Woodford Patient Capital

dividendhero

Midas wrote: »

My guess would be that sooner or later the WPCT board will be forced to take a stronger line on Woodford, quite possibly removing him from the role of portfolio manager..

And replacing him with Chris Grayling

MaxiRobriguez

Up 8% today so far with news of Seneca topping up their holdings of WPCT but what could equally just be a dead cat bounce.

Holding fire until things settle down a bit - still think it'll put in a new low over the next few days.

Midas

jamei305 wrote: »

What is the Trust without Woodford's name though? A mishmash of early-stage companies left over by a failed manager now managed by someone you've never heard of with no track record?

I view it as a very high risk investment, but with the potential at the price I got to return a decent profit over the next few years. There are clearly some duds in the trust. There are also some companies which I'm quite excited about (Oxford Nonopore for example). So as a tiny fraction of my overall portfolio I'm happy to take a punt on it. People can't have it both ways - either Woodford is a complete duffer who knows sod all about investing (in which case the trust will be better off without him and with a different manager). Or, perhaps for all his faults he knows a little more about investing than the average commentator on an internet forum, and and has managed to find some interesting early-stage start-ups. If only one or two of these go big at some point in the next 5-10 years the trust could be in clover. Personally I find Woodford's view that the sectors WPCT is invested in are likely to be key growth areas in the next few decades convincing. Of course the bigger question is whether he has found the right companies in those sectors - on that I am much less certain, hence only a £1k investment rather than a serious one!

AnotherJoe

Midas wrote: »

Or, perhaps for all his faults he knows a little more about investing than the average commentator on an internet forum,

As I saw elsewhere when a similar question was asked;
"have you ever invested in a cold fusion startup? If the answer is "no", then congratulations, you are a better investor than NW."

As of current price just under 45p, I reckon its still got another 30% to fall to equalise with what would be a realistic NAV after they completely write off the dross. People will presumably get a clue soon that there's a much lower NAV revaluation coming. Especially if with new management who will want to get all the bad news out of the way sharpish.

And then it should fall below that, because why would you buy it at NAV or a premium to NAV when it will just have a bunch of the same dull FTSE companies in it.

ffacoffipawb

AnotherJoe wrote: »

As I saw elsewhere when a similar question was asked;
"have you ever invested in a cold fusion startup? If the answer is "no", then congratulations, you are a better investor than NW."

As of current price just under 45p, I reckon its still got another 30% to fall to equalise with what would be a realistic NAV after they completely write off the dross. People will presumably get a clue soon that there's a much lower NAV revaluation coming. Especially if with new management who will want to get all the bad news out of the way sharpish.

And then it should fall below that, because why would you buy it at NAV or a premium to NAV when it will just have a bunch of the same dull FTSE companies in it.

WPCT will not invest in FTSE 100 companies, that will be WEIF.

Both duds though.

AnotherJoe

ffacoffipawb wrote: »

WPCT will not invest in FTSE 100 companies, that will be WEIF.

Both duds though.

I said FTSE not just FTSE100. What else can they invest in? After they sell off / write off the dross who would have any faith (and that's what you'd need) that whatever else they bought was any better than the junk they previously chose .... though come to think of it maybe I'm under a misapprehension that they are UK only since IH isn't (AFAIK)

ffacoffipawb

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I said FTSE not just FTSE100. What else can they invest in? After they sell off / write off the dross who would have any faith (and that's what you'd need) that whatever else they bought was any better than the junk they previously chose .... though come to think of it maybe I'm under a misapprehension that they are UK only since IH isn't (AFAIK)

WPCT mostly in unlisted stuff, no FTSE at all.

Top 10 holdings (as % of gross asset value)
Name Industry
Benevolent AI Technology
Proton Partners International Health Care
Oxford Nanopore Health Care
Atom Bank Financials
Industrial Heat Industrials
Autolus Health Care
Industrial Heat A1 Pref Industrials
Immunocore A Health Care
Kymab B Pref Health Care
Mission Therapeutics

AnotherJoe

Fair enough for some reason I thought they had smaller FTSE in there as well and have probably confused that with EI.
it's pretty much all dross, they have bust the 80% limit what will they replace it with? Haven't they exhausted the list of dross to invest in?
So perhaps it's more likely they will just shut it down, it's in a vicious spiral now.

jamei305

I'm surprised they don't already have a significant stake in LiftPort Group.

Brian65

Midas wrote: »

I view it as a very high risk investment, but with the potential at the price I got to return a decent profit over the next few years. There are clearly some duds in the trust. There are also some companies which I'm quite excited about (Oxford Nonopore for example). So as a tiny fraction of my overall portfolio I'm happy to take a punt on it. People can't have it both ways - either Woodford is a complete duffer who knows sod all about investing (in which case the trust will be better off without him and with a different manager). Or, perhaps for all his faults he knows a little more about investing than the average commentator on an internet forum, and and has managed to find some interesting early-stage start-ups. If only one or two of these go big at some point in the next 5-10 years the trust could be in clover. Personally I find Woodford's view that the sectors WPCT is invested in are likely to be key growth areas in the next few decades convincing. Of course the bigger question is whether he has found the right companies in those sectors - on that I am much less certain, hence only a £1k investment rather than a serious one!

Yes, but as NAV falls, and more of these start ups make cash calls, leverage is increasing above what was agreed with the lenders. So the Trust has to raise cash and AFAIK can only do that by selling the stuff that looks promising?