It's time to start digging up those Squirrelled Nuts!!!!

zagfles

Sea_Shell said:

I said fall further, I didn't say they were low, but they are off their recent highs, so subdued...a bit?!

As for a "finger in the air" strategy...the alternative is to plough on regardless of what the world's doing around you, based on some other (possibly flawed) strategy.

But hey, I might run out of money when I'm 144 😉

I'm not saying our way is perfect.😇  Far from it.  This thread could end up being a perfect example of what NOT to do!

Stay tooned! 😎

I certainly will!

The trouble with making decisions based on "what the world's doing around you" is everyone else knows as well so it's already reflected in the market price, so you either need to know something everyone else in the market doesn't, or be better at predicting the future than them. The few who can do this consistently will be billionaires. Everyone else will win some and lose others, but probably be down overall because on average they're not invested as efficiently as they would otherwise have been.

But having said that I'm sure you'll be fine regardless, you have the scope to have a bit of fun on the way. Those with higher spending habits or smaller pots might not be able to afford to.

Anyway we've had a few interesting discussions on drawdown strategies here in other threads, so maybe leave it at that. But I'm definitely staying tuned

sheslookinhot

Dizee123 said:

I received my first drawdown payment from standard life of £1048 last week.  I will be drawing down this amount from a pot of around £30K until July 23 when my main DB pension kicks in.  I dithered over whether to take the whole amount up to the tax allowance or to take a monthly figure.  The thought of trying to reclaim the tax, and the delays others have mentioned, swung it to the monthly amount.  I can move to spending easy access cash savings if there are any large drops in value. 

Now just need to liberate my £6k in Legal and General as a small pot and all will be going according to plan for a monthly income of around £1,500 (topped up with a little savings money).  As I lived on £1,250 (tax free sum) for the last 8 months, this will feel like riches!  However, this months extra money is already earmarked for new glasses....
 

This is a similar situation as myself. I have finished work, but will get my last monthly salary end April. I will ask H&L for the tax free lump sum from my small £44k pot and then a monthly drawdown up to my personal tax allowance. Any thing extra  I need will come from some cash savings. I will defer my DB pension until end April 23.

Dizee123

I wish you the best of luck in retirement sheslookinhot. 

I have not regretted my decision to date, and if the worst comes to the worst I can always take my DB pension early and accept the actuarial reduction.  It shouldn't come to that, as similar to Sea_Shell we are quite frugal by nature

That is probably why I love this thread!

cfw1994

zagfles said:

Surprised people seem to think equities are low at the moment, I'm surprised how high they are considering all that's going on in the world. Typical world index tracker up about 7% over the last year, up about 30-40% over 3 years and about 50-60% over 5 years.

Also I think people need to be wary of trying to time the market using "finger in the air" decisions as to whether to spend from cash or equities, it's not something people typically do during accumulation so why do it during decumulation?

When you're in accumulation, you have a lot of 'flex' in your finances......if things crash, you can invest more ("buy the dip").

When you're in decummulation, once your money is gone: it's gone!   
There is also the SORR (sequencing of returns risk) - I'm sure you are aware of that, but when equities go pear shaped early on in decummulation, it can have a BadEffect™ on how the future goes for you.  Mostly irrelevant during accumulation.

My view is that equities are low right now.....yes, the world is upside down; they could indeed fall lower, and it could take months or even a year or more for things to even out and "come back"....& for that reason, I paused my drawdown on my DC pot to instead use cash funds (PBs, Cash ISAs).   

Of course, none of us have crystal balls on any of this, so my guesswork is as likely as yours!!

SouthCoastBoy

cfw1994 said:

zagfles said:

Surprised people seem to think equities are low at the moment, I'm surprised how high they are considering all that's going on in the world. Typical world index tracker up about 7% over the last year, up about 30-40% over 3 years and about 50-60% over 5 years.

Also I think people need to be wary of trying to time the market using "finger in the air" decisions as to whether to spend from cash or equities, it's not something people typically do during accumulation so why do it during decumulation?

When you're in accumulation, you have a lot of 'flex' in your finances......if things crash, you can invest more ("buy the dip").

When you're in decummulation, once your money is gone: it's gone!   
There is also the SORR (sequencing of returns risk) - I'm sure you are aware of that, but when equities go pear shaped early on in decummulation, it can have a BadEffect™ on how the future goes for you.  Mostly irrelevant during accumulation.

My view is that equities are low right now.....yes, the world is upside down; they could indeed fall lower, and it could take months or even a year or more for things to even out and "come back"....& for that reason, I paused my drawdown on my DC pot to instead use cash funds (PBs, Cash ISAs).   

Of course, none of us have crystal balls on any of this, so my guesswork is as likely as yours!!

Interesting, my perception is equities are relatively high at the moment, for example the s&p 500 is about 30% above its Feb 2020 value

Sea_Shell

Can I briefly de-rail my own thread for a few posts.   I need HELP with an earworm, that’s been going around my head for months!!

Is anyone able to guess this piece of music from my description, as it’s driving me mad and Google is of limited help…I need the hive mind of my Squirrel friends (and most of you are around the right age too).

It’s an instrumental, from the 1970’s (I think).   It starts with just strings, then on the second “verse” soft pad drums and chord synths come in.  It starts with 3 long spaced out notes, and if you count 1-6 quickly with an emphasis on the number 4, that’s the sort of tempo it’s at.

I can't annotate music here but I think the opening notes are (might not be the right key)

E E E (highest note)  DCD    C A  BCCF (low F) BABE (low e) AGAD (low D)

 

It may have been used in an Ad, or on TV somewhere.

In my mind’s eye, I see seabirds soaring over a sailing boat at sunset?!?

 

What do I know it isn’t: (TF = Theme from)

Albatross

TF The Onedin  Line

TF The Deer Hunter

TF Howard’s Way

Eye Level

Hamlet Ad

Milk Tray Ad

 

I also don’t think it’s by:

Vangelis

Jean Michael Jarre

Mike Oldfield

  

So please, any help with this would be appreciated.   I’m not about much today, but please post up your ideas, and I’ll go through them all later.   Let’s hope we find a winner, so I can get some inner peace (and some sleep)!

 

***  If you can post any ideas below, but then once I’ve given you a yay or nay, can you delete your post, so as to not clog up the thread, long term.  I’ll then update the above list with all the incorrect guesses, or crown the winner ***

flipper_72

Might not be old enough but is it something by the beloved? The sun rising was used in an ad but I can’t remember what for.

Scott_Chegg_

is it something by Ennio Morricone ?

Bravepants

Sea_Shell said:

Can I briefly de-rail my own thread for a few posts.   I need HELP with an earworm, that’s been going around my head for months!!

Is anyone able to guess this piece of music from my description, as it’s driving me mad and Google is of limited help…I need the hive mind of my Squirrel friends (and most of you are around the right age too).

It’s an instrumental, from the 1970’s (I think).   It starts with just strings, then on the second “verse” soft pad drums and chord synths come in.  It starts with 3 long spaced out notes, and if you count 1-6 quickly with an emphasis on the number 4, that’s the sort of tempo it’s at.

I can't annotate music here but I think the opening notes are (might not be the right key)

E E E (highest note)  DCD    C A  BCCF (low F) BABE (low e) AGAD (low D)

 

It may have been used in an Ad, or on TV somewhere.

In my mind’s eye, I see seabirds soaring over a sailing boat at sunset?!?

 

What do I know it isn’t: (TF = Theme from)

Albatross

TF The Onedin  Line

TF The Deer Hunter

TF Howard’s Way

Eye Level

Hamlet Ad

Milk Tray Ad

 

I also don’t think it’s by:

Vangelis

Jean Michael Jarre

Mike Oldfield

  

So please, any help with this would be appreciated.   I’m not about much today, but please post up your ideas, and I’ll go through them all later.   Let’s hope we find a winner, so I can get some inner peace (and some sleep)!

 

***  If you can post any ideas below, but then once I’ve given you a yay or nay, can you delete your post, so as to not clog up the thread, long term.  I’ll then update the above list with all the incorrect guesses, or crown the winner ***

Could it be "Chi Mai" by Ennio Morricone, from "The Life and times of Lloyd George"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbHP9NtSnB0

zagfles

cfw1994 said:

zagfles said:

Surprised people seem to think equities are low at the moment, I'm surprised how high they are considering all that's going on in the world. Typical world index tracker up about 7% over the last year, up about 30-40% over 3 years and about 50-60% over 5 years.

Also I think people need to be wary of trying to time the market using "finger in the air" decisions as to whether to spend from cash or equities, it's not something people typically do during accumulation so why do it during decumulation?

When you're in accumulation, you have a lot of 'flex' in your finances......if things crash, you can invest more ("buy the dip").

When you're in decummulation, once your money is gone: it's gone!   
There is also the SORR (sequencing of returns risk) - I'm sure you are aware of that, but when equities go pear shaped early on in decummulation, it can have a BadEffect™ on how the future goes for you.  Mostly irrelevant during accumulation.

My view is that equities are low right now.....yes, the world is upside down; they could indeed fall lower, and it could take months or even a year or more for things to even out and "come back"....& for that reason, I paused my drawdown on my DC pot to instead use cash funds (PBs, Cash ISAs).   

Of course, none of us have crystal balls on any of this, so my guesswork is as likely as yours!!

There is a lot of misunderstanding about SORR, as if it's only a problem in decumulation. There is a point about avoiding the mistake of looking at average returns, because your retirement pot will vary in size, it will build up during accumulation and reach a peak at retirement and then decline as you spend it. Bad returns obviously have a bigger negative effect on a bigger pot, and so bad returns are worse when the pot is at its peak, but this applies both to the late accumulation phase and early decumulation phase. If the pot plummets a year before retirement that's just as bad as if it plummets a year after.

If you're trying to "buy dips" and presumably "sell peaks" then you're market timing, if you can do that successfully send me a postcard from your private island once you've moored your luxury yacht

Personally I think the market is high when you take a long term view (ie longer than the last few months), and if you look at CAPE ratios (not that I think they're a great predictor). But I don't let my opinion on short term market direction affect my investment strategy, because I'm not arrogant enough to think I know better than the overall market opinion which sets prices.

Of course as I said earlier you may want to have a bit of fun if you have the flexibility in your retirement plans to gamble on market direction, but think of it as similar to having a flutter on the horses. Some people will claim to have a "dead cert" for the 3:30 at Kempton Park, some people will claim to be able to identify market peaks and troughs, but in reality very few can do it consistently enough to gain financially from it over the long term. They'll win some and lose others but usually be down overall.