Sirius minerals - why all the interest?

20SmthngSver

They've between 10p-15p for months and months, even a few years. HL doesn't display any pay out history for them.

Old_Lifer

The mine has been years in the planning and is now actually happening. It is a enormous project. The share is widely traded, has lots of small shareholders and a very narrow spread.



The mine is not due to open until 2021 and it will probably be several years after that before full production is reached, so it is a long term investment.


A funding package has recently been announced, which with resulting dilution and a coming bond issue has depressed the share price.

bowlhead99

20SmthngSver wrote: »

They've between 10p-15p for months and months, even a few years. HL doesn't display any pay out history for them.

Not really true that they've been between 10-15p for months and months. The recent drop to the 15p range was in May when they announced the 15p placing. For the previous two years (up until end of this April) they were in the 20-30p range and sometimes higher. You'd have to go back three years to find them below about 17-18p.

I first invested at 6p, before they had the planning approval. Looking at my transaction history in my SIPP, I added some at 15p in September 2012, and I added some at 15p in the recent placing, which is pretty much the same as today's price, so in that sense it has been 15p for a few years with no dividend in between. However, it has not been aimlessly drifting along at that price. I sold some in August 2016 at 49p and some more the following month at 38p as my holding had ballooned in value.

Sentiment and price has moved around a lot as they met or didn't meet various milestones and timing targets such as proving the product was attractive, getting plans and permissions approved, lining up customers, raising capital and putting together financing for the various stages. I have as much as I want at the moment (20k+ shares, £3-4k) and am under no illusions - all kinds of problems could cause it to go titsup.

cloud_dog

I'm by no means an expert in SXX, (have bought/sold, no longer holding) but, they have had a bit of the 'Golden Egg' story about them for a little while now, and if they can bring it all home without too many delays and too much debt/dilution then they could very well be a nice little cash cow.

If you can take the long term view then they should be an excellent dividend payer (that is the hope).

Accepting all the usual single share investment caveats (and SXX are not proven yet, not by a long way), and if you accept that food production will only need to get ever more efficient (yield per acre) due to the rising population then I can see great value in this stock, if they can pull it off.

Latest presentation for anyone interested.

dividendhero

Has Neil Woodford bought into it?

Username999

Anglo American confirmed it is in advanced discussions with Sirius Minerals in relation to a possible offer, it said on Wednesday, at a value of 5.5p per Sirius share, in cash.
The FTSE 100 mining giant said the proposal would value the entire issued share capital of Sirius at about £386m.

Sum cheer for all the Sirius share holders?

itwasntme001

Username999 wrote: »

Sum cheer for all the Sirius share holders?

This is a sarcastic comment right?


A 5.5p per share offer, if it goes through, is just locking in a huge loss for the shareholders who bought before the 80% crash in the stock over the last year. Presumably most investors would lock in a significant loss. Only the gamblers who bought over the last few months would be smiling and if they are smart enough they should lock in the gains today.


It is unlikely the shareholders will vote to agree on this offer given what i said above. So i expect the stock to fall back to 3p. Unless there is some sort of bidding war that starts, which i think is highly unlikely.

sevenhills

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Only the gamblers who bought over the last few months would be smiling and if they are smart enough they should lock in the gains today.

It is unlikely the shareholders will vote to agree on this offer given what i said above. So I expect the stock to fall back to 3p. Unless there is some sort of bidding war that starts, which i think is highly unlikely.

I bought recently and its very nice to take a 40%+ profit, its holding out at 5.5 so far.

itwasntme001

sevenhills wrote: »

I bought recently and its very nice to take a 40%+ profit, its holding out at 5.5 so far.

Well done. Unless you had some "cough cough" insider knowledge "cough cough", you got lucky.

bowlhead99

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Well done. Unless you had some "cough cough" insider knowledge "cough cough", you got lucky.

There's polyhalite in them thar sevenhills!