Panorama 21/10/19

itwasntme001

bostonerimus wrote: »

There's many bulls and bears in the models. I'm sure the investing landscape will change over the next 30 years, but I'll stick with broad index trackers and won't worry about the future because it's futile.

There are but perhaps not enough and certainly not enough with differing volatilities as that is one of the two crucial measures it is trying to capture.


Everyone sticks to what they are comfortable with. As long as you realize things can and probably will go badly over a long time horizon from time to time and may very well test the presumptions you make about investing, then go for it.

Thrugelmir

Zola. wrote: »

Is it worth a watch or is everything we know covered in these threads?

Always worth a watch (or a listen). We all pick up on different aspects.

Eco_Miser

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Bonds are just government debt

Not just government debt; also corporate debt, sometimes rather dodgy, and sometimes just a fixed rate, fixed term savings account.

bostonerimus

itwasntme001 wrote: »

There are but perhaps not enough and certainly not enough with differing volatilities as that is one of the two crucial measures it is trying to capture.


Everyone sticks to what they are comfortable with. As long as you realize things can and probably will go badly over a long time horizon from time to time and may very well test the presumptions you make about investing, then go for it.

Well as I started investing in 1987 I'm familiar with those bad times. The danger in down markets isn't so much the market, but the way people react to it

Prism

newbinvestor wrote: »

I have sympathy for those who have lost money but it is a reminder why I personally, will not put more than 5% of my portfolio is any one fund.

Personally I don't like enough funds to split my portfolio over. 5% would mean finding at least 40. I have about 8 on my list

Mistermeaner

Prism wrote: »

Personally I don't like enough funds to split my portfolio over. 5% would mean finding at least 40. I have about 8 on my list

You have 200% invested ?

bostonerimus

newbinvestor wrote: »

I have sympathy for those who have lost money but it is a reminder why I personally, will not put more than 5% of my portfolio is any one fund.

So you should have at least 20 funds then...man what a pain to managed. I have 90% of my money in just 3 funds; a US equity Index, an International equity index (ex-US) and a US bond index. Average annual return over 30 years is 8.6% with minimal maintenance. My advice would be to keep your percentage allocations in double digits and don't have more than 5 or 6 funds in your portfolio. You won't go grey quite as quickly.

Thrugelmir

bostonerimus wrote: »

I have 90% of my money in just 3 funds; a US equity Index, an International equity index (ex-US) and a US bond index.

What's the % allocated to each of the 3 funds.

What's the geographical split of the International Equity fund?

As you are US based. A very different scenario to a UK investor in terms of fund allocation. 5 year annualised return for an investor tracking the S&P 500 in sterling is 16%. Our loss on this side of the pond is your gain.

itwasntme001

This blog post by demonitized is particularly relevant given the recent posts above.

https://demonetizedblog.com/2019/08/12/stocks-for-the-long-run/

In particular:

"Usually when people say “stocks for the long run” what they really mean is “US stocks for the long run.” And usually what they’ve done to arrive at this conclusion is extrapolate past returns from the US stock market since about 1926 or so.

We like to pretend this is a disciplined asset allocation process when really it’s just a massive directional bet on the US equity market. A massive directional bet based on a relatively limited historical data sample.

When we do this with fund managers and stocks it’s performance chasing.
When we do it with asset classes and countries it’s asset allocation.
Classic."

bostonerimus

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What's the % allocated to each of the 3 funds.

What's the geographical split of the International Equity fund?

As you are US based. A very different scenario to a UK investor in terms of fund allocation. 5 year annualised return for an investor tracking the S&P 500 in sterling is 16%. Our loss on this side of the pond is your gain.

roughly 50/25/25. International is here

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vtiax