Extend the uncertainty?

lisyloo

Uncertainty is here to stay (apart from death and taxes).

Actually I’ve always been rather keen on the certainty that if you keep up payments to a repayment mortgage you get a house at the end of it !

Anti biotic apocalypse soundsbad though.

AG47

lisyloo wrote: »

Uncertainty is here to stay (apart from death and taxes).

Actually I’ve always been rather keen on the certainty that if you keep up payments to a repayment mortgage you get a house at the end of it !

Anti biotic apocalypse soundsbad though.

Yes the uncertainty about Brecht is comparable to the antibiotic resistance problem. It's just getting worse and worse.

If we had left on March 32st that would have been like good natural antibiotic that can even kill superbugs with no side effects.

But as it is, the super bugs (brexit uncertainty) are spreading.

lisyloo

Hmm I think that the whole problem, leaving on 32st

AnotherJoe

Maybe thats the magic compromise that would suit everyone?
Hard core Brexit ; We definitely leave, with no deal, on 32st (sic, surely 32nd?).
Middle Way Brexit; We definitely leave, with a deal, on 32st.
Remainers ; Happy to leave on 32st.

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

Personally I think rising interest rates will be worse than brexit uncertainty as there’s the limit of affordability, although I don’t think we’ll see a crash.

Correction is a better term than a crash. Though the the BOE and PRA constantly monitor the situation. Consequently lenders can be forced to rein in mortgage advances or impose tighter underwriting criteria.

lisyloo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Correction is a better term than a crash. Though the the BOE and PRA constantly monitor the situation. Consequently lenders can be forced to rein in mortgage advances or impose tighter underwriting criteria.

Maybe I’m missing something, but how does that help if people simply can’t afford to buy due to rising interest rates? I.e. can’t meet the monthly payments.
Prices have gone high due to low interest rates. If interest rates rise and so do monthly payments then isn’t it inevitable that prices have to correct?
I would expect a lower number of BTL entrants going forward due to increasing regulation and taxes.

Malthusian

lisyloo wrote: »

Maybe I’m missing something, but how does that help if people simply can’t afford to buy due to rising interest rates?

If interests rise people will still be able to afford to buy. At present you don't get a mortgage unless you will still be able to afford to pay your mortgage even with a dramatic increase in interest rates. Therefore if that dramatic increase in interest rates happens, everyone who can currently afford a mortgage can still afford one. That assumption underpins the current (ludicrously strict) affordability criteria.

Affordability crtieria will be relaxed, people well-off and motivated enough to be owner-occupiers will make a few more sacrifices to ensure they aren't paying someone else's mortgage for the rest of their lives, and demand will remain exactly the same.

The government is not going to engineer a crash in house prices by keeping unnecessarily strict affordability criteria that were designed for the post-2008 zero interest rate environment. In the event that interest rates rose significantly, it would be ludicrous to keep affordability criteria artificially high on the basis that interest rates could rise dramatically again, when it would be just as likely, if not more likely, that they could fall and make existing mortgages more affordable.

AG47

My prediction is no deal hard brexit come Oct 31

Until then uncertainty all around which will make the housing crash even bigger

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

My prediction is no deal hard brexit come Oct 31

Until then uncertainty all around which will make the housing crash even bigger

That won’t happen.
Parliament are against it so will put legal instruments in place to stop it even though it’s the default.

AG47

lisyloo wrote: »

I think you’ll get a lot of people of all ages that are currently cared for by family for free (or low amour of carers allowance) wanting free “healthcare” if you define dressing/washing/feeding as “healthcare”.

Even if we remove the normal child rearing for the equation, personal care is not limited to the elderly.
There are people of all ages who are disabled or suffering illness.

I don’t think there is a appetite from the majority of tax payers to foot the bill for person care and it would be very difficult politically just to pander to a few who want to hoard their wealth.

There was a white paper a few years ago and it didn’t get implemented so change is very difficult and unpopular.

Do you really think the bulk of tax payers would like this? To help out a few relatively wealthy people?
I really don’t.

Most elderly people will need to take equity from their house to pay for the old age