *NEITHER OF US*? As you say, we have NO IDEA how much the ICE manufacturers are subsidising the making of EVs, so you have no place telling us how much more expensive they are to make. You've dreamt up some subsidising, but you've absolutely no backup for it (and nor do I against it) so I suggest you just drop it.

Why are emmissions regulations needed but to force the car makers to subsidise EVs and hybrids from the ICE sales?

This one again? No, compare it to its competitors. BMW, Audi and other 'flex' brands as you put it, not 1.0L Fiestas! How about saying Mercedes can't make a £16,000 car?

I'm trying to point out a simple reality which is cars come at every price point and the lower price points dominate

VW sells many more polls at £12,500 than it does A4s at £24,000

Electrification can possibly take the very top end but it's not close to taking the bottom (polo Fiesta etc) or the middle (golf focus etc)

Also Tesla is far more flex than BMW or Audi eg Audi A4 can be had for £24,000 v £43,000 for the M3

No, I am! You think it can drive the wheels. I'm telling you it can't, because it's not powerful enough to maintain a speed if you run out of electric. What's the difference between the Corolla Hybrid, and what you're proposing? More battery, less engine? Don't you think manufacturers have thought of that? Toyota started with a 1.8L engine, and went down to 1.5L for the Yaris. What do you know that Toyota don't?

We are both making the assumption that a smaller power engine is in fact notably cheaper
I didn't say Toyota need to go down from a 1.8L hybrid I said it's a possibility of costs are important. But costs of the Toyota Corolla with its 1.8L engine are already pretty good

I don't think this is likely but possibly if things started from scratch we would have hybrids with small gas turbines which can be multi fuel. Natural gas petrol or biofuels. Gas turbines are the most efficient lightest most powerful and most compact and light weight of all the ICEs hence why they are used in jets and even some boats

The problem with them has been they don't like varying power much so don't work on cars
But for hybrids they would work fine at steady speed with the battery and electric side varying output

Using natural gas is also cheaper and lower carbon
Again I don't think this is at all likely but it's a small possibility (5% imo)

Mostly because in some areas like the US refined natural gas costs as little as 1 cent a unit while refined petrol is 7 cents a unit. Especially for larger vehicles a hybrid small gas turbine vehicle makes sense to use 1 cent fuel rather than 7 cents fuel. Things like HGVs would benefit from this immensely likewise large plug in hybrids like SUVs or delivery vehicles.

What loss are they selling at? Is the loss now x2, since the battery capacity is x2? Is the simplest answer to EV's getting cheaper, or getting bigger batteries, not the FACT that battery prices have dropped?

EVs won't get cheaper they will get more expensive as the subsidises are withdrawn
The model 3 costs no less now than it did on realise 2.5 years ago but the end consumer is paying $7,500 more since the tax credit has been withdrawn

This will happen globally
Even in the UK it's gone from £4.5k sub to £3.5k sub

So don't expect end prices to fall
Any costs savings will be eaten up by loss making companies breaking even (Tesla) and then subsidies being removed

£24,000 Audi A4 Vs £43,000 M3

Absolutely. We don't have 'supermini' EVs the same price as supermini ICE. The Clio and Zoe are easy to compare, they're related and come out of the same factory. Zoe IS more expensive than Clio. But the gap is tightening, and Zoe's capability has zoomed up, with Clio 'evolving' much, much slower. Don't you recognise this trend?

Sure I just don't draw a simple crayon graph because when you do that you get conclusions like the solar PV advocates a decade ago that were proclaiming ever exponential cost falls would mean the whole planet will be ov posted in a decade or two....how did that pan out?

JKenH

I have that feeling of deja vu.

GreatApe

If I were Ford or GM I would be investing in producing a gas hybrid powertrain and would deploy 'gas superchargers' around the country and would build and sell home gas chargers too (although most people wouldn't need these gas chargers)

Natural gas at 1 cent is going to be significantly cheaper than Electricity at 10 cents or refined petrol at 7 cents

Gas hybrids could also be very green
Without any efficiency improvements you get a 25% cut in co2 from just the fuel and it burns cleaner too

So a hybrid corrolla or Ionic or Prius or... goes to ~75g/km which is very close to the indirect emmissions of BEVs run off gas power stations and Significantly cleaner than BEVs run off coal stations.

Significantly cheaper to buy and about the same emmissions are EVs
Also significantly per mile Cheaper 1 cent NG Vs 10 cents electricity

Gas powered hybrids efficiency upto 40% efficient gas turbine
Vs about 40% efficient running an EV off a gas power station (49% efficient CCGT 7% grid loss 10% charge loss 5% discharge & DC to AC loss = 39% efficiency)l pretty much a best case)
So the emmissions are about the same.

almillar

The hybrids do get 63mpg on the motorway

What do they get in town then? What's the Urban, Extra Urban and Combined figure? As I said before, maybe we should stick with official numbers? Hybrids don't do the same on the motorway as in town, no car does.

I think like most people you are mistaking efficiency with shape

Shape? I don't think shape has been mentioned! And I'm certainly not. You know my 2 EVs? The Zoe and the Soul? Do you know what they both look like? The Soul looks, well, a but less aerodynamic than the Zoe. If you look closely, it's a bit rounder than at first glance. But it's actually a slightly more efficient car, in my experience, than the Zoe. So no, I've not mentioned shape before, nor have I made any claims about how a Tesla does on the motorway.

An 'easy' way to lower emmissions and keep ICE technology and models is to improve aerodynamics

Like a Leaf, or Zoe, for example. You can't use a Golf as an example. It's an EV inside an ICE car. So you want an ICE Leaf then? Again, anything you do with the shape of an ICE, you can do with EV. Indeed, with a nice flat battery in the floor, and much less complexity underneath, it's much easier to make an aerodynamic EV than ICE. The problem isn't that manufacturers haven't thought of it, it's that buyers don't like the way aerodynamic cars look. Leaf V1 for example. Tesla have managed it better, but they still look a bit 'soft' (for aero reasons). A 'teardrop' shape, with the 'tail' at the back, is extremely aerodynamic, but not that practical. That super-efficient VW (XL1) is about the closest recent car you could get to that.

A little polo gets worse economy on the motorway than a big Prius the reason is shape

Short cars are less aerodynamic than long cars, yes. A BMW 3 series saloon will be more aerodynamic than a Polo. Hey, make it a Hybrid, ah, there it is, the 330e.

Near term future are hybrids like the corolla and ionic

So you're dropping 'your' tiny ICE engine idea then? Cough, i3 already did it, cough.

Why are emmissions regulations needed but to force the car makers to subsidise EVs and hybrids from the ICE sales?

Emmissions regulations have been around, and tightening for a very long time. They're nothing to do with pushing the sale of EVs directly, moving to EV is just a logical consequence, which finally STARTED TO become economically, and practically, viable, with Lithium Ion batteries hitting the road. Or maybe 'they' who make emmission regulations, were pushing for EVs since the 70s. Long wait!

I'm trying to point out a simple reality which is cars come at every price point and the lower price points dominate

I don't think anyone ever argued with that.

Gas turbine hybrid cars?!! Would you calm down and quit these tangents! EV is here, now. Who are you going to pay to develop all this stuff?

Again I don't think this is at all likely but it's a small possibility (5% imo)

Yeah, so maybe, focus?!

Even in the UK it's gone from £4.5k sub to £3.5k sub

It actually started at £5k, ask me how I know ;-) and costs are coming down FASTER, for now, than subsidies. Are you denying that battery costs have fallen? Are you denying they're the most expensive part of an EV? Are you going to tell me AGAIN that Tesla cars haven't got cheaper, after I've said why I think they're a special case? Will you acknowledge my example of the Renault Zoe after I have acknowledged your Tesla example?

If I were Ford or GM I would be investing in producing a gas hybrid powertrain

You just said in your last post this was really unlikely. You were being far too kind. Can we get back to the moderately real world? I'm not talking about gas turbine cars any more. I didn't think I would need to say that today.

<numbers>

Lovely. Baseless.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

What do they get in town then? What's the Urban, Extra Urban and Combined figure? As I said before, maybe we should stick with official numbers? Hybrids don't do the same on the motorway as in town, no car does.

Shape? I don't think shape has been mentioned! And I'm certainly not. You know my 2 EVs? The Zoe and the Soul? Do you know what they both look like? The Soul looks, well, a but less aerodynamic than the Zoe. If you look closely, it's a bit rounder than at first glance. But it's actually a slightly more efficient car, in my experience, than the Zoe. So no, I've not mentioned shape before, nor have I made any claims about how a Tesla does on the motorway.

Like a Leaf, or Zoe, for example. You can't use a Golf as an example. It's an EV inside an ICE car. So you want an ICE Leaf then? Again, anything you do with the shape of an ICE, you can do with EV. Indeed, with a nice flat battery in the floor, and much less complexity underneath, it's much easier to make an aerodynamic EV than ICE. The problem isn't that manufacturers haven't thought of it, it's that buyers don't like the way aerodynamic cars look. Leaf V1 for example. Tesla have managed it better, but they still look a bit 'soft' (for aero reasons). A 'teardrop' shape, with the 'tail' at the back, is extremely aerodynamic, but not that practical. That super-efficient VW (XL1) is about the closest recent car you could get to that.

Short cars are less aerodynamic than long cars, yes. A BMW 3 series saloon will be more aerodynamic than a Polo. Hey, make it a Hybrid, ah, there it is, the 330e.

So you're dropping 'your' tiny ICE engine idea then? Cough, i3 already did it, cough.

Emmissions regulations have been around, and tightening for a very long time. They're nothing to do with pushing the sale of EVs directly, moving to EV is just a logical consequence, which finally STARTED TO become economically, and practically, viable, with Lithium Ion batteries hitting the road. Or maybe 'they' who make emmission regulations, were pushing for EVs since the 70s. Long wait!

I don't think anyone ever argued with that.

Gas turbine hybrid cars?!! Would you calm down and quit these tangents! EV is here, now. Who are you going to pay to develop all this stuff?

Yeah, so maybe, focus?!

It actually started at £5k, ask me how I know ;-) and costs are coming down FASTER, for now, than subsidies. Are you denying that battery costs have fallen? Are you denying they're the most expensive part of an EV? Are you going to tell me AGAIN that Tesla cars haven't got cheaper, after I've said why I think they're a special case? Will you acknowledge my example of the Renault Zoe after I have acknowledged your Tesla example?

You just said in your last post this was really unlikely. You were being far too kind. Can we get back to the moderately real world? I'm not talking about gas turbine cars any more. I didn't think I would need to say that today.

Lovely. Baseless.

Re: Motorway Vs Urban mileage for the corolla Hybrid
Using the US regulator which seem to have official mileage actually close to real world
It's 53 mpg city, 52 highway but those are US gallons converted to UK gallons it works out to
63.65 mpg city , 62.45 mpg highway almost exactly the same

Re: Shape
People might not like a more aerodynamic shape or wheel covers to improve efficiency
But if there is a €95/gram fine then they'll either have to accept the model gets more aerodynamic or they will have to pay higher prices to cover the fines

This also isn't anti ICE as EVs also have to be aerodynamic to allow okay range per KWh of batteries
It's not like ICE have to be aerodynamic and EVs can be boxy the future is both will have to be aerodynamic

I don't see why you feel the need to push back on this
Probably you just don't like the fact that ICE cars can indeed get better mileage without hugely signifcant changes


Re Natural Gas Hybrids
You are too wedded to your own biases
Cleaner greener and significantly cheaper (1 cent NG Vs 7 cent petrol Vs 10 cent electric)
Who has the money to do this, all the big car companies
The only road block is no existing NG refueling infrastructure but that's not all that difficult
If Tesla can build out a supercharger network , ford or GM can easily build out a gas supercharger network. Such a network would be a lot cheaper to build out it's much more basic than a supercharger. One gas pump can also fill up a car in five mins so you don't need as many gas pumps. It would also work very well for HGVs

You just don't like the fact that NG at 1 cent kills any savings of electric cars at 10 cents
They would also be just as clean as a BEV run indirectly off gas fired power stations
And significantly cleaner than BEVs charged off marginal coal power stations

Ford GM Toyota together or alone can do this
NG hybrids with fuel at just 1 cent rather than 7 cent petrol or 10 cent electricity
Google suggests hybrid corrolla is $23,000 in the US
Toyota could sell a hybrid gas corrolla with 100,000 miles free gas at $24,000
The cost of NG to do 100,000 miles would only be $700......

How would electric cars compete?
Corrolla for $24,000 with 100,000 miles for free
Model 3 for $40,000 with zero free miles
Both roughly the same emmissions in a gas heavy grid. The Toyota less in a coal heavy grid

This is assuming conventional ICE engine run off NG with no efficiency improvements no turbines just run an ICE designed for NG

GreatApe

Toyota should do NG hybrids under a totally new brand. Take the Tesla route

A Toyota Corolla copy under a different badge at a slightly higher price point and slightly better interior and the same type of minimalist Tesla inside ...... and free fuel for 100,000 miles

100,000 miles on NG is under $700
Deploy gas superchargers nationwide
400 mile range in 4 mins 'charge'

Make the gas hybrid more beefy
Replace the 1.5KWh battery with a 3KWh battery and the electric motor with one twice as powerful to give it fast 0-50 times. Better higher quality interior too

Use an ICE designed for NG
Burns cleaner and lower emmissions

$23,000 for a petrol corrolla so gas should be about the same
+700 for free fuel for 100,000 miles
+3300 for a higher quality interior and bigger battery and motor
= $27,000 with zero fuel costs for 100,000 miles....

NG is cheap in the USA but also almost the world over
The UK spot price at the moment is below 1p/KWh
That's like paying 10p a litre for Petrol (petrol has just under 10KWh per litre)

If their fuel cell R&D pays off repalce the ICE engine at perhaps 30% efficiency with a NG fuel cell at perhaps 50-60% efficiency

Could even sell home chargers
Plumber connects a wall charger that fills up the car while you sleep &#55358;&#56611;&#55357;&#56889;&#55357;&#56834;
Although this wouldn't be necessary as most people could/would happily just charge at a gas charger once a month for their + 500 miles.

1961Nick

Tesla's 4th quarter numbers are looking promising. Revenue above forecast & share price currently up $53.

ABrass

The model 3 is going to sell like hot cakes from April onwards in the UK. They'd be mad to drop the price whilst there's still no competition.

The model S is more interesting. There the price hasn't moved much since 2012 when it was launched, however the battery size has gone up by a third and they throw in a second motor for the same (ish) price.

GreatApe

Tesla main value is software for self drive if it gets there first it's worth more than a trillion $$

Everything else is a sideshow with regards to market cap
They expect to build a little over 500,000 vehicles this year
Its just 5% of what Toyota or VW will build this year

Their ASP for their cars was $57,000 last quarter
The ASP for the top 10 selling cars in the UK was $17,300
For Tesla that's great they are able to sell cars at very high prices
For an affordable EV future it doesn't paint a good picture that a company charging $57,000 can't seem to make a profit on EVs

Also people seem to be jumping up and down about Tesla profitability when a reality check shows that 2019 was yet again another year of losses for Tesla despite worldwide and US heavy subsidy of BEVs. This year 2020 may be the first profitable year...

It's all about the growth....That works with software...With websites and tech
Because they have ridiculous margins and often zero marginal cost
If Microsoft sells one more copy of Windows it costs them close to $0
Not the case with phycsical.prodicts like cars