Housing market after Brexit

jimbog

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.todaysconveyancer.co.uk/main-news/uk-property-transactions-fall-third/

From your link:

house prices remain reasonably resilient

Crashy_Time

jimbog wrote: »

From your link:

house prices remain reasonably resilient

Yes, the link is about transactions plummeting.

Locornwall

There is only one way this can get sorted out and that’s a general election. Whoever gets in, I’d expect eventual pay rises, but interest rate rises to match. Why not look for a bargain. Someone keen to sell and enjoy your life rather than playing roulette with politics.

Crashy_Time

Can`t see the Tories wanting an early GE, easier just to go for "No Deal" (absolute nonsense term) get Farage safely out of the way and then see if JC has anything left to take them on with (the longer this drags on the weaker he looks as well)

AdrianC

An early GE is not going to be the Tories' choice.

Minority government - rebels = Lost no confidence vote = GE

(And "No Deal" is absolutely not a nonsense term - it's exactly what we're currently heading for. No deal at all with the EU, so no trade deals with anybody except for a handful of nowheres...)

sal_III

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Can`t see the Tories wanting an early GE, easier just to go for "No Deal" (absolute nonsense term) get Farage safely out of the way and then see if JC has anything left to take them on with (the longer this drags on the weaker he looks as well)

Tories don't have majority in Parliament... even without the anti-nodeal/pro-remain rebels. The problem is that Labour are so far down the polls that they don't dare call for GE now.

no-deal Brexit might get Farage out of the way, but the Tories are doomed come next GE, as more than 2/3 of the population is against no-deal Brexit, especially after the reality of it hits. Their only hope is "May's" deal.

Crashy_Time

AdrianC wrote: »

An early GE is not going to be the Tories' choice.

Minority government - rebels = Lost no confidence vote = GE

(And "No Deal" is absolutely not a nonsense term - it's exactly what we're currently heading for. No deal at all with the EU, so no trade deals with anybody except for a handful of nowheres...)

How long do you think the "No Deal" scenario will persist after we leave, do you think the EU will just stop trading with us? Do you think there will be a vote of No Confidence before the end of October? (Hunt is saying if no meaningful deal by end of September we are then on a No Deal trajectory from that date and discussions will be stopped with the EU until after we leave) The people who want to stop Brexit have no reason to lose their own seat after Brexit surely, unless they are super principled, so why force a GE after the event?

AdrianC

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How long do you think the "No Deal" scenario will persist after we leave

Until the grown-ups start talking to each other.

do you think the EU will just stop trading with us?

Not "stop trading" - but they will certainly make different buying choices. They will have no choice unless we start being realistic, because there will be no trade deal, so trade will be on WTO default terms. That will make UK-EU27 trade much more expensive. Remember, the EU27 can continue to trade among themselves quite happily, and a no-deal brexit won't affect EU27 trade with non-EU countries one bit.

On the other hand, it will affect EVERYTHING that the UK imports or exports from EVERYWHERE that the EU has trade deals with currently, bar those very few minor countries that have already agreed to roll-over the deals.

Do you think there will be a vote of No Confidence before the end of October?

If Boris wins? Absolutely.

sal_III

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How long do you think the "No Deal" scenario will persist after we leave, do you think the EU will just stop trading with us? Do you think there will be a vote of No Confidence before the end of October? (Hunt is saying if no meaningful deal by end of September we are then on a No Deal trajectory from that date and discussions will be stopped with the EU until after we leave) The people who want to stop Brexit have no reason to lose their own seat after Brexit surely, unless they are super principled, so why force a GE after the event?

People keep making the mistake of only considering the trade aspect of "no-deal", in fact this is the easiest to quantify aspect - we got to WTO rules/tariffs which are well known in advance.

EU-27 will keep trading with the UK after the tariffs are in place, the same way China, Mexico and Canada keep trading with the USA after the recently imposed tariffs.

The "underbelly" of "no-deal" is around all the regulations, standards and legislation that will stop having effect immediately, while there are no UK equivalents in place. It will take the Government months if not years to fully transcribe all of these into equivalent UK legislation even if they go for copy/paste. Meanwhile it will be chaos.

Crashy_Time

AdrianC wrote: »

Until the grown-ups start talking to each other.


Not "stop trading" - but they will certainly make different buying choices. They will have no choice unless we start being realistic, because there will be no trade deal, so trade will be on WTO default terms. That will make UK-EU27 trade much more expensive. Remember, the EU27 can continue to trade among themselves quite happily, and a no-deal brexit won't affect EU27 trade with non-EU countries one bit.

On the other hand, it will affect EVERYTHING that the UK imports or exports from EVERYWHERE that the EU has trade deals with currently, bar those very few minor countries that have already agreed to roll-over the deals.


If Boris wins? Absolutely.

So many or most of the EU 27 just won`t be fussed about not trading with the fifth largest economy in the world in your opinion? Excuse me if I don`t take your views entirely seriously.