Extend the uncertainty?

lisyloo

phillw wrote: »

There are enough legal and biological differences between babies and old people that I don't think we need to entertain that line of thought.

I think you’ll get a lot of people of all ages that are currently cared for by family for free (or low amour of carers allowance) wanting free “healthcare” if you define dressing/washing/feeding as “healthcare”.

Even if we remove the normal child rearing for the equation, personal care is not limited to the elderly.
There are people of all ages who are disabled or suffering illness.

I don’t think there is a appetite from the majority of tax payers to foot the bill for person care and it would be very difficult politically just to pander to a few who want to hoard their wealth.

There was a white paper a few years ago and it didn’t get implemented so change is very difficult and unpopular.

Do you really think the bulk of tax payers would like this? To help out a few relatively wealthy people?
I really don’t.

AG47

Interesting how the perma prop Bulls are spinning this extended uncertainty to be not too bad for property, when the truth is the longer the uncertainty is extended the longer the bear market and the lower the bottom will be

Arklight

lisyloo wrote: »

I think you’ll get a lot of people of all ages that are currently cared for by family for free (or low amour of carers allowance) wanting free “healthcare” if you define dressing/washing/feeding as “healthcare”.

Even if we remove the normal child rearing for the equation, personal care is not limited to the elderly.
There are people of all ages who are disabled or suffering illness.

I don’t think there is a appetite from the majority of tax payers to foot the bill for person care and it would be very difficult politically just to pander to a few who want to hoard their wealth.

There was a white paper a few years ago and it didn’t get implemented so change is very difficult and unpopular.

Do you really think the bulk of tax payers would like this? To help out a few relatively wealthy people?
I really don’t.

That's right. Plenty of people need care. Sadly they find themselves in the most uncaring version of Britain in my living memory.

AG47

mayonnaise wrote: »

Meanwhile, in the real world...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/15/uk-property-market-in-line-for-summer-brexit-relief-rally-rightmove-prices

Exactly what I’m saying

AG47

mayonnaise wrote: »

Maybe.

Fact is, a hard brexit is now 100% off the table.
Whether we end up with a customs union fudge, a single market 2.0 fudge or no brexit at all, I'm afraid it's not going to bring about the housing market collapse you've been pining for.
Oh well.

Perma prop bulls are wrong whatever way you look at it.

You can speak in absolutes as much as you want but the only thing certain right now is that the uncertainty has been extended

Malthusian

AG47 wrote: »

You can speak in absolutes as much as you want but the only thing certain right now is that the uncertainty has been extended

How long does the uncertainty need to be extended for without causing a massive house price crash before you admit that you were wrong and Brexit won't give you a free house? Twelve months? Two years?

You are aware that an unfalsifiable theory - a prediction that can never be proven wrong over any timeframe - is worthless, si?

phillw

Malthusian wrote: »

before you admit that you were wrong and Brexit won't give you a free house?

Society will have to completely collapse before you can get a free house & you'll have trouble preventing someone else taking your free house from you.

AG47

The house price crash, or bubble popping will be a long drawn out affair, this was always the plan

Not a big bubble pop, but a slow let the air out, this is why the uncertainty has been extended

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

Interesting how the perma prop Bulls are spinning this extended uncertainty to be not too bad for property, when the truth is the longer the uncertainty is extended the longer the bear market and the lower the bottom will be

Personally I think rising interest rates will be worse than brexit uncertainty as there’s the limit of affordability, although I don’t think we’ll see a crash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48119158

....Although I wouldn’t blame anyone who didn’t put much store by what Mark Carney says.

I think uncertainty is a quite personal.
Due to contracts/job situation I currently feel very secure.

When I sold my MILs home (she’s in care and FIL passed away) I felt no uncertainty. The buyer who was downsizing due to age wasn’t uncertain either.

I’m not sure brexit affects everyone in the same way.

malkie76

Malthusian wrote: »

How long does the uncertainty need to be extended for without causing a massive house price crash before you admit that you were wrong and Brexit won't give you a free house? Twelve months? Two years?

You are aware that an unfalsifiable theory - a prediction that can never be proven wrong over any timeframe - is worthless, si?

Indeed - “its only a matter of time” has been used since the 70s as evidence that house prices would massively drop irretrievably. It was going to be caused by the Falklands, or trade strikes, or unrest in NI, or the collapse of NATO, or the fall of the Iron Curtin, or joining the EEC, or not joining the EEC, or SARS, or HIV, or the Gulf War, or subprime loans, or credit crunch, or austerity, or Scottish independence, or Brexit, or no deal Brexit, or no Brexit at all.

What’s next? Mass unemployment? Inability to maintain public order, or run public services without immigration, or the rise of religious hatred, or full scale antibiotic resistance?

There will always be something new because there’s always something new to claim will cause a prolonged house price crash.

It’s only a matter of time.