Buy now or wait till BREXIT

Crashy_Time

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6546825/Six-10-local-authorities-drop-property-transactions-amid-endemic-housing-crisis.html

51mm5

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6546825/Six-10-local-authorities-drop-property-transactions-amid-endemic-housing-crisis.html

Yet on average prices are still rising according to the last ONS figures. You’ve been banging on about sales transactions for ever but it’s Brexit uncertainty/sentiment that is probably causing a slow down as the credit availability has not changed, interest rates are still extremely low (not likely to change anytime soon), there’s no explosion in forced sellers as people I just going to sit tight which will cause supply to be further constrained. Transactions have not slowed due to high prices as they’ve been high for the last 20 years according to you, so that can’t be right. Why the slow down in transactions now do you think? :rotfl:

Homersimpson

Crashy_Time wrote: »

20 years ago was the START of the bubble, 10 years ago was the START of the bailouts to try and prop up the global debt bubble (property was a beneficiary of this global bailout program, if that is the right term for something that has become so socially/politically damaging) To compare then with now isn`t really a great idea if you are thinking of borrowing large sums of money IMO, especially when one of the main CB`s seems hell bent on raising rates.

There will always be someone predicting a massive crash and it will never come, houses won't drop 25% its just not going to happen. I remember being on the HousePriceCrash website when I was looking and both times the doom sayers on there were predicting massive house price apocalypses which didn't come.

Anyone who bought around where I live in the last 20 years (the time I started looking) is better off today than they would have been if they had waited for the huge crash that never came, thats a fact. Yes if you bought in 2007 you would have been kicking yourself for not waiting till 2009 but even then they are still better off today.

Houses might drop but they will go back up, if you buy one and it drops 20K then its a bummer but its not the end of the world, if you sell it then the next house you but will also be proportionally cheaper so its all relative.

You buy a house because you need to live somewhere and you have to accept the prices are what they are at the time you buy.

You can of course guard against drops by doing some sensible things (some of which seem lost on a lot of buyers).

• Leave yourself some slack when looking at mortgages, don't go to your maximum in case rates rise or your financial circumstances change (I admit this one can be hard in some areas but people need to accept that they might have to have a three bed semi not a detached).
  
  Never and I will repeat that NEVER buy a new build unless you will stay in it for many years, they carry a premium for being new and will drop in value and you won't get back what you paid for them. I know several people who have bought new build 1/2 bed flats then have wanted a family, need to move and find that the flat is worth less than they paid for it so they are stuck.
  
  Buy houses that you can improve, old functional bathrooms, kitchens, decorations etc. put people off but as long as its habitable you can do it up a bit at a time of 5-10 years and you can save a lot of money (I saved around £35-40K on mine although it did need a new roof which I paid someone to do at a cost of 5K, everything else was old and dated but you could have lived in it).

Crashy_Time

51mm5 wrote: »

Yet on average prices are still rising according to the last ONS figures. You’ve been banging on about sales transactions for ever but it’s Brexit uncertainty/sentiment that is probably causing a slow down as the credit availability has not changed, interest rates are still extremely low (not likely to change anytime soon), there’s no explosion in forced sellers as people I just going to sit tight which will cause supply to be further constrained. Transactions have not slowed due to high prices as they’ve been high for the last 20 years according to you, so that can’t be right. Why the slow down in transactions now do you think? :rotfl:

So you don`t think credit availability has changed from 10 or 20 years ago :rotfl: 20 years ago the banks were gearing up to lend to the public like there was no tomorrow, 10 years ago the CENTRAL banks were gearing up to lend to the banks like there was no tomorrow, now the central banks want to raise interest rates and transactions are crashing, and you say that prices are still high as if that is a good thing? :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

Homersimpson wrote: »

There will always be someone predicting a massive crash and it will never come, houses won't drop 25% its just not going to happen. I remember being on the HousePriceCrash website when I was looking and both times the doom sayers on there were predicting massive house price apocalypses which didn't come.

Anyone who bought around where I live in the last 20 years (the time I started looking) is better off today than they would have been if they had waited for the huge crash that never came, thats a fact. Yes if you bought in 2007 you would have been kicking yourself for not waiting till 2009 but even then they are still better off today.

Houses might drop but they will go back up, if you buy one and it drops 20K then its a bummer but its not the end of the world, if you sell it then the next house you but will also be proportionally cheaper so its all relative.

You buy a house because you need to live somewhere and you have to accept the prices are what they are at the time you buy.

You can of course guard against drops by doing some sensible things (some of which seem lost on a lot of buyers).

• Leave yourself some slack when looking at mortgages, don't go to your maximum in case rates rise or your financial circumstances change (I admit this one can be hard in some areas but people need to accept that they might have to have a three bed semi not a detached).
  
  Never and I will repeat that NEVER buy a new build unless you will stay in it for many years, they carry a premium for being new and will drop in value and you won't get back what you paid for them. I know several people who have bought new build 1/2 bed flats then have wanted a family, need to move and find that the flat is worth less than they paid for it so they are stuck.
  
  Buy houses that you can improve, old functional bathrooms, kitchens, decorations etc. put people off but as long as its habitable you can do it up a bit at a time of 5-10 years and you can save a lot of money (I saved around £35-40K on mine although it did need a new roof which I paid someone to do at a cost of 5K, everything else was old and dated but you could have lived in it).

You must have missed the price drops in 2008 and the biggest central bank bailout in history to keep the debt ticking over, and the fact that one of the main central banks is now aggressively raising interest rates?


I bet there were people sitting in bars in Tokyo in 1989 saying "Property will never ever crash, not in a million years will there be a 25% correction" :rotfl:


https://housingjapan.com/buy/history/


There is a Freudian slip in the first paragraph, see if you can spot it

51mm5

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you don`t think credit availability has changed from 10 or 20 years ago :rotfl: 20 years ago the banks were gearing up to lend to the public like there was no tomorrow, 10 years ago the CENTRAL banks were gearing up to lend to the banks like there was no tomorrow, now the central banks want to raise interest rates and transactions are crashing, and you say that prices are still high as if that is a good thing? :rotfl:

I’m going to ask for specifics as you never tend to answer questions directly, so what and when where these changes and when did transactions start to decrease? If you don’t answer this then well .....you’re trolling..,.again.

Homersimpson

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You must have missed the price drops in 2008 and the biggest central bank bailout in history to keep the debt ticking over, and the fact that one of the main central banks is now aggressively raising interest rates?


I bet there were people sitting in bars in Tokyo in 1989 saying "Property will never ever crash, not in a million years will there be a 25% correction" :rotfl:


https://housingjapan.com/buy/history/


There is a Freudian slip in the first paragraph, see if you can spot it

Nope I didn't miss the 2008 'crash' , houses round by me dropped 10%

What you and all house price crash people fail to see is that had I listened to you 10 years back I now wouldn't be living in my own house with 5 years left on the mortgage, I would be renting praying for house prices to crash so I could buy one for the price I would have paid 10 years ago had I not listened to the house price crash lot.

Houses will go up they will go down but the government know that a massive correction in house prices would be really bad for the economy as some people would just hand the keys back to the bank and go bankrupt (those with high LTV) or people who were still in the black so tospeak with would feel they had lost money and would reduce their spending.

I agree that houses are massively overpriced and it's not right but it also won't change because too many people have too much to lose and the government and bank of England know that.

I tell you what, let's come back to this in 10 years and see who was right!

lucycarter88

I will wait for Brexit. As it may cut down the interest rates.

PhilE

steampowered wrote: »

I'm sorry but what are you on about?

The current government increased the inheritance tax threshold to £325,000 per person or £650,000 for a married couple (while offsetting that by increasing VAT and national insurance).

There was a suggestion that Labour might want to reverse that increase, i.e. back to where it was, a maximum of £425,000 for a couple. Though that didn't make it into the manifesto so it is difficult to know whether it would have been implemented or not.

I'm not sure what universe you are living in where £425,000 of tax free cash with amounts above that being subject to IHT is a tax on "lower income people". VAT and NI on the other hand ...

Labor definitely will increase IHT. 325K will get you a small flat in certain parts of London, if your lucky. If your happy with IHT, good for you. Many aren't.

fussyhumanbeing

Don't listen to the doomsdayers, I have held out because of brexit though. I'm already seeing prices come down in my area. I think in a worst case scenario with no deal, prices could drop a further 10-15%, after that they will recover. I don't think 30% is possible.

If there is a brexit deal I do see prices slowly recovering and the downside risk will go IMO.