Would 4 years of Corbyn Crash the London Market?

elliotwave

Labour seem to be hell-bent on attacking HPI. Reading through their housing policy document there are a whole raft of other policies on top of those precied below. Of course these are not all fully formed, but it points to 4 years of a Labour government as a blow to Londons overheated market...


* Labour housing policy document statements:-

- Land price stabilisation
We recommend that a Labour government should set an explicit goal to stabilise
house prices, so that wages can catch up and the house-price-to-income ratio can
gradually fall. As the problem of house price inflation is, at root, a problem
of residential land price inflation, this is also a goal to stabilise land prices.
- Common Ground Trust is as a non-profit institution using tax payer money to buy the land underlying
a house
- On Buy to Let ... We recommend major reforms of the private rented sector (Chapter 3). For example,
tenancies should be open-ended... There should be a cap on annual permissible rent increases
- social housing building programme to infinity.
- "Macroprudential" supervision. The Bank of England should use credit guidance and other macroprudential tools
to encourage a shift in bank lending away from real estate, and towards more
strategically useful sectors of the economy (Chapter 3). Once house prices are
stabilised, and the house-price-to-income ratio starts to fall, the maximum loan-toincome and loan-to-value ratios should be tightened, to prevent any future debtfuelled reinflation of house prices. Supplementary measures will be needed to prevent
this from disproportionately affecting the less well-off.
- New national ‘progressive property tax’ on every home. Labour’s plan is to send you an annual tax bill based on the value of your house, with homeowners charged more if they invested more into their home. In London, the average house price is £463,283. For the average London homeowner, then, the annual homes tax bill would be £3,243 per year.
- A 'Right to Buy' for the private rented sector, allowing tenants to purchase their landlord’s property at a discount
- New levy on second homes
- Stamp Duty Land Tax should be phased out for those buying homes to live in themselves, and capital gains tax for second homes and investment properties should be increased.
- Land Compensation Act reform. Corporations and other public authorities to acquire land at prices closer to its current use value, rather than its potential future residential value. This could reduce the cost of building genuinely affordable housing by up to 50%

Arklight

Oh god no. Imagine if housing was affordable.

Homelessness might even go down.

Communism.

James1968

Most of it makes good sense. However, rtb for private sector won't work well.
Landlords could simply add a clause to any sale giving them first refusal upon resale of the property at a future date at the same discount as the original sale.

I can see why this was included as many local Councils (including mine) are setting up limited companies to build new social housing stock in order to take it out of rtb.

Zero_Sum

Problem being he's a London MP so he's not going to divert public investment away from London & out to the regions. Which is what really needs to happen to benefit the whole country. So London house prices will still be artficially too high.

Thrugelmir

Nothing fundamentally wrong in much of what is proposed. Though a "progressive property tax" sounds like a raid to fund their other ambitions. Rather than an attempt to make property ownership more affordable. Plenty of people are asset rich, cash poor through no fault of their own, i.e. living in the same house for decades.

James1968

isn't progressive property tax just Council Tax modified?. When the Tories originally launched ct, they based it on the value of each property.

Thrugelmir

James1968 wrote: »

isn't progressive property tax just Council Tax modified?. When the Tories originally launched ct, they based it on the value of each property.

Poll tax was Mrs T's greatest miscalculation. Alienated the middle class, i.e. her core support. Corbyn & Co may find it equally as challenging. Given the 46 seats it holds in London constituencies.

Having said that the challenge is placing accurate values on properties in the first place.

BobQ

There are many reasons not to vote Labour but their housing policy is not one of them. It makes a lot of sense.

What would 4 years of Johnson do to London prices? Their policy is about selling off housing association properties and doing nothing to upset private land owners. Since 2010 they have built 430,000 allegedly affordable homes (often by helping wealthy people with various Help to Buy schemes). But 21,500 affordable homes a year since 2010 across the whole country is hardly a success at a time when interest rates are so low that it would be easy to build 5 times that number a year.

elliotwave

BobQ wrote: »

There are many reasons not to vote Labour but their housing policy is not one of them. It makes a lot of sense.

I agree in essence. I am not saying everything they say is bad or wrong. Contrary to what most might believe, I think both parties try to do what they think will help people, but, both just seem to take things too far and end up getting it all wrong!

HTB and other schemes haven't really solved systemic issues in housing, but have made things worse. So yes the Tories screwed that one up. When it comes to housing policy there is no black or white between the two main parties in terms of sound policy, but it seems to me that the shades of grey with the Labour Party in recent years have become a lot darker ....enough to trigger a house price correction due to the overzealous drive to do what they think is 'right' and the evidence from the policy above surely shows this quite clearly?

BobQ wrote: »

What would 4 years of Johnson do to London prices? Their policy is about selling off housing association properties and doing nothing to upset private land owners. Since 2010 they have built 430,000 allegedly affordable homes (often by helping wealthy people with various Help to Buy schemes). But 21,500 affordable homes a year since 2010 across the whole country is hardly a success at a time when interest rates are so low that it would be easy to build 5 times that number a year.

But RTB on HA properties would surely be supported by Labour if they are going to support RTB on private properties?... criteria TBC of course, but it shows to what levels Labour are willing to go on this issue?

As far as the claims about the number of properties they are going to build... both parties seem to be locked into a tradition of who can lie the best about how many they are going to build, only to backtrack when the economic reality hits!

Malthusian

Arklight wrote: »

Oh god no. Imagine if housing was affordable.

Homelessness might even go down.

Homeless people in the UK are given housing for free by the council, so the price of housing is completely irrelevant to homelessness in the UK.

Anyone who goes on about house prices in a discussion of homelessness in the UK is saying that they don't care about the homeless, as they are trying to change the subject from a mental health care issue to how they want someone to subsidise their rent.

It's very similar to how if you try to have a conversation about the care crisis, people butt in saying "I don't care about that, I want to talk about how the taxpayer should subsidise my inheritance".

The-Joker

elliotwave wrote: »

Labour seem to be hell-bent on attacking HPI. Reading through their housing policy document there are a whole raft of other policies on top of those precied below. Of course these are not all fully formed, but it points to 4 years of a Labour government as a blow to Londons overheated market...


* Labour housing policy document statements:-

- Land price stabilisation
We recommend that a Labour government should set an explicit goal to stabilise
house prices, so that wages can catch up and the house-price-to-income ratio can
gradually fall. As the problem of house price inflation is, at root, a problem
of residential land price inflation, this is also a goal to stabilise land prices.
- Common Ground Trust is as a non-profit institution using tax payer money to buy the land underlying
a house
- On Buy to Let ... We recommend major reforms of the private rented sector (Chapter 3). For example,
tenancies should be open-ended... There should be a cap on annual permissible rent increases
- social housing building programme to infinity.
- "Macroprudential" supervision. The Bank of England should use credit guidance and other macroprudential tools
to encourage a shift in bank lending away from real estate, and towards more
strategically useful sectors of the economy (Chapter 3). Once house prices are
stabilised, and the house-price-to-income ratio starts to fall, the maximum loan-toincome and loan-to-value ratios should be tightened, to prevent any future debtfuelled reinflation of house prices. Supplementary measures will be needed to prevent
this from disproportionately affecting the less well-off.
- New national ‘progressive property tax’ on every home. Labour’s plan is to send you an annual tax bill based on the value of your house, with homeowners charged more if they invested more into their home. In London, the average house price is £463,283. For the average London homeowner, then, the annual homes tax bill would be £3,243 per year.
- A 'Right to Buy' for the private rented sector, allowing tenants to purchase their landlord’s property at a discount
- New levy on second homes
- Stamp Duty Land Tax should be phased out for those buying homes to live in themselves, and capital gains tax for second homes and investment properties should be increased.
- Land Compensation Act reform. Corporations and other public authorities to acquire land at prices closer to its current use value, rather than its potential future residential value. This could reduce the cost of building genuinely affordable housing by up to 50%

Hope so

There are a lot of voters who want lower property prices

Namely all the renters who vote