Irish hard border question

MaxiRobriguez

lvader wrote: »

Better call for a general election then.

I have no doubt one will happen before the end of the year is out.

If the PM is content to prorogue parliament and ignore royal ascent in order to get his way then it's not beyond the realms of imagination to think he would set an election date, if one was voted for now, after the 31st October in order to allow a no-deal Brexit to go through unchallenged.

If the opposition parties together don't want a no-deal Brexit specifically, and they have the numbers, it's right that they temporarily vote down the Government in order to secure legally binding measures that prevents that before parliament is ceased for a GE campaign.

There's nothing really complicated to understand about this, and equally it's not difficult to see a no confidence vote being tabled in early November when the delay bill is enacted.

Whether or not that plays into the hands of Johnson or the opposition parties in terms of public opinion is another thing entirely. I have no idea if people will go down the "Boris didn't deliver on 31st, time to vote Nigel" or "Boris was scuppered by Labour, so I'll vote Boris" - could go either way.

lvader

Surely our nice friends in the EU would simply allow us back in no questions asked in the event of a remain Government taking over after the 31st of October.

MaxiRobriguez

lvader wrote: »

Surely our nice friends in the EU would simply allow us back in no questions asked in the event of a remain Government taking over after the 31st of October.

But no party is campaigning to revoke article 50 outright.

People need to be careful with the asserting the opposition are preventing Brexit. If any opposition party secure a majority then a second referendum is likely. If Boris wins a majority, there's nothing stopping him enacting a no-deal Brexit in January should he wish. Both outcomes still keep Brexit as an outcome.

The opposition proposition to delay the bill is designed to allow a general election campaign to happen without the backdrop of a no-deal occurring at which point focus would perhaps need to shift to the 10,000 or so lorries starting to build up on Kent roads, for example.

lisyloo

lvader wrote: »

Surely our nice friends in the EU would simply allow us back in no questions asked in the event of a remain Government taking over after the 31st of October.

Not on the same special terms we have now - no.
I think people on both side acknowledge this.

lvader

lisyloo wrote: »

Not on the same special terms we have now - no.
I think people on both side acknowledge this.

Really?, that doesn't seem very friendly. Anyway the GE would be before Oct 31st. If you don't trust him about the date, why would you trust him to call for the delay? It seems to me he will run the date down and other a GE can stop that.

MaxiRobriguez

lvader wrote: »

Really?, that doesn't seem very friendly. Anyway the GE would be before Oct 31st. If you don't trust him about the date, why would you trust him to call for the delay? It seems to me he will run the date down and other a GE can stop that.

Because the delay bill would be passed by both houses, and ignoring it creates not only a constitutional crisis the likes of which this country has never seen, turning us from a working democracy into a tinpot dictatorship, it also means when his premiership inevitably falls that whoever replaces him has a blueprint to work from.

"We're going to renationalise every privatisation in the last twenty years without compensation"
"We don't like that and we have enough in parliament to vote against that."
"Crack on, I'll just ignore that."

Careful what you wish for and all that...

lvader

The legal recourse is a GE, if they don't call for one by definition they have confidence in what the Government is doing.

Herzlos

phillw wrote: »

I think they are going to have covert surveillance watching for lorries and they will then be investigated and intercepted if they don't head to the designated areas.

If you want to smuggle then you need to use less conspicuous methods.

Which is why you wouldn't use a lorry. A transit van or a people carrier can still take a lot of illegal goods/people across the border. Once it's changed hands over the border you've got no way to prove it was even imported.


People cross the border several times a day to get on with their lives, so it'd be impossible to police.


With any kind of tax/regulatory divergence, there will be some benefit to grey market goods.

TV is £200 cheaper in Eire than NI? Get it from there.
Sub-standard illegal chicken can be sourced cheaper from NI? Get it from there.



There's also the VAT refunding on export thing, you could declare an item as leaving Eire thus reclaim/avoid VAT, but not declare it on arrival to the UK, thus saving you 20% immediately. Any online shopping system doing this would destroy any NI retail stores.

MaxiRobriguez

lvader wrote: »

The legal recourse is a GE, if they don't call for one by definition they have confidence in what the Government is doing.

That's not how it works I'm afraid. Parliament votes on items.

Herzlos

Reaper wrote: »

It's such a blinding obvious thing to do and nobody seems to be mentioning it so I feel I must have missed something but can't see what. Is wide scale smuggling to be permitted, almost encouraged?

It's being ignored because it suits the argument that we can leave on WTO and just leave the border open. We can't.