Woodford Patient Capital

AnotherJoe

M, I think we are 99% in agreement, the point we'll have to agree to disagree on is that I think investing into Cold Fusion is also "dumb" and I wouldnt, literally even put 1p in it, because ... well, we've been over that before .... think perpetual motion machines as shorthand.


Love the rest of your past there though, bang on.

MaxiRobriguez

AnotherJoe wrote: »

M, I think we are 99% in agreement, the point we'll have to agree to disagree on is that I think investing into Cold Fusion is also "dumb" and I wouldnt, literally even put 1p in it, because ... well, we've been over that before .... think perpetual motion machines as shorthand.


Love the rest of your past there though, bang on.

Probably, but stranger things have happened. It wasn't that long ago the sound barrier was thought of as a physical barrier that was impossible to cross. Cold fusion may turn out to be dumb but other things which sound equally dumb will come to fruition.

Reaper

Dragging the thread back to the main topic there is a worrying headline. But first a bit of background...

When Woodford started breaching his 10% limit on unquoted stocks on his Income fund he came up with a sneaky dodge and persuaded some of his larger unquoted holdings to register on the obscure Guernsey stock exchange, meaning they were no longer unquoted and did not count towards his total. That stock exchange hasn't much liked all the press attention and has now thrown out 3 of his holdings so they are back to being unquoted again:
The infamous Industrial Heat, Benevolent AI and Ombu.

That increases the amount of unquoted stocks again back to the level they truly are before he "cheated". Bad for Woodford Income but possibly bad for Patient Capital. I can't read past the headline here (can anybody else?) but it's a worrying one:
Investec: ‘sell’ Woodford Patient Capital, trust close to breaching 80% unquoted limit

Firstly I didn't know there was an 80% limit on the fund. Can anybody confirm?
Secondly does it really have as much as 80% unquoted? That sounds a lot more than I was expecting and worrying if so.

iglad

WillGates wrote: »

I'm not sure where you get your information from but the SP500 is up more than 34% since Trump became the US president.

You talk about trump like he's some active investor when he's merely been carried along by the economic tailwinds of the last administration. He's started a trade was which he cannot win nobody can and he's caused a slow down in global trade.

There's an old saying 'If it ain't broke don't fix it' trump could have sat and basked in the glory of a rising stock market, low levels of unemployment but no he had to pick a fight with China, EU etc.

AnotherJoe

Reaper wrote: »

Firstly I didn't know there was an 80% limit on the fund. Can anybody confirm?
Secondly does it really have as much as 80% unquoted? That sounds a lot more than I was expecting and worrying if so.

Yes, I saw this reported elsewhere last week. AIUI the situation is that the 80% is a self-imposed limit and was previously a 60% limit which he raised to 80% so he could always raise the limit again. I dont think there's a regulatory issue in the same way as with EI.

Given that its probably now approaching 100% (since BAI and IH were about 15% ) the only way to realise money is with valuations of these being improved and there being buyers for them, but at the moment, as someone else pointed out, they (by definition) will be selling off the better stocks (since who would buy the rubbish?) and hence the % of rubbish is increasing.

I'm wondering if someone might buy it all at say 50% current NAV. Or maybe it will just implode be wound up and 10% be returned to creditors.
Do you own WPCT? If so suggest you pay attention to Christopher Lloyd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXb0zcEM-rI

iglad

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Here's someone who not only tried to catch the knife but snatched at it again after it badly cut them the first time.
Ouch !

And two more. (Read the tagline). ....... https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/stifel-ups-patient-capital-to-buy-as-investors-capitulate/a1179999?section=investment-trust-insider

The question now is, if the true NAV is around 30p which is what I've got on my fag packet, how much below that will it dip given the difficulty is selling at true value. At the moment I believe it's still at 30% premium. Or OTOH will Greater Fo,ols like those above weigh in and keep it higher ?

I read the piece with my mouth wide open as the writing was well and truly on the wall way back in 2018 along with the poor performance. I wonder if he's had to move his retirement date back as WPCT share price has halved since then.

iglad

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Yes, I saw this reported elsewhere last week. AIUI the situation is that the 80% is a self-imposed limit and was previously a 60% limit which he raised to 80% so he could always raise the limit again. I dont think there's a regulatory issue in the same way as with EI.

Given that its probably now approaching 100% (since BAI and IH were about 15% ) the only way to realise money is with valuations of these being improved and there being buyers for them, but at the moment, as someone else pointed out, they (by definition) will be selling off the better stocks (since who would buy the rubbish?) and hence the % of rubbish is increasing.

I'm wondering if someone might buy it all at say 50% current NAV. Or maybe it will just implode be wound up and 10% be returned to creditors.
Do you own WPCT? If so suggest you pay attention to Christopher Lloyd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXb0zcEM-rI

here's me thinking it was a youtube video on the market falls: :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Reaper

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Do you own WPCT?

I used to but fortunately (through luck rather than judgement) sold out before all the recent troubles.

Crag30

Rightly or wrongly, I bailed out. I didn't have a lot in it, and thought at first to put some more in, but with all the bad publicity I can't see it improving.

MaxiRobriguez

Crag30 wrote: »

Rightly or wrongly, I bailed out. I didn't have a lot in it, and thought at first to put some more in, but with all the bad publicity I can't see it improving.

Probably wise.

The chances of a Woodford led recovery are slim to none, so the other possibility of profit is a winding down of the fund if the NAV is anywhere close to being accurate, which again is probably unlikely.

Much higher chance of a new investor at this point losing money than there is gaining.