Exchange now or after brexit plan is finalised?

fussyhumanbeing

I'm very close to exchanging on a property.

Obviously the current political turmoil is causing a lot of distress - with BoE warning of a 30% fall in house prices in the event of a chaotic no deal.

My two options are:

1) Exchange now and get it done with (before the parliament vote)
2) Exchange in the new year after the government puts forward an amended plan after (presumably) the parliamentary meaningful vote rejects the current deal next Tuesday.

What would you do? I'm in a healthy equity position but want to make the most prudent decision possible. I need a home of my own but I'm currently living with my parents.

The property is in London.

davidmcn

You think Brexit will all be finalised by the New Year? Which year?

Seriously, I would just get on with it if you want to buy, it's not like you'll get a better long-term view of house prices in the near future.

fussyhumanbeing

I meant we will probably have a better idea if there would be a

1) No deal
2) Renegotiation attempt
3) Second referendum

etc

by the 1st of Jan 2019

Surrey_EA

How long do you plan to own the property for?

The 30% figure was given as an absolute worst possible case scenario, not a prediction.

davidmcn

fussyhumanbeing wrote: »

I meant we will probably have a better idea if there would be a

1) No deal
2) Renegotiation attempt
3) Second referendum

etc

by the 1st of Jan 2019

Possibly, yes. But not a better idea of how any of that might affect the property market. I think everyone has already taken into account that there's a high likelihood of some sort of Brexit.

hazyjo

Getting these daily now - maybe we need a separate Brexit property worries board lol!


You need a home - buy one (choose carefully! And don't buy if you are planning to sell up and not buy again in the next 5 years). I don't see why it's more complicated. I've been through two recessions. There will ALWAYS be things predicted that threaten yet another. Go back to yearly posts on the board or search the word 'recession' and check out the same worries over different issues over the last 10+ years.


Remember rates are currently low, and low deposits are generally accepted still. That may well change if prices drop, and it may be harder to obtain a mortgage. I have no idea how that would affect you (although note you appear to have a lot of equity/deposit).

MEM62

fussyhumanbeing wrote: »

I'm very close to exchanging on a property.

Obviously the current political turmoil is causing a lot of distress - with BoE warning of a 30% fall in house prices in the event of a chaotic no deal.
Scaremongering. Mark Carney has form for it and is often proved wrong.

My two options are:

1) Exchange now and get it done with (before the parliament vote)
2) Exchange in the new year after the government puts forward an amended plan after (presumably) the parliamentary meaningful vote rejects the current deal next Tuesday.
Do you want the house or not? More importantly, is the seller prepared to wait until you have addressed your fears?

What would you do? I'm in a healthy equity position but want to make the most prudent decision possible. I need a home of my own but I'm currently living with my parents.

The property is in London.

You need a home. Buying always has risk considerations, the economy, job security, interest rates, the list goes on. Nobody knows what the future holds. Wait until you have 100% certainty and you will never buy.

ciderboy2009

hazyjo wrote: »

Getting these daily now - maybe we need a separate Brexit property worries board lol!

It would be quite easy to answer any queries on it - a choice of "nobody knows" or "don't be so stupid".

On a serious note - ignore anything Carney says as he's needed a new crystal ball for years now! He was always and still is one of the key players for Project Fear.

Also, forget about the possibility of a second referendum - it will never happen as it would be political suicide.

hazyjo

ciderboy2009 wrote: »

It would be quite easy to answer any queries on it - a choice of "nobody knows" or "don't be so stupid".

Absolutely 100% agree.


If it's not this, it will be something else. Us Brits do seem to love a bit of scaremongering lol...


Even the weather reports every year threaten horrendous winters or disastrous summers or unbearable heatwaves. Nothing is ever just 'expect a normal one like most other bloody years'...

AdrianC

davidmcn wrote: »

You think Brexit will all be finalised by the New Year? Which year?

The year after hell freezes over.

Which, frankly, is more likely to result in a positive outcome.

novelty-socks

I'm in a similar position: first-time buyer in London, healthy deposit (~40%), offer accepted, currently working through some issues from the survey. Realistically, we're not going to get to exchange until January, so I'm not feeling quite the same pressure.

I'm hoping that the whole Brexit charade will come crashing down and we'll stay in the EU, leading to renewed confidence in London and making my choice to buy now look canny.

But I'm not betting on it - most likely, I think, is an ongoing fudge that leads to a gradual, ongoing decline in prices over the next couple of years. And that's fine: my income is good, my mortgage payments are low, and I won't be looking to sell anytime soon.

Ultimately, I see it this way:

* I've been renting for years, but changes in my circumstances now mean that I need a place to live where I can redecorate, put shelves up, furnish, etc, etc to meet my requirements. In the UK, it's very unlikely I can find that in a rented place. So I need to buy to achieve the lifestyle I want. (If our rental market was different, I'd happily keep renting.)
* Mortgage rates are super-low, and if I fix for five years my payments will be lower than what I spend on rent at the moment. I don't see London rents crashing anytime soon, either. So if you take house prices out of the picture, in terms of ready cash, I may be better off in five years' time, if I buy.

I should add that I'm buying in a part of London where I think there's little scope for price growth, but where I also think prices should be somewhat protected from any slump. They'll probably fall, but slower than in some areas. (Of course, I could be completely wrong on this.)