Can you imagine the destruction in the UK if the property market crashed

The-Joker

BREAKING NEWS: Knife crime in the UK INCREASES DRAMATICALLY.

17.4 MILLION voters STABBED IN THE BACK!

Democracy as long as the votes go the way you want it, if the votes go the other way then come up with excuses and other options, or have more votes again and again until you get the result you want

phillw

The-Joker wrote: »

BREAKING NEWS: Knife crime in the UK INCREASES DRAMATICALLY.

17.4 MILLION voters STABBED IN THE BACK!

Democracy as long as the votes go the way you want it, if the votes go the other way then come up with excuses and other options, or have more votes again and again until you get the result you want

It sounds like what you need is another referendum to make your point, because parliament doesn't seem interested. They were always going to try for the softest of brexits, because ultimately they have a responsibility to make sure we don't all starve.

brexit has been ruined by leave voting MPs, but then you have to take some responsibility as you knew they were lying and still chose to vote that way.

AG47

phillw wrote: »

It sounds like what you need is another referendum to make your point, because parliament doesn't seem interested. They were always going to try for the softest of brexits, because ultimately they have a responsibility to make sure we don't all starve.

brexit has been ruined by leave voting MPs, but then you have to take some responsibility as you knew they were lying and still chose to vote that way.

It's the uncertainty that is more damaging than a no deal hard brexit that should have happened today

AG47

What are the thoughts now about what the bottom of the house price crash will be and how long to get there?

Is it still 35% crash over several years due to the fallout from the uncertainty?

Herzlos

The uncertainty will end sooner than several years - the EU won't let us keep mucking about.


I reckon we'll see a 10-20% average drop at worst, but that'll be skewed by the £6m places dropping to £4m, it's going to make no real difference to 'normal' houses. Affordability will get slightly worse and everyone will be slightly worse off.


But without knowing what Brexit is going to mean, it's almost impossible to have any certainty.


The only thing I can be certain of is that you're not going to be in any better position to buy than you are now. Sorry if that seems harsh.

lisyloo

lookstraightahead wrote: »

I've owned and rented. Are people really so obsessed with bricks? That's the main problem in this country - it shouldn't be such a huge deal.

Mathematically the savings are huge.
I’m not talking about speculative capital growth.
I’m talking about living In it and not paying rent.

There's a lot of false wealth out there. People who by pure luck are sitting on what they think is a fortune. It doesn't rest easy with me because I'm not sure they realise it could be lost overnight.

I’m hoping to live in my home another 40 years rent free.
Its not really possible for me to lose that benefit overnight (unless I die in which case my husband will live in it).

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

Is it still 35% crash over several years due to the fallout from the uncertainty?

Only in the fantasy world of the HPC zealots. :rotfl:

Back in the real world pretty much everyone else expects prices to stay roughly the same as now or increase by between just 1% and 3%. The main effect of Brexit uncertainty will be to make mortgages harder to get for people like you...

AG47

MobileSaver wrote: »

Only in the fantasy world of the HPC zealots. :rotfl:

Back in the real world pretty much everyone else expects prices to stay roughly the same as now or increase by between just 1% and 3%. The main effect of Brexit uncertainty will be to make mortgages harder to get for people like you...

Agreed mortgages will be harder to get for people like me, or the majority. How on earth this will not be even more downward pressure on property in your eyes is anybody's guess:rotfl:

Herzlos

AG47 wrote: »

Agreed mortgages will be harder to get for people like me, or the majority. How on earth this will not be even more downward pressure on property in your eyes is anybody's guess:rotfl:

If you can't afford it before or after, why do you care what the sale price of properties will be?


Lets face it, properties aren't going to be dropping to anywhere near where the average person becomes a cash buyer (£5k), so if people can't get mortages it's purely academic.


Somewhere well above average affordability, properties will start to become tempting to the rich. Given that people need to rent, and rents aren't that likely to drop far as no-one can afford to buy, it means if a house price drops, the yield increases.


So, with a finger in the air guess, if property prices drop by about 50% they'll become hugely tempting to cash buyers who can sit it out and make a fortune when the economy bounces back, or make a tidy yield if they don't. But in that case, they'd probably need to drop by about 75% before normal people could afford them, and even then, a 75% property drop means terrible things for the economy so they might still not be able to afford them.


Whatever happens, you lose.

phillw

AG47 wrote: »

Agreed mortgages will be harder to get for people like me, or the majority. How on earth this will not be even more downward pressure on property in your eyes is anybody's guess:rotfl:

The housing market will just become a target for large cash rich investors.

If smaller landlords pull out then they could create a monopoly which will allow them to push rents higher.