Can you imagine the destruction in the UK if the property market crashed

Herzlos

AG47 wrote: »

You keep looking through rose tinted specs:rotfl:

Stress tests have been factored into mortgage affordability for a few a few years now. You can't get a mortgage if youbcant prove You can handle a 2-3ppt rate rise. Couple that with long term fixed rates potentially giving people 5 years to catch up with rate changes.
Then there's the mortgage interest help for people who become unemployed short term.

There would need to be made long term unemployment, or a huge, sustained interest rate rise before it made any real impact on repossessions and house prices. Again, those repossessions will be scooped up by the already rich.

You want to get a house? Convince the bank to get you a fixed rate deal NOW and get on the ladder, because it's easier to stay on than get on in a recession.

AG47

Herzlos wrote: »

Stress tests have been factored into mortgage affordability for a few a few years now. You can't get a mortgage if youbcant prove You can handle a 2-3ppt rate rise. Couple that with long term fixed rates potentially giving people 5 years to catch up with rate changes.
Then there's the mortgage interest help for people who become unemployed short term.

There would need to be made long term unemployment, or a huge, sustained interest rate rise before it made any real impact on repossessions and house prices. Again, those repossessions will be scooped up by the already rich.

You want to get a house? Convince the bank to get you a fixed rate deal NOW and get on the ladder, because it's easier to stay on than get on in a recession.

Disagree strongly. Why get on the ladder now when we may be looking at 35%+ crash over the next few years when the brexit debacle fallout takes root.

Interest rates will have to rise significantly as the pound tumbles.

The government will have to come up with some mighty creative ways to prevent an all out house price crash where banks are not able to lend and sellers will only have cash buyers as possible customers. And there nt to mny cash buyers in these uncertain times.

HTB 3 is going to be a higher percentage interest free lon for. Longer time frame with a lower deposit but still low income families will not be blue to buy until property comes down a long long way still.

triathlon

AG47 wrote: »

Disagree strongly. Why get on the ladder now when we may be looking at 35%+ crash over the next few years when the brexit debacle fallout takes root.

Interest rates will have to rise significantly as the pound tumbles.

The government will have to come up with some mighty creative ways to prevent an all out house price crash where banks are not able to lend and sellers will only have cash buyers as possible customers. And there nt to mny cash buyers in these uncertain times.

HTB 3 is going to be a higher percentage interest free lon for. Longer time frame with a lower

deposit but still low income families will not be blue to buy until property comes down a long long way still.

What is your ID on housepricecrash.com?

Herzlos

AG47 wrote: »

Disagree strongly. Why get on the ladder now when we may be looking at 35%+ crash over the next few years when the brexit debacle fallout takes root.

Because unless your sitting on enough cash to get you under about 30% LTV, you're going to be a worse position re. affordability after a hypothetical 35% crash than before it.


Which would you rather have:

£100k @ 2.5% APR or £65k @ 7% APR?

andrewf75

AG47 wrote: »

Disagree strongly. Why get on the ladder now when we may be looking at 35%+ crash over the next few years when the brexit debacle fallout takes root.

house prices will only crash 35% if the economy is screwed so it isn't going to help affordability! If and when prices crash it will be proportional to affordability!

If you own a home you don't care if it drops in value by 35% as long as you can afford the mortgage. Its a long term investment, which you pay off and own at the end. Doesn't really matter what its worth. The end goal is owning outright, then you can live for free or sell up and cash in. Freedom.

Our housing market is ridiculous and if you can't afford to buy I feel for you, but if you can and are choosing not to, you're crazy simple as that.

letitbe90

MobileSaver wrote: »

Actually Carney said worst-case scenario was as much as 35% but of course that's the problem with you, Crashy Time and other HPC fanatics; you are all glass half empty people and always assume the worst is a foregone conclusion.

The reality is that the worst case hardly ever happens, common sense normally prevails and that's why your numerous predictions have been so demonstrably wrong so many times.

Glass half empty is being too kind. I rather see it as glass smashed to the floor, when you look at their views over the years.


We won't have a 35% crash simply because, the government won't allow it, end of. If it was the case it was not possible to stop such a crash, house prices will be the least of the UK's concern, so large will be the damage to the country.

Malthusian

andrewf75 wrote: »

Its a long term investment, which you pay off and own at the end. Doesn't really matter what its worth. The end goal is owning outright, then you can live for free or sell up and cash in. Freedom.

Our housing market is ridiculous and if you can't afford to buy I feel for you, but if you can and are choosing not to, you're crazy simple as that.

Thing is that it's not ridiculous for the reasons you state. Owning your own house is an incredibly attractive investment. Not just in £ terms; the vast majority of the population, who struggle with abstract concepts including the value of a portfolio of electronically held shares, fully appreciate the value of owning your own home. It gives peace of mind over retirement plans. It allows you to paint your walls neon green and own 20 cats if you feel like it. It is made even more attractive by the tax system.

If anything it is a wonder that, thanks to a developed financial system, the person in the street can reasonably hope to own this incredibly valuable asset, rather than the privilege being restricted to the rich as it used to be a few centuries ago.

By contrast, if house prices did not continually rise, home ownership would be unaffordable for most as the person in the street would not have enough money to sink vast amounts into a declining asset, while paying off a loan that would have the same APR as car loans.

lisyloo

James_Green_1982 wrote: »

Wouldn't that mean ''selling low''?
Surely if prices fall, that's the time to buy - not sell.

All things being equal yes, but they aren’t because we’ve had taxes put on btl.

It won’t necessarily be selling low for people who’ve held a long time.
For example if you have 300% profit on paper but only liquidate at 200% then that might still be a great investment overall.
Many long term holders are doing very well indeed.

Property is not a liquid investment as almost everyone knows.

AG47

lisyloo wrote: »

All things being equal yes, but they aren’t because we’ve had taxes put on btl.

It won’t necessarily be selling low for people who’ve held a long time.
For example if you have 300% profit on paper but only liquidate at 200% then that might still be a great investment overall.
Many long term holders are doing very well indeed.

Property is not a liquid investment as almost everyone knows.

Property is not at all liquid, this is why the smart sellers are undercutting and lowering prices now because next few years will see much much lower prices

phillw

AG47 wrote: »

this is why the smart sellers are undercutting and lowering prices now because next few years will see much much lower prices

Ah, the classic "emperors new clothes" tactic.

Lowering your price because of what they will do in the next few years is dumb. You're either trying to sell your house now, or you're not.