Housing market continues to slow....

bridiej

deemy2004 wrote:

YES !

I posted exactly news from the housing market during the last crash.. basically as prices fell the estate agents were all saying how its a great time to buy !

What stuck in my mind was the channel tunnel !

Estate agents were saying how the channel tunnel would be great for housing ! Infact some mere months on the houses linked to the tunnel fell by by 20% !!!!!!!!!!!!

I will bump the thread.

Thing is Newington, Peene and Frogholt are literally NEXT to the tunnel, so therefore would be affected by lower prices. But the Tunnel in fact bought a lot of properties in these villages and rented to their staff.

meanmachine_2

Welol, if people are convinced that history isn't repeating itself, I'd take a read of this article. Velly interesting...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property/2003/09/17/prosy17.xml

EdInvestor

Hi meanmachine,

meanmachine wrote:

What data are you looking at?

If you look at the chart on page 20 of
this study you'll see that nominal house prices have only gone negative once in the last 50 years, in the 1990s when the last crash was fairly advanced.

So it's pretty unlikely to happen any time soon methinks, as prices would need to come down much further than they have so far.

meanmachine_2

Editor wrote:

Hi meanmachine,



If you look at the chart on page 20 of
this study you'll see that nominal house price inflation has only gone negative once in the last 50 years, in the 1990s when the last crash was fairly advanced.

So it's pretty unlikely to happen any time soon methinks, as prices would need to come down much further than they have so far.

Thanks for that, but I see at least SIX occasions where HPI has gone negative, and one of those periods lasted for 4 years. Am I misreading it?

What is the difference between real and nominal?

deemy2004

Editor wrote:

Hi meanmachine,



If you look at the chart on page 20 of
this study you'll see that nominal house price inflation has only gone negative once in the last 50 years, in the 1990s when the last crash was fairly advanced.

So it's pretty unlikely to happen any time soon methinks, as prices would need to come down much further than they have so far.

It is more likely to happen now than at anytime since the war ! Because we have LOW inflation... The inflation in the 70's was upwards of 20%, in the eightees and / early nighties above 5% Today it is mere 2 to 3%.

meanmachine_2

I'm confused.

A house bought in 1989 for £100K would have cost £60K in 1994.

Is that not an example of negative y-o-y HPI?

budgetflyer

http://www.propertyenquiries.co.uk/id77.html

have a look at some of these increases and draw a graph.It would be up off the page by october

Moncs_2

Can someone answer me the below?

What do you think rates as a crash?? 10%, 20% drop in prices?
During the crash in the early 90's, what was the figure (%) in fell by?


My dad is looking to sell his house in Edinburgh, the middle of next year, it was valued in 2003 for £105,000, he is hoping to get between £110k and £120k for it.

deemy2004

The fall won't be uniform... it will depend on the area / buildign etc.

After the last crash you would have street full of houses that no one would buy at literally ANY price !

bridiej

I look forward to about 6 months time looking back at these types of thread and seeing just what has happened!