Can you imagine the destruction in the UK if the property market crashed

James_Green_1982

AG47 wrote: »

Mike Maloney is awesome
His free Hidden secrets of money series on YouTube should mandatory viewing for all kids leaving school.

You must be a Russian Troll for even suggesting such a thing.

(I've been accused of being a Russian Troll so often, I'm beginning to think about applying for the job!)

mustiuc

Some of you might remember on other thread of "Crashy Time" when I said I wasn't very sure what I.m going to do and if is best to invest here or search something on continent instead.
Well, from what I could notice in the media these days we are heading more and more for a No deal and will end on 12th April.
Despite that, I applied for a mortgage here ignoring my wife's worries and panic. I think is our best time to get a house now (to live in, not to let, not to flip) because if the market goes down (I dont care, it will go up in time) the lenders will put the interest rates up and lending criteria will be more drastic. (You can have 25% deposit, if you dont meet lending criteria there will be no mortgage. It happened before)
Crashy time and other militants are hoping to get quick buck and get easy on property ladder. But in 2008/2009 why british people/everyone else didn't became millionaire after the markets went down? They could borrow/buy much much cheaper! Who took advantage of the crash market? Wealthy people/companies. Cash buyers !
If the uk market goes down 35% those with no mortgage will stay put and live their live without worries of montly repayments and those who can't afford to pay the mortgage will get repossessed (as it happened 10 years ago) and their houses will go at auction. Normal people dont use auctions! Lenders won't give you anymore 95%-90%. They wont lend you at all (as it happened before).

I read everyday this forum and to be honest, with all my education and life experience I am really struggling to understand some's ideas or strong opinions. I am being weird or everyone's around me is weird and I.m normal?

I really want to know why NORMAL people didn't became millionaire/wealthy after 2008.

AG47

mustiuc wrote: »

Some of you might remember on other thread of "Crashy Time" when I said I wasn't very sure what I.m going to do and if is best to invest here or search something on continent instead.
Well, from what I could notice in the media these days we are heading more and more for a No deal and will end on 12th April.
Despite that, I applied for a mortgage here ignoring my wife's worries and panic. I think is our best time to get a house now (to live in, not to let, not to flip) because if the market goes down (I dont care, it will go up in time) the lenders will put the interest rates up and lending criteria will be more drastic. (You can have 25% deposit, if you dont meet lending criteria there will be no mortgage. It happened before)
Crashy time and other militants are hoping to get quick buck and get easy on property ladder. But in 2008/2009 why british people/everyone else didn't became millionaire after the markets went down? They could borrow/buy much much cheaper! Who took advantage of the crash market? Wealthy people/companies. Cash buyers !
If the uk market goes down 35% those with no mortgage will stay put and live their live without worries of montly repayments and those who can't afford to pay the mortgage will get repossessed (as it happened 10 years ago) and their houses will go at auction. Normal people dont use auctions! Lenders won't give you anymore 95%-90%. They wont lend you at all (as it happened before).

I read everyday this forum and to be honest, with all my education and life experience I am really struggling to understand some's ideas or strong opinions. I am being weird or everyone's around me is weird and I.m normal?

I really want to know why NORMAL people didn't became millionaire/wealthy after 2008.

The 35% property crash will be long drawn out affair, could be over several years and then stay low for even longer.

Yes reposesssions will sky rocket when interest rates go back to normal, te government will have to provide a hell of a lot of emergency cheap housing

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

Yes reposesssions will sky rocket when interest rates go back to normal,

More conspiracy theorist fake news from AG47.

"Normal" interest rates are around 4% and so, for years now, mortgage affordability tests have been using up to 8.75% as a worst case scenario.

Consequently repossessions will NOT sky rocket if interest rates go back to normal.

GreatApe

AG47 wrote: »

The 35% property crash will be long drawn out affair, could be over several years and then stay low for even longer.

Yes reposesssions will sky rocket when interest rates go back to normal, te government will have to provide a hell of a lot of emergency cheap housing

Interest rates will be zero in real terms and will gradually get into negative numbers (they already are with inflation close to 3% and a mortgage can be had for 2%)

You have been wishing/warning for a decade now that interest rates are about to balloon but what has happened? They have gone lower and lower and for most people they are 10 years into paying off their mortgage and can fix today for 10 years more at 2.4% so twenty years virtually all their mortgage term at low low rates

You made a mistake and instead of admitting and learning you stick to your decade old failed theories

I have been saying for years, low interest rates killed the house price crash cheerleaders

You can rent for 5-6% or you can buy a house for 2.4% fixed for a decade.
That is a 26-36% over a decade which means you need a NOMINAL fall of 26-36% to make your bet worth taking. Add in 2.5% annual inflation and you need a REAL FALL OF 45% to come out on top over a ten year period. That is not going to happen and you have lost for the last decade and will continue to lose because you cannot understand/accept the math of buying at 2.4% is much better than renting at 5-6-7%

GreatApe

MobileSaver wrote: »

More conspiracy theorist fake news from AG47.

"Normal" interest rates are around 4% and so, for years now, mortgage affordability tests have been using up to 8.75% as a worst case scenario.

Consequently repossessions will NOT sky rocket if interest rates go back to normal.

Even if he was worried he could fix for 2.4% for a decade instead of paying 6% (+annual rent increases) to his landlord the difference of 3.6% in this example over a decade is 36% so even if there is a 35% nominal crash you are better off buying today rather than waiting a decade for the crash

Low interest rates mean waiting for a crash is stupid unless you can time the crash perfectly and it is a steep heavy crash that is very close (months rather than years away) which as proven by the crash cheerleaders timing the crash is impossible and if they could do that they could make magnitudes more money betting on said skills rather than waiting for a crash

GreatApe

The worst thing in all this is how much time they spend to save very small sums of money.
If a £200k home crashes 20% all that happens is a £897 mortgage becomes a £718 monthly mortgage

A grand saving of £180 a month.
Why not just go out and improve your earnings by £180 a month instead of spending 10,000 hours on being an expert house price crash cheerleader use that 10,000 hours to become an expert in something else which will improve your lot by more than £180 a month.
It isn't even £180 a month but half of that if a couple

The way some of the HPC cheerleaders go on you'd think their whole being their whole lives would be magnitudes better if only they could save £90 quid a month on their mortgage bill

AG47 spend your HPC cheerleading time in the gym you will look better live longer and have a mild high at the end of each workout and stop worrying about how £90 a month if going to change your life it wont

James_Green_1982

mustiuc wrote: »

Some of you might remember on other thread of "Crashy Time" when I said I wasn't very sure what I.m going to do and if is best to invest here or search something on continent instead.
Well, from what I could notice in the media these days we are heading more and more for a No deal and will end on 12th April.
Despite that, I applied for a mortgage here ignoring my wife's worries and panic. I think is our best time to get a house now (to live in, not to let, not to flip) because if the market goes down (I dont care, it will go up in time) the lenders will put the interest rates up and lending criteria will be more drastic. (You can have 25% deposit, if you dont meet lending criteria there will be no mortgage. It happened before)
Crashy time and other militants are hoping to get quick buck and get easy on property ladder. But in 2008/2009 why british people/everyone else didn't became millionaire after the markets went down? They could borrow/buy much much cheaper! Who took advantage of the crash market? Wealthy people/companies. Cash buyers !
If the uk market goes down 35% those with no mortgage will stay put and live their live without worries of montly repayments and those who can't afford to pay the mortgage will get repossessed (as it happened 10 years ago) and their houses will go at auction. Normal people dont use auctions! Lenders won't give you anymore 95%-90%. They wont lend you at all (as it happened before).

I read everyday this forum and to be honest, with all my education and life experience I am really struggling to understand some's ideas or strong opinions. I am being weird or everyone's around me is weird and I.m normal?

I really want to know why NORMAL people didn't became millionaire/wealthy after 2008.

Why do you care if your house drops in value? So long as any other house you may want to move to also drops in value, it makes no difference.

I own my own home. I'd be delighted if all the houses in the UK dropped in value by 50% tomorrow. It would mean my savings were worth more, in terms of house purchasing. So I could buy a bigger house.

Of course, the govt wouldn't be happy because it would reduce their SDLT take (aka tax on moving home).

James_Green_1982

AG47 wrote: »

The 35% property crash will be long drawn out affair, could be over several years and then stay low for even longer.

Yes reposesssions will sky rocket when interest rates go back to normal, te government will have to provide a hell of a lot of emergency cheap housing

That depends on what the govt decide to do. They don't have to raise interest rates. They can support mortgage payers with tax breaks (eg MIRAS), benefits (eg SMI) or they can just change the law to stop repossessions taking place.

These things are all matters of govt choice. They're not inevitable natural events like storms and floods etc.

James_Green_1982

GreatApe wrote: »

The worst thing in all this is how much time they spend to save very small sums of money.
If a £200k home crashes 20% all that happens is a £897 mortgage becomes a £718 monthly mortgage

A grand saving of £180 a month.
Why not just go out and improve your earnings by £180 a month instead of spending 10,000 hours on being an expert house price crash cheerleader use that 10,000 hours to become an expert in something else which will improve your lot by more than £180 a month.
It isn't even £180 a month but half of that if a couple

The way some of the HPC cheerleaders go on you'd think their whole being their whole lives would be magnitudes better if only they could save £90 quid a month on their mortgage bill

AG47 spend your HPC cheerleading time in the gym you will look better live longer and have a mild high at the end of each workout and stop worrying about how £90 a month if going to change your life it wont

Interesting that a ''double income'' is now assumed to be ''normal'' by so many of the public.
One of the factors that has actually increased mortgage lending and house prices.
Very insidious, yet successful, propaganda - drip fed over the years.

Back in the 1950, 60s, 70s, many men on reasonable wages could raise a family on one income.