What % of your portfolio is in UK stocks?

MK62

ZingPowZing wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I thought it apt to measure the effect of one thing on another in chronological order: Shakespeare's influence on Pinter rather than Pinter's influence on Shakespeare.

But you aren't measuring the effect of "one thing"......you are attempting to offer Brexit as the one and only cause of UK stock market indices relative underperformance....it's no doubt a factor (though many might suggest it's more the uncertainty around Brexit, rather than Brexit itself, and we all know who is responsible for prolonging that), but it's definitely not the only one.

But it is true, for example, that the threat of Brexit was already weighing negatively on £ before the referendum, insomuch as most (not all) currency traders rated the probability between 15% rising to 25%.

It's not true at all.......the markets were taken by surprise with the result of the referendum......hence the hissy fit on June 24th........nobody was really expecting a Leave result.
Sterling was actually at a year high vs the US$ on June 23rd......

In any case, I don't think MK62's prior stats, on their own, inspire much confidence in UK stocks.

As investors, we are more concerned with total return rather than just index performance......and the UK's stock market offers more of it's returns as income rather than just the growth which is reflected in the indices.....when you factor that in, the UK's stock market performance is not as poor, relatively speaking, as the FTSE index numbers alone might suggest - if you consider total return, the AllShare is up about 38% since the referendum - that's a c.10% annual return, not too shabby at all tbh, regardless of whether you could have made more invested elsewhere (though that's often the case anyway)

Fair enough though, it's still behind the US.....but it's been that way for most of the last decade....I'm simply rebutting the assertion that it's all down to Brexit....it's not!

[Deleted User]

MK62 wrote: »

But you aren't measuring the effect of "one thing"......you are attempting to offer Brexit as the one and only cause of UK stock market indices relative underperformance....it's no doubt a factor (though many might suggest it's more the uncertainty around Brexit, rather than Brexit itself, and we all know who is responsible for prolonging that), but it's definitely not the only one.

The only point from which to begin to measure the impact and radiation of a bomb is after it falls, not the three preceding years nor 2001-2007 as someone else stated.
Brexit has politicised many aspects of life in the UK, not least the economic news fed to the people by Eurosceptic affiliates: part of the narrative is that we are getting a dividend from a weak currency through an "export led boom" in the stock market. The relative performance of the UK stock market may come as a surprise to readers of the Mail or Express because it's not a figure that suits their agenda; but woe betide if it happens under a Labour Govt..

Aside from the fact that UK stocks, and funds, are underperforming in % terms, they are falling even further behind because they are denominated in a depreciating currency, which brings us to..

"It's not true at all.......the markets were taken by surprise with the result of the referendum......hence the hissy fit on June 24th........nobody was really expecting a Leave result.
Sterling was actually at a year high vs the US$ on June 23rd..."

You're partly right, sterling did rocket on false hopes after Nigel Farage tactically conceded defeat on referendum night, his pronouncement helping to make a lot of money for a select number of people ‘Il mattino ha l’oro in bocca’ to quote Crispin Odey.
That spike, the following day's crash (biggest ever one-day fall of a major currency) and every subsequent day's rise and fall of the pound according to the progress of Brexit, what message are they signalling to you about the merits of Brexit?
Someone upthread said that Brexit has had no discernible effect on his fortune. It has, he just is not aware of it. The value of your currency affects everything you can monetise: salary, savings, pension, property, and when £ depreciates it makes the British poorer in the world. Again, not a message you're going to see in the Daily Mail in today's circumstances.

BLB53

how do you reconcile your consequent active management strategy with the sentiments expressed in your signature?

I would like to update that but don't know how. Can anyone help with changing signatures?

eskbanker

BLB53 wrote: »

I would like to update that but don't know how. Can anyone help with changing signatures?

You should find an 'edit signature' link in your control panel, accessible via 'User CP' in the menu further up the page (dependent on which version of the site you're using), but obviously the point of my post was to question why you're happy to go active while you're asserting that:

If you choose index funds you can never outperform the market.
If you choose managed funds there's a high probability you will underperform index funds.

Have you had a change of heart on these statements?!

BLB53

Have you had a change of heart on these statements?!

I would prefer to stick with more globally diverse index funds but as they all contain the big oil majors such as Exxon and Shell I can no longer stay with this. I am hoping more climate-friendly offerings will be coming to the market for UK investors next year but until that happens I prefer to support the renewable energy infrastructure trusts.

I like a decent return but not from companies that are compromising life as we know it. I know a handful of investors ditching these stocks will not move the climate dial very far but there are signs that big pension funds and local authorities are now divesting away from fossil fuels so the more this happens it gains momentum and makes the oil majors less investable and more risky.

Thanks...signature now changed!

Thrugelmir

BLB53 wrote: »

but there are signs that big pension funds and local authorities are now divesting away from fossil fuels so the more this happens it gains momentum and makes the oil majors less investable and more risky.

Have you likewise boycotted companies that use oil in the manufacture of their products or provision of their services?

BLB53

Have you likewise boycotted companies that use oil in the manufacture of their products or provision of their services?

You may wish to take note of your own signature...this issue will be increasingly important for everyone, including us investors.

Thrugelmir

BLB53 wrote: »

You may wish to take note of your own signature...this issue will be increasingly important for everyone, including us investors.

In no way underestimating the task that lies ahead. I'm intrigued as to why certain energy companies have been singled out for particular attention.

DairyQueen

ZingPowZing wrote: »

Someone upthread said that Brexit has had no discernible effect on his fortune. It has, he just is not aware of it. The value of your currency affects everything you can monetise: salary, savings, pension, property, and when £ depreciates it makes the British poorer in the world. Again, not a message you're going to see in the Daily Mail in today's circumstances.

On previous posts you reveal that you transferred your DB as an insistent client, and believe that you can out-perform global markets by investing in single company shares. Obviously you know something that the rest of us don't. This extends to an interesting reading of politics past and present.

You are of the opinion that a left-wing government will be good for the UK economy and that Brexit will be a national disaster. Unlike you, I have no crystal ball that reveals the economic future of the UK, whether in/out of the EU.

However, I have a long memory. The last time that the UK was poorer relative to citizens of other developed economies was in the 1970s, and it was the direct result of the policies of a succession of never-mourned, left-wing Labour governments. The interlude of the weak Heath government hardly made a dent in the resulting mess.

Personally, I don't relish a return of the constant strikes that resulted from too-powerful TUs pointing a gun at the head of the Heath government and dictating to the puppet Labour governments that they controlled from 1964 through 1979.

Public sector always on strike. Our dead went unburied. Piles of rubbish lay uncollected in the streets for weeks. Inflation at 20% and record unemployment. The UK was so indebted that the IMF refused to loan us more money. Coal miners on strike whenever their pay demands were challenged. The result of that? Electricity rationed to 3 days per week. Pubs were closed and TV had to shut down at 10:30p.m.

Who campaigned against the UK joining the EU? Oh yes.... the Labour Party.

Anyone too young to recall the barrel of laughs under the last left-Labour government may be ideologically inclined to vote for them. If Labour wins this election then those same youngsters will be paying the price during their productive years. Me? I'll be an oldie or dead. I had the good fortune to spend my productive years under a decades-long run of Tory and moderate Labour governments. In the time I have left, Corbyn's bunch of economy-crushing henchmen will be hard-pressed to separate me from the assets I have worked hard throughout my life to accumulate.

No doubt they will do their best.

[Deleted User]

Dairy Queen - To your first point, there is a dedicated thread ZingPowZing v Bowlhead thread, testing that very proposition. No doubt to be revived.

3 1/2% of lost GDP post-Brexit is the kindest forecast, the scarier ones have been suppressed by Govt.You don't need a crystal ball to reveal the economic future of the country, you can see a train coming.

The rest sounds a bit cranky.