The Alternative Green Energy Thread

QrizB

The Tom Scott video in particular should be quite easy to watch, although as it dates from 2016 it's looking forward to things that might have already happened.

Re the latter question, sorry, I had heard they were planning a gas-free trial but I don't know why it hasn't happened yet or when it might take place.

JKenH

QrizB said:

The Tom Scott video in particular should be quite easy to watch, although as it dates from 2016 it's looking forward to things that might have already happened.

Re the latter question, sorry, I had heard they were planning a gas-free trial but I don't know why it hasn't happened yet or when it might take place.

I have now had the chance to watch both videos (twice to make sure) but while the importance of inertia was recognised I didn’t hear anything that explained how the absence of inertia would be with dealt with. There was mention of spinning tops but nothing specific. 

Edit: I’ve now managed to join up the dots. The Pathfinder project referred to in the NESO video is the synchronous capacitor programme mentioned in one of the other links. 

It is estimated that the cost to manage stability in England and Wales would cost an additional £14.9bn between 2025 and 2035 without these contracts in place. This is based on a comparison to the counter factual of the balancing mechanism over the 2025-2035 period, in which balancing actions such as constraints are used to maintain a percentage of fossil fuel power stations on the network to provide the equivalent inertia and short circuit level as provided by these contracts. These contracts are equivalent to six 300MW gas power plants, enabling the grid to remain stable without relying on fossil fuelled plants.

If I have understood this correctly for the £14.9bn we are getting the “equivalent inertia and short circuit level” as 6 x 30MW gas fired stations. I have struggled to find the cost of building a CCGT plant in the UK but Amarican figures suggest it works out ar around $1m/MWinstalled or around £750,000 per MW. On that basis the cost to build 1800 MW of CCGT capacity would be around £1.35bn. That’s less than one tenth of the investment in synchronous capacitors. Why are they so expensive. Would it not make sense from an economic point of view to build 1800MW of new CCGT capacity to provide the inertia and we still can call on them on low wind days for back up?

Magnitio

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

The Tom Scott video in particular should be quite easy to watch, although as it dates from 2016 it's looking forward to things that might have already happened.

Re the latter question, sorry, I had heard they were planning a gas-free trial but I don't know why it hasn't happened yet or when it might take place.

I have now had the chance to watch both videos (twice to make sure) but while the importance of inertia was recognised I didn’t hear anything that explained how the absence of inertia would be with dealt with. There was mention of spinning tops but nothing specific. 

I've posted before about the wealth of detailed and up-to-date information on the https://www.neso.energy website that details all of the challenges with moving to a low carbon grid. There are many articles on there of interest. Here's one:

https://www.neso.energy/document/368991/download

JKenH

Magnitio said:

UJKenH said:

QrizB said:

The Tom Scott video in particular should be quite easy to watch, although as it dates from 2016 it's looking forward to things that might have already happened.

Re the latter question, sorry, I had heard they were planning a gas-free trial but I don't know why it hasn't happened yet or when it might take place.

I have now had the chance to watch both videos (twice to make sure) but while the importance of inertia was recognised I didn’t hear anything that explained how the absence of inertia would be with dealt with. There was mention of spinning tops but nothing specific. 

I've posted before about the wealth of detailed and up-to-date information on the https://www.neso.energy website that details all of the challenges with moving to a low carbon grid. There are many articles on there of interest. Here's one:

https://www.neso.energy/document/368991/download

Thanks for that link. It is interesting how many times in the report on the Iberian black out mention is made if learning from it. For example, “The events in Iberia naturally provide a critical opportunity to learn and reflect on where we must continue to support existing work or reinforce where further action may be necessary.”
I think that indicates that we don’t know as much about how these systems operate in practice as we thought we did from modelling. 

Most of that report read as though it was written by the PR department and was notably thin on detail but keen to promote just what a good job NESO is doing:

In Great Britain (GB), NESO in conjunction with the energy sector has implemented rigorous planning, testing, monitoring and control measures to ensure the resilience of the power system. These measures include mitigations for some of the key issues reported leading up to and in response to the events of 28 April 2025, including, managing oscillations, voltage control, generator compliance testing, and coordinated restoration plans.

In GB, NESO will continue to build on existing planning, testing, and system monitoring capabilities, particularly in voltage management. Our ongoing stability pathfinder procurement will increase resilience further. Monitoring, data and asset availability from Transmission Owners (TOs) and driving improvements in this a space are also essential steps. Additionally, resilient communications between control centres, real-time data, and coordination between system operators and network owners must be prioritised.

By addressing these areas, NESO can ensure the continued resilience of the GB power system and maintain our ambition to be able to operate the system carbon-free. The lessons learned from the Iberian blackout will guide NESO in further strengthening our capabilities and ensuring a reliable and resilient power system for the future.

I did notice one comment in the report which I thought wasn’t right but I am sure NESO must know better than me - “In GB, oscillations are normally in the range of 5-12 Hz rather than 0.2-0.6Hz.” 

Croft12

"On a slightly related note, have you any idea why the proposed (very short) trial of running of the UK grid without gas generators hasn’t gone ahead as anticipated this year - or might it still happen? Perhaps on a windy autumnal weekend like this one?"

There is no 'trial' as such its simply the case of an plan/expectation that in 2025 the various technical hurdles to running w/o Fossil would have been passed such that if a suitable mix was on offer to the control room it would be able to run fossil free.

In the original forecasting Q4 was the highest chance. There is a long explanation as to why it may not have happened yet this year but the short answer is that if it doesn't its not going to be a long wait. The dots are mostly joined up for it.

thevilla

JKenH said:

Magnitio said:

UJKenH said:

QrizB said:

The Tom Scott video in particular should be quite easy to watch, although as it dates from 2016 it's looking forward to things that might have already happened.

Re the latter question, sorry, I had heard they were planning a gas-free trial but I don't know why it hasn't happened yet or when it might take place.

I have now had the chance to watch both videos (twice to make sure) but while the importance of inertia was recognised I didn’t hear anything that explained how the absence of inertia would be with dealt with. There was mention of spinning tops but nothing specific. 

I've posted before about the wealth of detailed and up-to-date information on the https://www.neso.energy website that details all of the challenges with moving to a low carbon grid. There are many articles on there of interest. Here's one:

https://www.neso.energy/document/368991/download

Thanks for that link. It is interesting how many times in the report on the Iberian black out mention is made if learning from it. For example, “The events in Iberia naturally provide a critical opportunity to learn and reflect on where we must continue to support existing work or reinforce where further action may be necessary.”
I think that indicates that we don’t know as much about how these systems operate in practice as we thought we did from modelling. 

Most of that report read as though it was written by the PR department and was notably thin on detail but keen to promote just what a good job NESO is doing:

In Great Britain (GB), NESO in conjunction with the energy sector has implemented rigorous planning, testing, monitoring and control measures to ensure the resilience of the power system. These measures include mitigations for some of the key issues reported leading up to and in response to the events of 28 April 2025, including, managing oscillations, voltage control, generator compliance testing, and coordinated restoration plans.

In GB, NESO will continue to build on existing planning, testing, and system monitoring capabilities, particularly in voltage management. Our ongoing stability pathfinder procurement will increase resilience further. Monitoring, data and asset availability from Transmission Owners (TOs) and driving improvements in this a space are also essential steps. Additionally, resilient communications between control centres, real-time data, and coordination between system operators and network owners must be prioritised.

By addressing these areas, NESO can ensure the continued resilience of the GB power system and maintain our ambition to be able to operate the system carbon-free. The lessons learned from the Iberian blackout will guide NESO in further strengthening our capabilities and ensuring a reliable and resilient power system for the future.

I did notice one comment in the report which I thought wasn’t right but I am sure NESO must know better than me - “In GB, oscillations are normally in the range of 5-12 Hz rather than 0.2-0.6Hz.” 

I think the oscillations referred to are voltage changes across the whole grid. The Iberian grid is directly connected to the European grid and extends over a couple of thousand miles. The UKs is only a few hundred. 

This video may be a bit out of date since subsequent reports have been released.

https://youtu.be/DK8mw07DcPQ?si=1t0E64EbaMxJFGy9

JKenH

Ok, controversial one here. Alarmist report in the Guardian.

Rising heat kills one person a minute worldwide, major report reveals

The report says the rate of heat-related deaths has surged by 23% since the 1990s, even after accounting for increases in populations, to an average of 546,000 a year between 2012 and 2021.

Unfortunately thin on actual facts. I would like to know the criteria adopted to identify heat related deaths. I have seen it reported that cold weather kills more people than hot weather so we might expect to see some reduction in deaths in cold countries. This isn’t mentioned in the Guardian article; I wonder if it is in the report.

The report also says 

Reduced coal burning has saved about 400 lives a day in the last decade, the report says, and renewable energy production is rising fast. But the experts say a healthy future is impossible if fossil fuels continue to be financed at current rates.

Has coal consumption actually reduced in the last decade? I asked Google: 

In the decade from 2014 to 2024, global coal consumption, after a period of fluctuation, rose to a record high of approximately 

8.79 billion tonnes in 2024. This increase was driven primarily by rising demand in emerging economies in Asia, including China and India, which offset significant declines in advanced economies like the European Union and the United States. 

It concerns me this is less a technical report than activist political campaigning (political in the sense of attempting to direct policy).

 Dr Marina Romanello, of University College London (UCL), who led the analysis, said: “This [report] paints a bleak and undeniable picture of the devastating health harms reaching all corners of the world. The destruction to lives and livelihoods will continue to escalate until we end our fossil fuel addiction.

“We’re seeing millions of deaths occurring needlessly every year because of our delay in mitigating climate change and our delay in adapting to the climate change that cannot be avoided. We’re seeing key leaders, governments and corporations backsliding on climate commitments and putting people increasingly in harm’s way.”

Edit: there is nothing wrong with campaigning for a cause - the concern is if an attempt is made to make out this is a scientific report, particularly one claiming to be the most comprehensive one to date on a subject. 

JKenH

So is this the middle ground that might finally bring some consensus between “deniers” and “zealots”? Bill Gates is no idiot. Perhaps he can steer us along that middle ground between business as usual and regime change. Hyperbole hasn’t worked - will common sense?

Bill Gates says climate crisis won’t cause ‘humanity’s demise’ in call to shift focus to ‘improving lives’

In the note on Monday, Gates said: “Although climate change will have serious consequences – particularly for people in the poorest countries – it will not lead to humanity’s demise. People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future.”

He said the Cop30 climate summit, which will bring together world leaders in the Brazilian rainforest city of Belém in November, was “a chance to refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives”.

“Although climate change will hurt poor people more than anyone else, for the vast majority of them it will not be the only or even the biggest threat to their lives and welfare,” Gates wrote.

“The biggest problems are poverty and disease, just as they always have been. Understanding this will let us focus our limited resources on interventions that will have the greatest impact for the most vulnerable people.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/28/bill-gates-climate-crisis-pivot

JKenH

This Telegraph article can be viewed on MSN (I think).

Record copper prices spark turmoil for green energy projects

Record-setting copper prices have sparked turmoil for wind and solar farm developers who face rising costs to build green energy projects.

Commodity analysts have warned that the cost of manufacturing renewable technologies – which rely heavily on copper – will surge after the industrial metal hit a record high on the London Metal Exchange.

The price rose as high as $11,200 (£8,500) a ton on Wednesday, extending its gains so far this year to more than 27pc. It is on track for its best year since 2017.

Although prices fell from their peak on Thursday – dipping to $11,183 a ton – they still remain elevated by historical standards.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said: “It will add costs to all [things] connected to electricity and not the least all things connected to renewable energy, power systems, transformers, EVs (electric vehicles).”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/31/record-copper-prices-spark-turmoil-for-green-energy-project/

JKenH

Finally, some acknowledgment that net zero policies are impacting business competitiveness.

Labour cuts electricity charges for factories after wave of closures

Factories will see hundreds of millions of pounds slashed off their energy bills after the Government stepped in to cut costs for Britain’s heavy industry.

Peter Kyle, the Business Secretary, confirmed plans to increase the discount on electricity network charges for energy intensive businesses to 90pc from 60pc from next year.

This scheme is expected to reduce the electricity bills of more than 7,000 British businesses by up to a quarter from 2027 by removing some net zero levies from their bills.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6071905/the-alternative-green-energy-thread/p166