The advantages of using fossil fuels

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

And yet another .... untrue post from Ken.

Which bit was untrue?

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Of the charts good news as you say.

Hope I haven't misled you/anyone on TSLA. They dropped 10% in one day this week, which is a disaster, but over the next few days put most of it back on. That's not normal and makes no sense. In the medium term say 2023+ (short term even), some analysts suggest a doubling of the price if the robo-taxis do absolutely nothing, and perhaps 20x if they are a success. No sane person should invest in these.

Tesla are a long term hold for me so I'm totally laid back about daily fluctuations.

The biggest factor on the price (in pounds) will probably turn out to be the FX rate in the short term.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

My belief is not extreme, I think. We have all the tools today, and as a growing number of studies conclude, they are economical today, so we'd be better off changing leccy generation, transport, heating etc and have more jobs.

But, on to your second point, yes, I think we won't do enough, fast enough, but I really don't want to be a downer on folk here. Hence why I chat about what works, how it works economically, and why it seems fun and exciting.

Yes, again, I can't face the prospect that AGW targets will be missed by a large margin, as that would be terrifying. The 1.5/2C+ target is still bad, we will see ever worse storms, flooding and areas of already hot countries where crops and people will no longer be able to live permanently.

So ...... continued in the next post ......

Crikey....there's absolutely nothing in this post that I disagree with!:cool:

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

Our house isn’t on fire yet but we can see the fire coming so if our neighbours aren’t going to help stop it reaching us then we need to take action to minimise the fire when it does get here.

If we only account for 1%of current GHG production how can we stop AGW on our own? I am not saying we shouldn’t do our bit particularly as you point out RE will save us money but we may as well be prepared.

As an example let’s roll out more ASHPs (aircon units) so people (the elderly in particular) can keep cool in a heatwave. This could save ‘000s of lives. (This could be linked to solar panel installations thus reducing CO2 emissions as well when they are used for heating.) Old people’s homes and hospitals would be an obvious place to target.

The cold is more dangerous than heat hence why deaths go up in the winter

What's more dangerous, global warming over decades centuries or the desire for some like Mart to increase VAT on natural gas?

What's more dangerous, that maybe rice maybe might maybe get less nutritious, or trying to switch UK diets which currently is about 98% meat eaters to 98% vegetarian/vegan?

What's more dangerous, a coal power station a hundred miles away in Yorkshire, or poverty?
Poor people die sooner and have more health problems. Closing down the coal plants will marginally increase electricity prices which will marginally push some people into poverty


The desire to stop using fossil fuels is framed always as a positive for health and wellbeing
The reality is that increasing the cost of fossil fuels, changing our diets, making us marginally poorer, those things will cost not only cost money but also wellbeing and health.

Even things as innocent as cycling rather than driving
Saves money saves fuel
But you pay for it in increased likelihood of being killed or disabled or hurt (40-120x more likely) which is why I don't cycle anymore (had two near death accidents and near misses) and wouldn't advise anyone else to do so


So what is the solution
If fossil fuels are good in the short term but bad in the long term
Well you change over slowly so you don't screw yourself in the short term
Even Germany which is the poster child of green. I'd argue they started in 1995 just to put a date on it and they hope to be 65% non fossil in their grid by 2030 so 35 years to only go to two thirds non-fossil in their grid and still majority fossil for heating transport and industry.

Mart may have fantasies of a rapid transition but it ain't Gona happen
The only way for a rapid transition to happen is if wind or PV becomes cheaper than marginal generation. For that wind/solar would have to be closer to £20/MWh and then only until storage becomes a problem. Then wind + storage would need to be around £40/MWh. We are not yet close

So it's going to be a slow and steady 2-3% off per year. Fossil fuels are not the danger it's trying to stop using them more rapidly than is reasonable that is the danger

Also there is too much concentration on the grid
Need to do more for efficiency & upgrading buildings

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

and as a growing number of studies conclude, they are economical today.

Why do you need a 'study' to conclude something is economical?

Do you need a study to confirm your TV is economical or your phone or your shoes or your weekly food shop?

Anything that needs a study to prove it is economically seems to me to suggest it almost certainly isn't economical

You have to laugh at the green cheerleaders
With ten breaths they Jump for joy that wind and PV is now economically
Okay when the state takes the subsidy sway then they Jump up and down crying what the hell are you doing this stuff need support!!

GreatApe

Partial ways to improve the problem.

Grid is solved just stick to current plan (65% non fossil in 2022 some 8 years earlier than Germany) and clear pathway to 85%+ by 2030

Beef/lamb tax £5/kg (will reduce cow consumption form About 2 million cows per year to aboout 1 million cows per year). This would be difficult but doable. Will bring in lots of tax perhaps £3 billion a year. And in theory should save citizens money and be better for health. Perhaps go further and on top of this also add VAT to all meat.

Massive and rapid redevelopment of council estates especially in London
Knock them down rebuild at 3x the density better quality better insulated flats
This helps solve housing problem and gets rid of often very crap social flats with new better ones
Where the quality is okay upgrade them

Deploy a large e-scooter fleet perhaps 500,000 units (but in phases of perhaps 50,000) in London. Only cost £250 each in bulk and they are 60 miles per KWh which is 15x more efficient than an EV more efficient than even bus and tube. Make some back roads car free for safer option for these and cycling. If successful deploy elsewhere like Birmingham Manchester and perhaps everywhere

Build more Interconnectors especially to Norway and France
Investigate the potential for links to Canada/USA too

Deploy social 'wind heaters' to pensioners homes starting with the council stock
These are heaters that go on for free when there is excess wind which would be otherwise curtailed
Can deploy said heaters starting near where the wind farms links make landfall
Saves pensioners a few quid and saves some gas. Perhaps deploy 1 million should cost no more than about £30 million. These 1 million wind heaters would allow upto 2.5GW of wind not to be curtailed. Can deploy another million if necessary and another million...

Move the boiler ban for new builds from 2025 to 2021

Have an off peak London bus rate. Currently it's £1.50 flat rate anytime. Reduce this to £1 for off peak bus transport. Should increase overall numbers but decrease peaks useage a little

London buses to be electrified
They don't need huge range perhaps 80 miles is more than fine since they can rapid charge at the large bus stations or during the drivers breaks or downtimes. This may be a cost benefit since electricity is cheaper than diesels and buses use case is better for batteries. Slow speeds not long distances many stops and starts.

Convince the internet companies like BT and virgin media to share WiFi hubs
Seems pointless to have effectively 30 million WiFi hubs for 30 million customers when they can be perhaps closer to 5 million WiFi hubs and software. This alone could save over 2TWH a year in electricity. Also for instance instead of me getting a new Virgin media WiFi for my home and they sent out an engineer they could have just emailed me a username and password so I could connect to one of the dozen other virgin media boxes nearby. Still charge me the monthly fee but no need to send an engineer and send a new box just let me connect to one of the neighbors boxes.

Run a few adds explaining LEDs are very effective and pay back rapidly. Lots of less efficient lights still around.

JKenH

GreatApe wrote: »

The cold is more dangerous than heat hence why deaths go up in the winter

That may be the case but Mart was asking me to put some meat on the bones of the mitigation argument and this was just an example of what we can do to prepare for the increased temperatures we might expect from AGW.

Anyway ASHPs are a convenient and cheap way of warming an individual room for those who might not be able to afford, or do not feel it necessary, to heat the whole house, particularly if you don’t have access to natural gas. Couple that with the cooling function in hot weather and they are great for us older folks.

JKenH

GreatApe wrote: »

Partial ways to improve the problem.

Grid is solved just stick to current plan (65% non fossil in 2022 some 8 years earlier than Germany) and clear pathway to 85%+ by 2030

Beef/lamb tax £5/kg (will reduce cow consumption form About 2 million cows per year to aboout 1 million cows per year). This would be difficult but doable. Will bring in lots of tax perhaps £3 billion a year. And in theory should save citizens money and be better for health. Perhaps go further and on top of this also add VAT to all meat.

Massive and rapid redevelopment of council estates especially in London
Knock them down rebuild at 3x the density better quality better insulated flats
This helps solve housing problem and gets rid of often very crap social flats with new better ones
Where the quality is okay upgrade them

Deploy a large e-scooter fleet perhaps 500,000 units (but in phases of perhaps 50,000) in London. Only cost £250 each in bulk and they are 60 miles per KWh which is 15x more efficient than an EV more efficient than even bus and tube. Make some back roads car free for safer option for these and cycling. If successful deploy elsewhere like Birmingham Manchester and perhaps everywhere

Build more Interconnectors especially to Norway and France
Investigate the potential for links to Canada/USA too

Deploy social 'wind heaters' to pensioners homes starting with the council stock
These are heaters that go on for free when there is excess wind which would be otherwise curtailed
Can deploy said heaters starting near where the wind farms links make landfall
Saves pensioners a few quid and saves some gas. Perhaps deploy 1 million should cost no more than about £30 million. These 1 million wind heaters would allow upto 2.5GW of wind not to be curtailed. Can deploy another million if necessary and another million...

Move the boiler ban for new builds from 2025 to 2021

Have an off peak London bus rate. Currently it's £1.50 flat rate anytime. Reduce this to £1 for off peak bus transport. Should increase overall numbers but decrease peaks useage a little

London buses to be electrified
They don't need huge range perhaps 80 miles is more than fine since they can rapid charge at the large bus stations or during the drivers breaks or downtimes. This may be a cost benefit since electricity is cheaper than diesels and buses use case is better for batteries. Slow speeds not long distances many stops and starts.

Convince the internet companies like BT and virgin media to share WiFi hubs
Seems pointless to have effectively 30 million WiFi hubs for 30 million customers when they can be perhaps closer to 5 million WiFi hubs and software. This alone could save over 2TWH a year in electricity. Also for instance instead of me getting a new Virgin media WiFi for my home and they sent out an engineer they could have just emailed me a username and password so I could connect to one of the dozen other virgin media boxes nearby. Still charge me the monthly fee but no need to send an engineer and send a new box just let me connect to one of the neighbors boxes.

Run a few adds explaining LEDs are very effective and pay back rapidly. Lots of less efficient lights still around.

There are 4 suggestions in there to improve the life of Londoners. I’m not sure why you feel investment and subsidies should be aimed solely at Londoners. Many of us who live in the sticks already have to put up with a higher cost of heating as a result of not having access to the gas network.

mmmmikey

GreatApe wrote: »

What's more dangerous, a coal power station a hundred miles away in Yorkshire, or poverty?

Today's great pearl of wisdom - this one made me laugh out loud


Great Ape - not sure if you've ever ventured north of Watford, but for your information Yorkshire is in fact inhabited. I'm lead to understand that it's quite an advanced civilisation, with many of the inhabitants able to read and write and sharing the same environmental concerns as Londoners.......

ABrass

Don't worry Ken, feel free to clutch your pearls about some asterisks. I believe swearing allows you a greater range of options on how to express your views of things and used in moderation is fine. Just as you believe that it's worth trying to find brass in the muck that is GreatApes trolling.