Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

I think this news has been mentioned before, or perhaps discussions/estimates leading up to the decision, but I've forgotten, plus I had a thought.

So the EU is aiming for fleet emissions to be reduced by 100% by 2035, which is good, but not great. However, the 2030 target  is a fleet reduction of 55%, hmmmm? Assuming there is little ability to improve ICE emissions, other than a small gain from mild hybrids, which presumably all ICEV's will be before 2030, then roughly 50% of sales will need to be BEV's*. If sales are 50% BEV's, then you have a large drop in ICE sales, diseconomies of scale in ICE production and costs, and public awareness and acceptance of BEV's, plus any local laws and regs on emissions growing.

So 55% in 2030, may be as good as an end date for ICEV's? Which is only 7.5yrs away.

*I'm assuming by 2030 (or earlier) PHEV sales will be minimal due to BEV costs falling.

EU Parliament Backs 2035 End Date For Combustion Engine Cars

The European Parliament has voted to set a 2035 deadline for zero-emissions cars and vans — a significant step forward for climate action, air quality and the affordability of electric vehicles. Green group Transport & Environment called on EU environment ministers to confirm the effective end date for sales of new combustion engines when they meet on June 28.

Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at T&E, said: “The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change. Phasing out combustion engines is also a historic opportunity to help end our oil dependence and make us safer from despots. And it gives the certainty the car industry needs to ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers.”

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035. Conservatives, the far right and even some progressive MEPs rejected a higher 2030 goal or higher targets in the 2020s which would require manufacturers to ramp up sales of electric cars sooner. T&E said the weak benchmarks will not spur enough action by carmakers this decade to help member states hit their climate goals.

I think I posted a link to the Bloomberg NEV latest report that has the major European markets at 40-50% BEV in 2025 - and this from people who have actually studied the data of production plans, battery supply etc.  Surely Europe will be where Norway is now by late decade?

Yeah, I'd have thought so. So I don't think the EU decision is strong enough, but probably irrelevant, the direction of travel is obvious now, no more faffing with PHEV's, HFCV's, e-fuels etc, just a transition to the superior technology now, which is a relatively normal event, but always a fun shocker.

And having Norway (and China) show how to do it is helpful, might win over the US soon ...... and Toyota eventually? 

If current gas prices are maintained I can see suppliers diverting EVs to the US once they have reached the minimum quotas in other markets because of the level of demand (and profitability).  I suspect the wow of what the F150 lightening can do (plus those gas prices) is really gong to be a game changer.  I wonder what speed of transition the US grid can cope with?

JKenH

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

I think this news has been mentioned before, or perhaps discussions/estimates leading up to the decision, but I've forgotten, plus I had a thought.

So the EU is aiming for fleet emissions to be reduced by 100% by 2035, which is good, but not great. However, the 2030 target  is a fleet reduction of 55%, hmmmm? Assuming there is little ability to improve ICE emissions, other than a small gain from mild hybrids, which presumably all ICEV's will be before 2030, then roughly 50% of sales will need to be BEV's*. If sales are 50% BEV's, then you have a large drop in ICE sales, diseconomies of scale in ICE production and costs, and public awareness and acceptance of BEV's, plus any local laws and regs on emissions growing.

So 55% in 2030, may be as good as an end date for ICEV's? Which is only 7.5yrs away.

*I'm assuming by 2030 (or earlier) PHEV sales will be minimal due to BEV costs falling.

EU Parliament Backs 2035 End Date For Combustion Engine Cars

The European Parliament has voted to set a 2035 deadline for zero-emissions cars and vans — a significant step forward for climate action, air quality and the affordability of electric vehicles. Green group Transport & Environment called on EU environment ministers to confirm the effective end date for sales of new combustion engines when they meet on June 28.

Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at T&E, said: “The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change. Phasing out combustion engines is also a historic opportunity to help end our oil dependence and make us safer from despots. And it gives the certainty the car industry needs to ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers.”

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035. Conservatives, the far right and even some progressive MEPs rejected a higher 2030 goal or higher targets in the 2020s which would require manufacturers to ramp up sales of electric cars sooner. T&E said the weak benchmarks will not spur enough action by carmakers this decade to help member states hit their climate goals.

I think I posted a link to the Bloomberg NEV latest report that has the major European markets at 40-50% BEV in 2025 - and this from people who have actually studied the data of production plans, battery supply etc, not just extrapolated a curve.  Surely Europe will be where Norway is now by late decade?

Perhaps not. This article suggests 60% by 2030 but points out some of the headwinds.

Booming Electric Car Sales In Europe May Soon Face A Reality Check

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/12/31/booming-electric-car-sales-in-europe-may-soon-face-a-reality-check/

Martyn1981

I've waffled about work chargers before, but I really do think they are an important part of the BEV transition. A 7kW charger, during a work day would fill most BEV's with about a week's worth of mileage. Actually might even manage it in half a day, allowing for a lunchtime swap, so one charger for every 10 'BEV staff'?

Yep, just playing with the numbers, not a prediction, and only a starting point. Also, those with home charging, or alternatives at a better price* wouldn't need to use them. Perhaps a few 3phase chargers, which don't cost much more, and 22kW supply as some BEV's can already handle 11kW?

*I'm assuming that a fee, hopefully a fair one, will be charged.

Just a small caveat, the article mentions sockets, so it may include 3 pin plug granny charging, but that's OK, every little helps.

Britain’s charge point network is nearly twice as big as previously thought – thanks to workplace charging

There are nearly as many workplace charge points than public chargers for electric vehicles in the UK – nearly doubling the amount of infrastructure available to drivers. That’s according to a recent report on workplace chargers, which found there are 33,000 charging sockets at workplaces. Mobility group Transport & Environment, which commissioned the study, said that over a third of car and van miles are for commuting and business purposes, highlighting the need to require landowners to install charging where people work.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

I've waffled about work chargers before, but I really do think they are an important part of the BEV transition. A 7kW charger, during a work day would fill most BEV's with about a week's worth of mileage. Actually might even manage it in half a day, allowing for a lunchtime swap, so one charger for every 10 'BEV staff'?

Yep, just playing with the numbers, not a prediction, and only a starting point. Also, those with home charging, or alternatives at a better price* wouldn't need to use them. Perhaps a few 3phase chargers, which don't cost much more, and 22kW supply as some BEV's can already handle 11kW?

*I'm assuming that a fee, hopefully a fair one, will be charged.

Just a small caveat, the article mentions sockets, so it may include 3 pin plug granny charging, but that's OK, every little helps.

Britain’s charge point network is nearly twice as big as previously thought – thanks to workplace charging

There are nearly as many workplace charge points than public chargers for electric vehicles in the UK – nearly doubling the amount of infrastructure available to drivers. That’s according to a recent report on workplace chargers, which found there are 33,000 charging sockets at workplaces. Mobility group Transport & Environment, which commissioned the study, said that over a third of car and van miles are for commuting and business purposes, highlighting the need to require landowners to install charging where people work.

From the T&E press release

Although critics claim that the current network is not sufficient, the analysis shows that the existing public network has enough charge points for the number of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) currently on the roads in the UK. As long as the installation rates continue at pace, the country will be more than ready for higher targets to be adopted in the UK’s proposed Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate.

The experts have spoken. What on Earth are all those folk on forums and in the Daily Mail moaning about? 

Edit: an alternative point of view from Tesla Owners UK submission to CMA Electric vehicle charging market study.

The result is that a customer using MSAs is forced into a game of luck when travelling across the UK - will there be a free charger? Will I have to queue? Will it be working? How fast will the charger be for me? It is also feasible to be stranded due to inoperative chargers when so few are installed.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6038eee7e90e07056465312e/Tesla_Owners_Club_UK.pdf

silverwhistle

michaels said:

If current gas prices are maintained I can see suppliers diverting EVs to the US once they have reached the minimum quotas in other markets because of the level of demand (and profitability).  I suspect the wow of what the F150 lightening can do (plus those gas prices) is really gong to be a game changer.  I wonder what speed of transition the US grid can cope with?

I also wonder what synergy can be obtained there with EVs and domestic solar on generally larger roofs. Higher fuel costs must be concentrating a few minds, and if both PV and EV are acquired at the same time the impact on their grid may be a lot less. In the UK, National Grid have said they are not too concerned about the overall load from EVs, although certainly some local grid reinforcement may be needed, particularly to cope with charging hubs.

1961Nick

Making G99 a notification process rather than an approval process might be a useful step forward. The onus would then be on the DNO to make sure the local network meets the demands put upon it.

JKenH

I had Northern Powergrid out yesterday to investigate the over voltage at my house. After much sucking through teeth and looking at the transformer on the pole in the field the engineer decided to pass it on to someone else. He did seem to agree that the problem possibly was related to too much solar PV locally (5 houses with it ) so I do have my worries that our local network will be able to cope once we all have electric cars and heating. I saw 259.1 volts at the inverter on Wednesday. 

JKenH

silverwhistle said:

michaels said:

If current gas prices are maintained I can see suppliers diverting EVs to the US once they have reached the minimum quotas in other markets because of the level of demand (and profitability).  I suspect the wow of what the F150 lightening can do (plus those gas prices) is really gong to be a game changer.  I wonder what speed of transition the US grid can cope with?

I also wonder what synergy can be obtained there with EVs and domestic solar on generally larger roofs. Higher fuel costs must be concentrating a few minds, and if both PV and EV are acquired at the same time the impact on their grid may be a lot less. In the UK, National Grid have said they are not too concerned about the overall load from EVs, although certainly some local grid reinforcement may be needed, particularly to cope with charging hubs.

I think the guy at National Grid knows he will have moved on before the proverbial hits the fan. He certainly wouldn’t be in his job now if he said the grid can’t cope. The secret of success is to say what people want to hear,  collect the big salary, and move on before the chickens come home to roost. 

1961Nick

JKenH said:

I had Northern Powergrid out yesterday to investigate the over voltage at my house. After much sucking through teeth and looking at the transformer on the pole in the field the engineer decided to pass it on to someone else. He did seem to agree that the problem possibly was related to too much solar PV locally (5 houses with it ) so I do have my worries that our local network will be able to cope once we all have electric cars and heating. I saw 259.1 volts at the inverter on Wednesday. 

That's 6.1v more than they're allowed so something should be done fairly quickly.

Can you tell how many houses are on that transformer that don't have pv?

Exiled_Tyke

JKenH said:

silverwhistle said:

michaels said:

If current gas prices are maintained I can see suppliers diverting EVs to the US once they have reached the minimum quotas in other markets because of the level of demand (and profitability).  I suspect the wow of what the F150 lightening can do (plus those gas prices) is really gong to be a game changer.  I wonder what speed of transition the US grid can cope with?

I also wonder what synergy can be obtained there with EVs and domestic solar on generally larger roofs. Higher fuel costs must be concentrating a few minds, and if both PV and EV are acquired at the same time the impact on their grid may be a lot less. In the UK, National Grid have said they are not too concerned about the overall load from EVs, although certainly some local grid reinforcement may be needed, particularly to cope with charging hubs.

I think the guy at National Grid knows he will have moved on before the proverbial hits the fan. He certainly wouldn’t be in his job now if he said the grid can’t cope. The secret of success is to say what people want to hear,  collect the big salary, and move on before the chickens come home to roost. 

I presume you are talking about my good friend David Wright? I'll pass on your good wishes!