Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

I believe the expression is - "S**t's getting real!" - whether it's a transition to EV's or away from FF's, there's a lot of money and company value to be made ....... or lost?

I would imagine that most car manufacturers would agree with that analysis but are finding the transition difficult to say the least. Committing to manufacturing EVs might be the easy (although expensive) part of the equation. Finding a source for the batteries or the minerals to manufacture batteries is a much harder problem & one that's getting worse rather than better. Tesla appear to be mopping up a big percentage of any new battery capacity & are probably viewed as the 'preferred' customer due to their financial strength & trajectory. Companies like the self proclaimed "market leader in electric vehicles" GM, look to be heading towards another chapter 11 & that must make it difficult to secure long term contracts for a valuable resource. Any lasting recession while legacy auto makes the transition to EVs is going to decimate balance sheets & drain reserves. If ICE margins come under pressure during the transition, bankruptcy isn't out of the question. Some manufacturers appear to be working towards the 2030 & 2035 targets set by legislators, but have failed to acknowledge that the change is happening a lot faster than that. BEV & plug in PHEV sales in some counties are already likely to exceed 50% within 12 months (supply permitting).

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I believe the expression is - "S**t's getting real!" - whether it's a transition to EV's or away from FF's, there's a lot of money and company value to be made ....... or lost?

I would imagine that most car manufacturers would agree with that analysis but are finding the transition difficult to say the least. Committing to manufacturing EVs might be the easy (although expensive) part of the equation. Finding a source for the batteries or the minerals to manufacture batteries is a much harder problem & one that's getting worse rather than better. Tesla appear to be mopping up a big percentage of any new battery capacity & are probably viewed as the 'preferred' customer due to their financial strength & trajectory. Companies like the self proclaimed "market leader in electric vehicles" GM, look to be heading towards another chapter 11 & that must make it difficult to secure long term contracts for a valuable resource. Any lasting recession while legacy auto makes the transition to EVs is going to decimate balance sheets & drain reserves. If ICE margins come under pressure during the transition, bankruptcy isn't out of the question. Some manufacturers appear to be working towards the 2030 & 2035 targets set by legislators, but have failed to acknowledge that the change is happening a lot faster than that. BEV & plug in PHEV sales in some counties are already likely to exceed 50% within 12 months (supply permitting).

Totally agree, and this article (also today) pretty much covers your last two sentences (my bold) in a lot of detail.

My bet is also that the lost sales and revenues from Covid, followed by chip and part shortages, followed by economic (and political / Ukraine) uncertainty, are permanently lost. Obviously there's just as much chance I'm wrong, and ICE sales will bounce back up to fill the shortfall and lost sales, but I suspect there's enough doubt about ICEV's and their future now to mean ICE sales won't recover much if at all, before a terminal decline.

All down to supply now, and BEV prices, but that seems tied back to supply especially batts.

Road To Zero Emissions Now Clear For Road Traffic

The timeline of the transition is another matter. It does still escape many people. Asking the public at large is not really helpful. They can not answer questions about a new technology they know little about. But that car journalists, policymakers, and even the top management of the legacy OEMs are confused is a big problem.

There are two timelines important in the transition. The first is the best known. It is the exponential timeline of the transition of the new car market, also known as “the S-curve.” The second is the often overlooked, far less sexy, linear transition of the fleet of cars on the street.

The legacy OEMs must start making BEVs in time to survive, before the steep part of the S-curve makes them obsolete. Some big brands will be reduced to only a valuable name, like Bugatti or Hispano-Suiza. Others will struggle for years to either regain some of their former luster or to perish. Only those that are putting everything they have in building BEV production capacity have a chance to survive and prosper.

The complete transition to renewable energy and zero emissions is an Herculean task, but the transition of road transport is easy-peasy compared to that and mostly in the pocket by the end of this decade.

JKenH

May new car market declines as supply constraints hold back deliveries

• UK new car registrations decline -20.6% to 124,394 units in second weakest May in three decades after locked-down 2020, as components shortages impact vehicle availability despite demand.
• Battery electric vehicle uptake increases by 17.7%, representing 12.4% of the month’s registrations, as manufacturers prioritise their supply.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/06/may-new-car-market-declines-as-supply-constraints-hold-back-deliveries/

JKenH

New van registrations fall for fifth consecutive month as supply squeeze continues

• New light commercial vehicle registrations fall to 22,000, down -25.1% on last year’s record-breaking May.
• 39,209 fewer vans registered year-to-date as shortages of key components continue to restrict production.
• Electric van registrations up 62.7% to 6,085 units in first five months of 2022.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/06/new-van-registrations-fall-for-fifth-consecutive-month-as-supply-squeeze-continues/

michaels

JKenH said:

May new car market declines as supply constraints hold back deliveries

• UK new car registrations decline -20.6% to 124,394 units in second weakest May in three decades after locked-down 2020, as components shortages impact vehicle availability despite demand.
• Battery electric vehicle uptake increases by 17.7%, representing 12.4% of the month’s registrations, as manufacturers prioritise their supply.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/06/may-new-car-market-declines-as-supply-constraints-hold-back-deliveries/

Those missing 15k Shanghai Teslas really skewed the market this month.....

JKenH

Tesla’s share of the global electric vehicle market slipped to the lowest in three years as lockdowns in Shanghai weighed on production, according to an analyst.

It left the Texas-based company with 10pc of the overall market, based on Mr Levy’s analysis of data from EV-Volumes.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/08/ftse-100-markets-live-news-rail-strike-june-cost-living/

Martyn1981

I think this news has been mentioned before, or perhaps discussions/estimates leading up to the decision, but I've forgotten, plus I had a thought.

So the EU is aiming for fleet emissions to be reduced by 100% by 2035, which is good, but not great. However, the 2030 target  is a fleet reduction of 55%, hmmmm? Assuming there is little ability to improve ICE emissions, other than a small gain from mild hybrids, which presumably all ICEV's will be before 2030, then roughly 50% of sales will need to be BEV's*. If sales are 50% BEV's, then you have a large drop in ICE sales, diseconomies of scale in ICE production and costs, and public awareness and acceptance of BEV's, plus any local laws and regs on emissions growing.

So 55% in 2030, may be as good as an end date for ICEV's? Which is only 7.5yrs away.

*I'm assuming by 2030 (or earlier) PHEV sales will be minimal due to BEV costs falling.

EU Parliament Backs 2035 End Date For Combustion Engine Cars

The European Parliament has voted to set a 2035 deadline for zero-emissions cars and vans — a significant step forward for climate action, air quality and the affordability of electric vehicles. Green group Transport & Environment called on EU environment ministers to confirm the effective end date for sales of new combustion engines when they meet on June 28.

Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at T&E, said: “The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change. Phasing out combustion engines is also a historic opportunity to help end our oil dependence and make us safer from despots. And it gives the certainty the car industry needs to ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers.”

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035. Conservatives, the far right and even some progressive MEPs rejected a higher 2030 goal or higher targets in the 2020s which would require manufacturers to ramp up sales of electric cars sooner. T&E said the weak benchmarks will not spur enough action by carmakers this decade to help member states hit their climate goals.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

I think this news has been mentioned before, or perhaps discussions/estimates leading up to the decision, but I've forgotten, plus I had a thought.

So the EU is aiming for fleet emissions to be reduced by 100% by 2035, which is good, but not great. However, the 2030 target  is a fleet reduction of 55%, hmmmm? Assuming there is little ability to improve ICE emissions, other than a small gain from mild hybrids, which presumably all ICEV's will be before 2030, then roughly 50% of sales will need to be BEV's*. If sales are 50% BEV's, then you have a large drop in ICE sales, diseconomies of scale in ICE production and costs, and public awareness and acceptance of BEV's, plus any local laws and regs on emissions growing.

So 55% in 2030, may be as good as an end date for ICEV's? Which is only 7.5yrs away.

*I'm assuming by 2030 (or earlier) PHEV sales will be minimal due to BEV costs falling.

EU Parliament Backs 2035 End Date For Combustion Engine Cars

The European Parliament has voted to set a 2035 deadline for zero-emissions cars and vans — a significant step forward for climate action, air quality and the affordability of electric vehicles. Green group Transport & Environment called on EU environment ministers to confirm the effective end date for sales of new combustion engines when they meet on June 28.

Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at T&E, said: “The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change. Phasing out combustion engines is also a historic opportunity to help end our oil dependence and make us safer from despots. And it gives the certainty the car industry needs to ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers.”

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035. Conservatives, the far right and even some progressive MEPs rejected a higher 2030 goal or higher targets in the 2020s which would require manufacturers to ramp up sales of electric cars sooner. T&E said the weak benchmarks will not spur enough action by carmakers this decade to help member states hit their climate goals.

That may well be the case in Europe (and China) but the rest of the world is making slow progress away from ICE vehicles. Meanwhile many European and South Korean manufacturers are making it clear that they will cease manufacturing ICE vehicles leaving few manufacturers left to meet demand in those parts of the world where demand still exists for ICE vehicles. 

We are assuming lower production volumes but with less ICE players this might not be the case for some time.  Lower production volumes, however, need not necessarily mean less profit. Profitability depends on both costs and selling price. As we have seen with both EVs and ICEvs the chip shortage has reduced supply and given the manufacturers the opportunity to raise prices and turn in decent profits. The problem for ICEv manufacturers had been global oversupply which led to heavy discounting but this has been temporarily rectified. Materials for manufacturing EVs have increased in cost, perhaps, more than for ICEs and given strong EV demand, EV manufacturers are upping their prices. This is in turn lifting ICE prices and ICE profits. If we are now at genuine 25% EV demand then that is still 75% ICE demand. ICE manufacturers have the opportunity to make hay while the sun shines. By 2030 if we are at 50% EV sales we still have 50% ICE and just look at the list of manufacturers who have said they will stop selling ICEs by then. That’s still an awful lot of sales for the few manufacturers left. 

I don’t see any OEMs excluding EVs from their line up and as the balance of demands shifts to EVs so will manufacture. I have never seen the business case for manufacturers to make declarations of what they will or will not produce so far ahead of what actual demand is. A lot of it is about PR than future profitability. If you were struggling to sell cars and were losing money like Jaguar was or with a tarnished (dirty) reputation like VW then yes, let’s have a refresh, a change of direction, and send out a new corporate message but I don’t see the point of it for most manufacturers. Keep your options open and sell what makes you money now and in the near future and be flexible.  

Of course we all have a tendency to make predictions based on what we know now but as the past two years have shown everything can change very quickly. Whenever one makes predictions about some point in the future (eg 2035) it is a good idea to look back the same length of time and ask just how much of what we are seeing now in terms of car manufacture could have been predicted in 2009. EVs then were not a practical proposition. Ford dominated UK car sales with the Fiesta and Focus  and along with Vauxhall took 6 of the top 10 spots. There was not a Japanese or Korean car on the list let alone an American EV! In 13 years we have seen huge swings in profitability of companies in the car industry with ICE manufacturers posting record profits on reduced sales after huge losses a year earlier. Executives of two of the leading automotive companies in the world are either in jail or on the run and diesel cars once thought to be climate savers are pariahs. We gave also seen the fossil fuel industry written off 

Change is occuring at an ever accelerating rate and will continue to do so and planning ahead is fraught with unknowns. Ditching what makes you profit before you need to might work or it may not but given the supply constraints facing the expansion required by the EV industry it may be worthwhile hedging one’s bets for a little longer. If you can’t build enough EVs then customers will have to buy ICE cars and legislation may have to be rolled back a few years. Who knows?

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

I think this news has been mentioned before, or perhaps discussions/estimates leading up to the decision, but I've forgotten, plus I had a thought.

So the EU is aiming for fleet emissions to be reduced by 100% by 2035, which is good, but not great. However, the 2030 target  is a fleet reduction of 55%, hmmmm? Assuming there is little ability to improve ICE emissions, other than a small gain from mild hybrids, which presumably all ICEV's will be before 2030, then roughly 50% of sales will need to be BEV's*. If sales are 50% BEV's, then you have a large drop in ICE sales, diseconomies of scale in ICE production and costs, and public awareness and acceptance of BEV's, plus any local laws and regs on emissions growing.

So 55% in 2030, may be as good as an end date for ICEV's? Which is only 7.5yrs away.

*I'm assuming by 2030 (or earlier) PHEV sales will be minimal due to BEV costs falling.

EU Parliament Backs 2035 End Date For Combustion Engine Cars

The European Parliament has voted to set a 2035 deadline for zero-emissions cars and vans — a significant step forward for climate action, air quality and the affordability of electric vehicles. Green group Transport & Environment called on EU environment ministers to confirm the effective end date for sales of new combustion engines when they meet on June 28.

Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at T&E, said: “The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change. Phasing out combustion engines is also a historic opportunity to help end our oil dependence and make us safer from despots. And it gives the certainty the car industry needs to ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers.”

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035. Conservatives, the far right and even some progressive MEPs rejected a higher 2030 goal or higher targets in the 2020s which would require manufacturers to ramp up sales of electric cars sooner. T&E said the weak benchmarks will not spur enough action by carmakers this decade to help member states hit their climate goals.

I think I posted a link to the Bloomberg NEV latest report that has the major European markets at 40-50% BEV in 2025 - and this from people who have actually studied the data of production plans, battery supply etc, not just extrapolated a curve.  Surely Europe will be where Norway is now by late decade?

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

I think this news has been mentioned before, or perhaps discussions/estimates leading up to the decision, but I've forgotten, plus I had a thought.

So the EU is aiming for fleet emissions to be reduced by 100% by 2035, which is good, but not great. However, the 2030 target  is a fleet reduction of 55%, hmmmm? Assuming there is little ability to improve ICE emissions, other than a small gain from mild hybrids, which presumably all ICEV's will be before 2030, then roughly 50% of sales will need to be BEV's*. If sales are 50% BEV's, then you have a large drop in ICE sales, diseconomies of scale in ICE production and costs, and public awareness and acceptance of BEV's, plus any local laws and regs on emissions growing.

So 55% in 2030, may be as good as an end date for ICEV's? Which is only 7.5yrs away.

*I'm assuming by 2030 (or earlier) PHEV sales will be minimal due to BEV costs falling.

EU Parliament Backs 2035 End Date For Combustion Engine Cars

The European Parliament has voted to set a 2035 deadline for zero-emissions cars and vans — a significant step forward for climate action, air quality and the affordability of electric vehicles. Green group Transport & Environment called on EU environment ministers to confirm the effective end date for sales of new combustion engines when they meet on June 28.

Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at T&E, said: “The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change. Phasing out combustion engines is also a historic opportunity to help end our oil dependence and make us safer from despots. And it gives the certainty the car industry needs to ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers.”

MEPs voted to require carmakers to cut their average fleet emissions by 15% in 2025, compared to 2021, by 55% in 2030, and by 100% in 2035. Conservatives, the far right and even some progressive MEPs rejected a higher 2030 goal or higher targets in the 2020s which would require manufacturers to ramp up sales of electric cars sooner. T&E said the weak benchmarks will not spur enough action by carmakers this decade to help member states hit their climate goals.

I think I posted a link to the Bloomberg NEV latest report that has the major European markets at 40-50% BEV in 2025 - and this from people who have actually studied the data of production plans, battery supply etc.  Surely Europe will be where Norway is now by late decade?

Yeah, I'd have thought so. So I don't think the EU decision is strong enough, but probably irrelevant, the direction of travel is obvious now, no more faffing with PHEV's, HFCV's, e-fuels etc, just a transition to the superior technology now, which is a relatively normal event, but always a fun shocker.

And having Norway (and China) show how to do it is helpful, might win over the US soon ...... and Toyota eventually?