30% fall in property if no deal brexit

Crashy_Time

DaveandMayu wrote: »

Channel 4 news just said it will be at least 30% crash in property prices if no deal.

The good news is the uk will save the 39billion divorce fees

Most people would still vote to leave in a second ref. IMO (There won`t be a second ref.)

lisyloo

DaveandMayu wrote: »

Channel 4 news just said it will be at least 30% crash in property prices if no deal.

The good news is the uk will save the 39billion divorce fees

The second bit is untrue.
We will be paying because we owe it and if we don’t meet our obligations we have no chance of anyone wanting to trade with us.

The first is absolute worst case scenario which everyone will do everything in their power to avoid - so won’t happen.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

The second bit is untrue.
We will be paying because we owe it and if we don’t meet our obligations we have no chance of anyone wanting to trade with us.

The first is absolute worst case scenario which everyone will do everything in their power to avoid - so won’t happen.

Like the "Banking Crisis", Trump, Brexit and No Deal Brexit "Won`t happen", or do you mean really won`t happen, and how could you possibly know this?

lisyloo

I can’t say it won’t happen in the same way I can’t guaranteed you won’t be struck by lighting tonight, but various people have control over what happens i.e. the eu, the British government, mps, House of Lords and Bank of England and all those parties will do everything in their power to avoid economic Armageddon.
So I think it’s highly unlikely.
Mark Carney did mention a 30% drop but that was worst case with a chaotic brexit that some people have been planning for a year to avoid, so his words need to be taken in context I.e. a warning of what could happen if we did nothing in order to AVOID exactly that (context if highly important).

Secretagentsssshhhh

Firstly I think we should all keep in mind that in 2008 all these so called experts didn’t predict the house prices falls. So taking their word now is based on what?

In Scotland years ago there was a rental market in the cities but almost no rental market out with. Now everywhere you go including rural villages and commuter towns there are properties to rent and people renting them.

No longer do alll owner sell their currently property to buy the next one. Instead they often keep it, leave 25% equity in it and a btl mortgage. This is one reason why we now have so much demand and not enough supply.

During/after Brexit In the event people need to move and can’t sell they will probably rent them instead keeping prices high.

We have higher demand and lower supply than we use to for houses. People living longer, more singles/divorced, immigration, btl landlords, Airbnb. This is keeping prices high. None of these are about to disappear overnight. Immigrants who are in uk are not being made to leave after Brexit so no dramatic drop in demand there.

Finally during the last recession when prices came down no one except the most secure could borrow money. I know this as I was one of them and was stuck renting for 4 years at a cost of £8400 per year or £33,600 for the 4 years. More than most prices dropped by plus i had the insecurity of renting and it’s effect on my life ( can’t decorate, can’t have pets etc). I would far rather have been in my own home sitting out the uncertainty at least reducing my mortgage.

In short, house prices are complicated and a function of many factors. They are impossible to predict and listening to these “experts” is just daft. You may as well ask your dog.

P.s. my dog has just told me he was chatting to his doggy mates about this at the park and they are predicting foreign buyers will snap up our cheap sterling based property keeping demand high. The local cat community are estimating a surge in pent up demand and a rise in prices when a deal is struck or the leaving date extended. Fido and Fluffy will be on the news tomorrow along with property expert Crashy to discuss.

_CC_

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Most people would still vote to leave in a second ref. IMO (There won`t be a second ref.)

If enough younger people went out and voted in a second referendum then we'd be staying in, just as was the case in the first vote.

The demographics of who voted for what totally contradict your belief that people voted because house prices are too high.

_CC_

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Like the "Banking Crisis", Trump, Brexit and No Deal Brexit "Won`t happen", or do you mean really won`t happen, and how could you possibly know this?

Because this outcome can be easily avoided by UK lawmakers who are largely against it.

We'd either delay or revoke article 50 if the alternative is no deal.

lookstraightahead

If it does fall it's a correction rather than a drop. House prices are way over valued generally at the moment.

lookstraightahead

connors07 wrote: »

A house is worth when the combination is met between what someone is willing to pay and what someone is willing to sell for. On the day that we 'leave' am I going to accept 30% less of what the market said the day before? No. Nor will most.

The problem is we have created a nation of false wealth through exaggerated house prices. People believe they have lots of equity and therefore take on debt. If house prices are corrected then that perceived wealth disappears. Also lots of people always need to sell through divorce, death and of course debt.

A massive proportion of people rent through choice - not everyone sees house ownership as a necessity.

I think it will be a shock to many - you even see on here people wanting to sue because their house value has gone down.

51mm5

lookstraightahead wrote: »

The problem is we have created a nation of false wealth through exaggerated house prices. People believe they have lots of equity and therefore take on debt. If house prices are corrected then that perceived wealth disappears. Also lots of people always need to sell through divorce, death and of course debt.

A massive proportion of people rent through choice - not everyone sees house ownership as a necessity.

I think it will be a shock to many - you even see on here people wanting to sue because their house value has gone down.

Not sure why people expect mass sell offs in the event of property prices falling. The reality is people stay put and wait it out, transactions fall but pure supply and demand keeps prices buoyant as the population still needs places to live. This is happening right now.