Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Just posted, quite a fair write up of Agenus (which I hold):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357726-multiple-late-stage-cancer-therapies-agenus-inc-offers-best-risk-reward-profile-in

It's another company that looks poised to potentially take market share from the big boys. Risky (dilution being one of the largest risks), but if successful, in a few years the share price could be in the 100's of dollars (it's currently in the $3-4 range). It hasn't gone up too much yet since I first bought it (my first buy was actually higher than what it is now), so I'm considering buying more, especially if there is a dip.

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Just posted, quite a fair write up of Agenus (which I hold):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357726-multiple-late-stage-cancer-therapies-agenus-inc-offers-best-risk-reward-profile-in

It's another company that looks poised to potentially take market share from the big boys. Risky (dilution being one of the largest risks), but if successful, in a few years the share price could be in the 100's of dollars (it's currently in the $3-4 range). It hasn't gone up too much yet since I first bought it (my first buy was actually higher than what it is now), so I'm considering buying more, especially if there is a dip.

Hello BrockStoker. As you seem to know your stuff in this area, do you have any views on Avacta Group? Apologies if you've mentioned it earlier as I haven't read the complete thread.

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Just posted, quite a fair write up of Agenus (which I hold):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357726-multiple-late-stage-cancer-therapies-agenus-inc-offers-best-risk-reward-profile-in

It's another company that looks poised to potentially take market share from the big boys. Risky (dilution being one of the largest risks), but if successful, in a few years the share price could be in the 100's of dollars (it's currently in the $3-4 range). It hasn't gone up too much yet since I first bought it (my first buy was actually higher than what it is now), so I'm considering buying more, especially if there is a dip.

Hello BrockStoker. As you seem to know your stuff in this area, do you have any views on Avacta Group? Apologies if you've mentioned it earlier as I haven't read the complete thread.

Moneyfoolish,

I haven't really looked at UK biotechs much in the past, but I guess similar principals apply. I had a quick look at the profile/statistics, so by no means very thorough, but it would be enough for me to discount it as non-investable for me personally on that basis. While it does look interesting in what it's doing, and it has some partnerships with larger companies (always good to see), one of them being Moderna (which I held till a few weeks back), it is just too small. The danger is that they may need funding at some point, which likely means a share dilution. It does not look like they are anywhere near close to being profitable so it could be a long (and quite possibly torturous) wait till they are.

That said, they are developing a covid-19 test (I'm guessing this is why your interest in them has been perked), and it looks to be progressing well. I notice the share price has gone up considerably, no doubt due to the test. That makes it potentially dangerous, with a lot of downside if there is a slip-up or if it's been over-bought. Hard to say if it's been over-bought without crunching the numbers - that makes it much more of gamble, with loads of potential downside. There might yet be considerable upside, but without knowing how much, I'd stay away.

If you are determined to gamble with it, then only bet what you can afford to lose IMHO. If you do decide to invest, watch out for a secondary offering - many biotechs have been diluting their shares to raise cash once their share price has peaked. One way to play it could be to wait, see if they announce a share split, then the share price will likely take a dip, and you could use that as an entry point potentially. It would still be a gamble, but buying in a dip might give you a little bit of a safety net. It's also a good idea to buy in small chunks, and try to average down your share price - eg, if you bought now, invest perhaps 1/2 or 1/3 of what you'd be comfortable with in total, wait for the offering (or a dip), then buy more. Either way, I find it's usually a mistake to go all in when you first invest in a stock, though there have also been times when I wish I'd bought more.

adindas

The big biotech pharmaceutical companies producing vaccine are rising in the hope that vaccine will be manufactured soon. Even Moderna who have seen the price have risen 300%+ is still going up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbSEzG9i6tw

BrockStoker

Yeah, I noticed Moderna's pop today. A shame I did not hold on a bit longer, but not going to loose sleep over a few hundred $ profit I might have had. Will be interesting to see what it does from here. I'm still waiting for BCRX to pop (added more shares, below $5 mostly, in the dip a couple of days back) with it's antiviral, if it ever does - either way, just need to wait.

I was going to post a portfolio update (not much has changed apart from I sold the last of my Clovis shares, crystallizing the largest loss by far so far, about £1K), but after an all nighter chasing comet C/2020 F3 NEOWISE Saturday night/Sunday morning, I neglected to collect any data, so gave up on that idea. I really can't do all nighters any more, but there are a few rare events when I couldn't stay indoors and live with myself. Totally OT, but here's one of the better images from that night.

Hope to be back with something towards the start of next week, but it is looking like there could be Arrowhead data due around that time, so I might wait for that.

adindas

BrockStoker said:

Yeah, I noticed Moderna's pop today. A shame I did not hold on a bit longer, but not going to loose sleep over a few hundred $ profit I might have had. Will be interesting to see what it does from here. I'm still waiting for BCRX to pop (added more shares, below $5 mostly, in the dip a couple of days back) with it's antiviral, if it ever does - either way, just need to wait.

I was going to post a portfolio update (not much has changed apart from I sold the last of my Clovis shares, crystallizing the largest loss by far so far, about £1K), but after an all nighter chasing comet C/2020 F3 NEOWISE Saturday night/Sunday morning, I neglected to collect any data, so gave up on that idea. I really can't do all nighters any more, but there are a few rare events when I couldn't stay indoors and live with myself. Totally OT, but here's one of the better images from that night.

Hope to be back with something towards the start of next week, but it is looking like there could be Arrowhead data due around that time, so I might wait for that.

Well arrowhead is not a surprise if you could catch it during the dip.

Many institutional investors, mutual funds including Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock have in in their portfolios. It is also under The S&P MidCap 400 Index anyway.

BrockStoker

It's also a major holding of XBI, which has helped push up the share price in recent weeks.

Came across this last night - Cramer interviewing Arrowhead CEO towards the end of last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc3SWmvwsRI

nnannaidoks

Hello. I am currently in the early stages of creating some exposure for the biotech space in Africa. Even though it is relatively underdeveloped, there is still a huge amount of potential in this space in the continent and many of the global biotech innovations can really be of great benefit to people in the continent. I will appreciate all help I can get. Right now, the best way to help is to follow my twitter account "africanbiotech" : https://twitter.com/africanbiotech, which exclusively focuses on highlighting biotech research and developments. With enough exposure, I hope to launch the platform this year. I accept all suggestions and constructive criticism in this journey. Special thanks to you all. Best wishes.

Moe_The_Bartender

BrockStoker said:

It's also a major holding of XBI, which has helped push up the share price in recent weeks.

Came across this last night - Cramer interviewing Arrowhead CEO towards the end of last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc3SWmvwsRI

1.43%?

adindas

I sold my postion in companies working on COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Glaxo Smithklein early last week with only a very tiny profit after listening the advice from "BrockStoker" .  Well not really, it is my own decision.

Regret it really as they keep rising even when the market sell off where many stock price pulled back lastweek. I might be looking a reentry point again later ...