Buy now or wait till BREXIT

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So more council tax on empty homes and mortgage lending massively down from a few years ago doesn`t relate to house prices/transactions also being under pressure from Brexit......?...Ok

Empty homes are a tiny factor but it’s correct that there’s a penalty.

Prices/transactions are under pressure for a variety of reasons mainly us not building anywhere near enough to satisfy increasing demand. Immigration, people living longer, staying in their own homes longer, smaller households, Btls, second homes, foreign buyers and brexit aRe all putting on pressure.

But prices are still rising.

In individual cases (like mine) houses are selling quickly for full asking price. All depends on the individual situation.

I’m glad there have been some adjustments/wobbles to empty properties and btl as I think it fairer.

If it wobbles so what??
Property is a long term home or investment.
No one should be expecting to make a quick buck.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

Empty homes are a tiny factor but it’s correct that there’s a penalty.

Prices/transactions are under pressure for a variety of reasons mainly us not building anywhere near enough to satisfy increasing demand. Immigration, people living longer, staying in their own homes longer, smaller households, Btls, second homes, foreign buyers and brexit aRe all putting on pressure.

But prices are still rising.

In individual cases (like mine) houses are selling quickly for full asking price. All depends on the individual situation.

I’m glad there have been some adjustments/wobbles to empty properties and btl as I think it fairer.

If it wobbles so what??
Property is a long term home or investment.
No one should be expecting to make a quick buck.

So you think there is more demand, but prices are under pressure and less homes are selling because of this increased demand? Something doesn`t add up there I`m afraid.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

HMRC are totally underfunded and don’t even have enough resources to go after the low hanging fruit.
As usual you present zero evidence to back this up

As for empty properties, it completely correct that there is a disincentive for keeping empty properties (and I say that selling one myself), but the fact is they are a tiny part of the problem, so maybe a teacup saucer.

But good, some plates should wobble.

The majority of landlords who owned for a while and have tenants in situ are going to do nothing at all.

http://www.irishnews.com/business/2018/10/22/news/the-hmrc-let-property-campaign-for-landlords-not-paying-their-taxes-1462293/

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you think there is more demand, but prices are under pressure and less homes are selling because of this increased demand? Something doesn`t add up there I`m afraid.

Yep I agree it’s not perfectly worded, so I’ll put my big girl pants on and take that on the chin.
Demand can be used in two ways, one of them incorrectly.
For example we could say there is a huge demand for Ferraris but we really mean desire as most of it is not real demand in the economic sense.

There is a huge pent up desire for houses and this will stop prices falling too fall (subject to confidence).
Real demand is low because affordability has hit the buffers.
So we are in a stagnation position where the only people buying/selling are those who either have to or for some reason have got lucky e.g. windfall.
However prices are not crashing because there is a huge amount of pent up desire.

It will take a significant event to causes prices to crash and this is very unlikely to happen due to the fact that the government and boe will do everything in their power to avoid it.

Even with brexit we will avoid the worse case scenario and warnings are put out to avoid exactly that.

I think we’ll have staganating prices and in general a permanently high plateau and anyone wanting to buy should just get on with it.

There might always be a black swan event like war or antibiotics apocalypse but then you could also get run over by a bus and personally I Think it’s best to plan life taking likelihood into account.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

Yep I agree it’s not perfectly worded, so I’ll put my big girl pants on and take that on the chin.
Demand can be used in two ways, one of them incorrectly.
For example we could say there is a huge demand for Ferraris but we really mean desire as most of it is not real demand in the economic sense.

There is a huge pent up desire for houses and this will stop prices falling too fall (subject to confidence).
Real demand is low because affordability has hit the buffers.
So we are in a stagnation position where the only people buying/selling are those who either have to or for some reason have got lucky e.g. windfall.
However prices are not crashing because there is a huge amount of pent up desire.

It will take a significant event to causes prices to crash and this is very unlikely to happen due to the fact that the government and boe will do everything in their power to avoid it.

Even with brexit we will avoid the worse case scenario and warnings are put out to avoid exactly that.

I think we’ll have staganating prices and in general a permanently high plateau and anyone wanting to buy should just get on with it.

There might always be a black swan event like war or antibiotics apocalypse but then you could also get run over by a bus and personally I Think it’s best to plan life taking likelihood into account.

Prices are not crashing because we have zero interest rates, that is all that is holding the pretence up now. Transactions are falling because there ISN`T huge pent up desire for houses, not at any price, and even if there was the banks won`t lend at those levels anymore, and we haven`t even had Brexit yet and all that could entail for the numbers of people wanting to live here!
Also the tax changes for BTL and mutterings about tax/council tax on 2nd homes etc. show that the PTB are NOT necessarily supporting house prices like they once were. Politicians follow the votes, and as the events of the last couple of years show the votes are telling the politicians to get their act together on the price of housing and the numbers of people coming into the country. Politicians care about votes, not if Joe Soap can afford to run a couple of BTL`s in Blackpool and have a cottage in the country to read his Landlord Today magazines in. Take him out of the game and that is potentially three votes from happy local FTB`ers

lisyloo

I’ve been lurking since 2001 when str (sell to rent) was a thing 18 years ago.
The problem is that for women starting work at age 22
, they have 13 years before their fertility declines.
That mean most women that want a family can’t wait several decades for the markets and career to be ideal before starting a family.

For most people it’s going to make sense to just get on with it because even if we did agree the market was artificially propped up there is no way that most people can time it accurately and get their careers and finances and family planning together at the right time when confidence in property would be at an all time low around every family dinner table.

I bought in 1991 which wasn’t great timing and at one point we were in negative equity, however we were also IN the market when prices rose and now own outright at 50, so in general it’s better to get on when you can (unless you have massively subsidised rent from parents).
There may be some troughs but as I said you’ll be bought in on the ups.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

I’ve been lurking since 2001 when str (sell to rent) was a thing 18 years ago.
The problem is that for women starting work at age 22
, they have 13 years before their fertility declines.
That mean most women that want a family can’t wait several decades for the markets and career to be ideal before starting a family.

For most people it’s going to make sense to just get on with it because even if we did agree the market was artificially propped up there is no way that most people can time it accurately and get their careers and finances and family planning together at the right time when confidence in property would be at an all time low around every family dinner table.

I bought in 1991 which wasn’t great timing and at one point we were in negative equity, however we were also IN the market when prices rose and now own outright at 50, so in general it’s better to get on when you can (unless you have massively subsidised rent from parents).
There may be some troughs but as I said you’ll be bought in on the ups.

It doesn`t really matter what people want (or you think they want) the situation is what it is, a global debt bubble just bursts when the interventions stop working or the economic climate changes (rising rates) It doesn`t stop to take account of what some middle class people hoping to start families think. Many people do want to "get on" and buy houses, but they can`t because houses are too expensive! Something has to give, and it is giving, so large mortgage debt now could be a lot more damaging to many than renting cheaply or living at the parents for a while.

badgerhead

I'm not buying now, but that is not due to Brexit. With my job I get subsidised rent and move every few years. This allows me to live with my family instead of just at the weekends and to continue to save large amounts each month. If my job meant staying in one place for at least 10 years in a place i liked i would probably buy now. I'm saving lots but inflation could nullify this over the next few years. If it doesn't then i still lose out on years paying off a mortgage.

So in summary, buying right now doesn't suit my lifestyle. If I did I would buy now.

diggingdude

It isn't Brexit that's influencing the sale of houses I have been looking at, it seems to be changes for landlords which means properties I like are becoming available at the end of people's tenancies

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It doesn`t really matter what people want (or you think they want) the situation is what it is, a global debt bubble just bursts when the interventions stop working or the economic climate changes (rising rates) It doesn`t stop to take account of what some middle class people hoping to start families think. Many people do want to "get on" and buy houses, but they can`t because houses are too expensive! Something has to give, and it is giving, so large mortgage debt now could be a lot more damaging to many than renting cheaply or living at the parents for a while.

A lot of measures have been put in place since the last financial crisis e.g. capital requirements for banks.

Can you show your source for the property market “giving” (we shouldn’t have to ask you to back up your claims all the time).
Loads of us would be really interested in this.

Not everyone can rent cheaply or live with their parents e.g. if your job isn’t close to your parents or your career e.g. fashion has to be in central London.