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30% fall in property if no deal brexit
Comments
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... and net non-EU immigration remains at 250,000 or more, supporting demand further.Secretagentsssshhhh wrote: »Immigrants who are in uk are not being made to leave after Brexit so no dramatic drop in demand there.I am a mortgage broker. You should note that this site doesn't check my status as a Mortgage Adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Mortgage Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice. Please do not send PMs asking for one-to-one-advice, or representation.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Most people would still vote to leave in a second ref. IMO (There won`t be a second ref.)
We don't even know what will be on the ballot paper, so soing that we will vote to leave again is rather premature.
Leave with what criteria, we don't know yet, more than one option, multi-list voting system, we don't know yet.0 -
Not sure why people expect mass sell offs in the event of property prices falling. The reality is people stay put and wait it out, transactions fall but pure supply and demand keeps prices buoyant as the population still needs places to live. This is happening right now.
If property prices fell 30% or 90%, I'd still sell my MIL's empty flat to pay her nursing home fees (in fact the LA would demand it) at whatever the market rate was.
I'd still stay in my home.
There might be a few investors who would be persuaded but the 3 D's (death, divorce and debt) would continue as normal and most people would carry on living in their homes.0 -
lookstraightahead wrote: »A massive proportion of people rent through choice
Yes, second choice.0 -
The_Earl_of_Streatham wrote: »Yes, second choice.
Not always.
I'm renting for a short term contract and putting my money into a SIPP with 45.8% relief (20% tax, 12% NI, 13.8% employers NI).
My MIL is paying "rent" in a nursing home. First choice for her too.0 -
The_Earl_of_Streatham wrote: »Yes, second choice.
Maybe they're not just thinking shall I buy or shall I rent. Maybe they have different priorities.0 -
Not sure why people expect mass sell offs in the event of property prices falling. The reality is people stay put and wait it out, transactions fall but pure supply and demand keeps prices buoyant as the population still needs places to live. This is happening right now.
Not in the volumes some on here would like to believe, and certainly not at any price (as shown by falling transactions and mortgage approvals)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-6620839/How-Britains-239billion-buy-let-bubble-burst.html0 -
I can’t say it won’t happen in the same way I can’t guaranteed you won’t be struck by lighting tonight, but various people have control over what happens i.e. the eu, the British government, mps, House of Lords and Bank of England and all those parties will do everything in their power to avoid economic Armageddon.
So I think it’s highly unlikely.
Mark Carney did mention a 30% drop but that was worst case with a chaotic brexit that some people have been planning for a year to avoid, so his words need to be taken in context I.e. a warning of what could happen if we did nothing in order to AVOID exactly that (context if highly important).
So why are we a few weeks away from a "No Deal" Brexit in that case (which we have been constantly told will be "Economic Armageddon") Is it because it won`t really be economic Armageddon, and some people are using this excuse to try and hijack a democratic vote, or is it because their powers of control are not at the level you believe?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Not in the volumes some on here would like to believe, and certainly not at any price (as shown by falling transactions and mortgage approvals)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-6620839/How-Britains-239billion-buy-let-bubble-burst.html
The link shows much smaller number of BTL landlords entering the market (quite sensibly) as it no longer stacks up.
and house price growth slowing (but still rising).
What was your point? as I can't see the connection between people wanting places to live, volumes and BTL not stacking up.
Maybe I'm being a thick today, but perhaps you can explain your point and the connection to the link you posted? as I'm always keen to learn from others especially opposing viewpoints.0 -
Would a fall in house prices be a bad thing?0
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