No more boom and bust?

AG47

chucknorris wrote: »

Crashy sold his house in the late 90's, so he would probably be now approaching that mortgage free point if he had not sold.

Maybe but it's easy to look back in hindsight.

The point is there are booms and busts and anybody who denies the busts in property are clearly wrong.

Al the perma prop bulls denying the next downturn in houses are going to be left with their feet in their mouths.

Yes it would be amazing to by at the bottom of a bust and sell at the top of a boom, but this is extremely unlikely, nobody really manages this, if they did it was a fluke.

The issue here is there will be another bust in house prices, it could be soon or not so soon, but there will be another bust.

All the perma prop Bulls keep parading their nonsense, this is as certain as the next bust in property is as certain as death and taxes.

malkie76

If you’d bought in early 2008 and were forced to sell in early 2009 chances are you’d have lost money. If you were planning on buying in early 2008 and held out to early 2009 you’d have probably have saved money, have a smaller mortgage or been able to buy a better house for the same money.

Fantastic for a tiny minority of house owners, but irrelevant for the vast majority of people who hold mortgages for 20years.

Look at prices across any 20year period - do they always go up, stay the same, or go down ?

I don’t get the crash monkeys in the slightest.

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

Maybe but it's easy to look back in hindsight.

The point is there are booms and busts and anybody who denies the busts in property are clearly wrong.

Al the perma prop bulls denying the next downturn in houses are going to be left with their feet in their mouths.

Yes it would be amazing to by at the bottom of a bust and sell at the top of a boom, but this is extremely unlikely, nobody really manages this, if they did it was a fluke.

The issue here is there will be another bust in house prices, it could be soon or not so soon, but there will be another bust.

All the perma prop Bulls keep parading their nonsense, this is as certain as the next bust in property is as certain as death and taxes.

The main thing is to buy at the right time, if you do that, you do not need to sell at the top (if you do it is a nice bonus, but not necessary). That is as an investor, as an owner occupier, if you like the house and can afford it, there is seldom a wrong time (in terms of regretting it 10 years later).

Not really a fluke to buy near the bottom, but you need to accept risk, something bears like you are too afraid to take on board. I recognised the bottom (or near to it) of the late 80's bust, and it was the main reason that I relocated from to Newcastle to London and invested everything that I had into London property.

Will you ever answer the question that I keep asking you, who specifically are the 'perma bulls'?

ukcarper

AG47 wrote: »

Maybe but it's easy to look back in hindsight.

The point is there are booms and busts and anybody who denies the busts in property are clearly wrong.

Al the perma prop bulls denying the next downturn in houses are going to be left with their feet in their mouths.

Yes it would be amazing to by at the bottom of a bust and sell at the top of a boom, but this is extremely unlikely, nobody really manages this, if they did it was a fluke.

The issue here is there will be another bust in house prices, it could be soon or not so soon, but there will be another bust.

All the perma prop Bulls keep parading their nonsense, this is as certain as the next bust in property is as certain as death and taxes.

That's why if you are buying a home it's a mistake to try and time market because its unpredictable and in the long term it pays to own your home.

By the way why don't you answer chucknorris's. question who are these perma prop bulls.

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

I’d encourage people to just get on with their lives.

People do on a daily basis. Not everyone has the same opportunity though. Money makes money. If you've none. Then you've little chance.

lisyloo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

People do on a daily basis. Not everyone has the same opportunity though. Money makes money. If you've none. Then you've little chance.

No one is saying people who can’t should buy houses.
That would be silly.

westernpromise

AG47 wrote: »

anybody who denies the busts in property are clearly wrong

Give an example. One will do fine.

chucknorris

westernpromise wrote: »

Give an example. One will do fine.

I sold a house in Dorking just over a month ago for £650k (I bought it in 2005 for £360k). I was hoping for £675k, but I was content with selling at only 3.7% under what I had hoped for, considering that the market has dampened.

phillw

chucknorris wrote: »

I sold a house in Dorking just over a month ago for £650k (I bought it in 2005 for £360k). I was hoping for £675k, but I was content with selling at only 3.7% under what I had hoped for, considering that the market has dampened.

When people talk about boom and bust they think (probably irrationally) that it's a zero sum game or worse, that the bust will wipe out any gains (or more) during the boom.

If someone had bought the house for £675k and then were trying to shift it a short time later for £650 then I'm sure they'd be a little miffed, but it would be a very rare case and not worth waiting until you could buy the house for £360k.

If the alternative is £20k a year on rent, then waiting isn't free. Although if you are planning on moving every few months, then paying a premium for that by short term renting is probably going to be more cost effective.

chucknorris

phillw wrote: »

When people talk about boom and bust they think (probably irrationally) that it's a zero sum game or worse, that the bust will wipe out any gains (or more) during the boom.

If someone had bought the house for £675k and then were trying to shift it a short time later for £650 then I'm sure they'd be a little miffed, but it would be a very rare case and not worth waiting until you could buy the house for £360k.

If the alternative is £20k a year on rent, then waiting isn't free. Although if you are planning on moving every few months, then paying a premium for that by short term renting is probably going to be more cost effective.

It wasn't one of my investment properties, it was our home, and we had bought another home for cash about 8 months earlier. As cash buyers in a sticky market with motivated sellers, we got a good deal at over 5% less than we were willing to pay.