Housing market continues to slow....

Moncs_2

bridiej wrote:

I look forward to about 6 months time looking back at these types of thread and seeing just what has happened!

We to, love to have a crystal ball

meanmachine_2

bridiej wrote:

I look forward to about 6 months time looking back at these types of thread and seeing just what has happened!

I don't think the market works like that.

During the last crash all you heard was that prices would "recover next month" over and over and unless you took some time to look at the figures (which EVERYONE should do if they're interested in buying/selling), you'd still have thought that everything was rosy. Or at least that things would be rosy "next month" or in "six months time".

I don't think the general public, bless em, really realised what was going on until after the event. Am I right?

In six months time EAs and banks will still be telling us that things are fine and that it's never been a better time to buy, whether prices has stayed the same, dropped by 5%, crashed by 20% of fallen of a cliff.

That's what they do.

Only those who actually have to go through the hassle of selling or buying knows what is really going on, and as we can see, there aren't any buyers around. And potential buyers like me aren't going anywhere until sanity has been restored.

meanmachine_2

Moncs wrote:

Can someone answer me the below?

What do you think rates as a crash?? 10%, 20% drop in prices?
During the crash in the early 90's, what was the figure (%) in fell by?


My dad is looking to sell his house in Edinburgh, the middle of next year, it was valued in 2003 for £105,000, he is hoping to get between £110k and £120k for it.

Impossible to say. WHo knows where we'll be in 12 months' time.

I'd suggest your dad doesn't even think about it until nearer the time.

If that is impracticable, then you could keep an eye on nethouseprices.com to see what's happening in your area.

If the property is in a good area, with a desirable school catchment and is a quality property (not new build), then these factors are liable to offset any correction, should it come.

Moncs_2

meanmachine wrote:

Impossible to say. WHo knows where we'll be in 12 months' time.

I'd suggest your dad doesn't even think about it until nearer the time.

If that is impracticable, then you could keep an eye on nethouseprices.com to see what's happening in your area.

If the property is in a good area, with a desirable school catchment and is a quality property (not new build), then these factors are liable to offset any correction, should it come.

It is indeed in a fairly sought after area in Edinburgh (Clermiston), its an ex council house built in the mid 1950's. I would hope that all goes well for it once it comes to sell

meanmachine_2

Wow, according to the Halifax (a vested interest index), prices in May - the strongest month for the housing market - fell by 0.6%.

That's all the proof I need that there's a huge cprrection underway.

If prices fall during the busiest period in the property market, then you know there's no way back.

No wonder banks and EAs are begging for cuts to the base rate. It won't happen though, not with US rates on the up.

Well, no one on here can claim that they weren't warned.

dougk_2

The Halifax figures are seansonally adjusted and so don't actually show what has happened without using the past few (boom) years as a guide.

To quote

1. INDEX

[font=GHAMLG+Arial,Arial]The standardised index is seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Bureau of the Census XII moving-average method based on a rolling 84-month series. Each month, the seasonally adjusted figure for the same month a year ago and last’s month figure are subject to revision.

[/font]

2. STANDARDISED AVERAGE PRICE

[font=GHAMLG+Arial,Arial]

The standardised average price is calculated using the Halifax’s mix adjusted methodology.

Baiscially as I understand it this means if there is a trend in the change of types and locations of property being bought, the methododlgy can distort the priced index and also indicates why the figures from nationwide and halifax are different.

[/font]

meanmachine_2

Doug I'm happy to accept that all of these organisations basically use whatever data they fancy, to help them promote a particular argument.

But you either accept seasonally adjusted figures or you don't.

If not then we'll be seeing some HUGE drops during the autumn and winter months which Halifax will officially seek to "smooth out".

To suggest that a 0.6% drop during the strongest month of the year is a sign of a "soft landing" is barmy.

As I say, this is all reminiscent of last time. Lenders try to maintain everything is rosy when quite clearly it's not.

dougk_2

If you check the Halifax figures - UK overall
Q1 2005 - Seasonally Adjusted is 0.5% increase
Q1 2055 - Non Seasonally Adjusted is 9.7% increase

A bit of a difference - the second figure representing the change in actual figures not accounting for the time of year.

meanmachine_2

dougk wrote:

If you check the Halifax figures - UK overall
Q1 2005 - Seasonally Adjusted is 0.5% increase
Q1 2055 - Non Seasonally Adjusted is 9.7% increase

A bit of a difference - the second figure representing the change in actual figures not accounting for the time of year.

Doug, why are you so keen to convince us that the market isn't tanking?

Everyone knows why I, as a FTBer, would like to see prices return to their long term trend (requiring a fall of 30%). Why are you so keen to talk UP the market, even in the face of all the latest figures?

I'm not attacking you. I'm just curious as to why you think the market is healthy. Why do you honestly not think there's going to be a correction?

Or are you just hoping that the market's OK, having recently bought?

John_M_Business

Seems to me Doug isn't talking 'up' the market - in any case, does a poster like Doug really have so much influence??

Doug is reporting on what is actually happening at the moment. Not speculating...