Brexit vs Crossrail

catshark88

Carney has no more idea than anyone else what will happen to prices. They may go down and the Chinese (or someone else) may then buy more.

I'm more worried about what will happen when interest rates go up.

I'm waiting to buy in London, until at least 2020, to see what happens. I'm buying an investment though. If I was buying a home, I'd buy now, not overstretch mysel and pay off any mortgage as fast as possible.

macman

The Crossrail property effect peaked at least 3 years ago, it's been in the planning stage for decades, and construction began back in 2009.
If you are looking for a similar opportunity now, then I'd start looking along the route of Crossrail 2, which in theory could commence construction in 2023. Though you'll have to wait to 2030 to actually use it.

EachPenny

You've missed the boat on Crossrail... 2004 or 2005 was probably a good time to buy for that.

You could take a punt on a location near Crossrail2, but as that has been around since the 1970's (laterly as the Chelsea-Hackney line) then you've probably missed the boat on that one too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossrail_2

And as a cautionary tale, as you might expect the "Chelsea-Hackney" name indicated that the route would go to Hackney in the north and continue on via one of the Central Line branches. Time has steadily ticked away, and the current proposals feature brand new routes to Broxbourne (in Hertfordshire) and New Southgate in North London. The 'Hackney' bit has become something of an afterthought... smart money might bet it will never be built.

So buying before a scheme has been approved and spades are in the ground carries with it the risk that the project will get canned. Buying after a scheme has been approved means you'll be too late.

patch9495

As this is our first property we unfortunately were not in a position to be able to buy when Crossrail was first announced. Our dilemma was do we stretch ourselves to afford a property next year (which due to jobs will be in a Crossrail location) in the hope it will appreciate due to this, or stay more within our budget and overpay the mortgage on what we have.

Okrib

patch9495 wrote: »

Im only going off Bank of England estimated figures for Brexit. 5% GDP shrinkage if deal goes through and 8% if no deal. Either way this indicates a recession which using common logic should equate to a fall in house prices (at least short term).

There were predictions of a recession, shock budget, 20% house price fall and 500,000 people losing their jobs immediately following a leave vote in 2016. Did any of those come true?

Economic predictions are famous for being useless.

Fix your mortgage rate and if you can get a property you like now I would take advantage of the uncertainty.

hazyjo

Seriously, forget Crossrail. Why not have your number one essential as 'location' generally. A nice desirable location, buy something smaller if necessary. I would much rather be buying in somewhere like Highams Park (if you need to get somewhere like Liv St) than Forest Gate or Goodmayes!

sal_III

patch9495 wrote: »

As this is our first property we unfortunately were not in a position to be able to buy when Crossrail was first announced. Our dilemma was do we stretch ourselves to afford a property next year (which due to jobs will be in a Crossrail location) in the hope it will appreciate due to this, or stay more within our budget and overpay the mortgage on what we have.

Buy / live where it suits you NOW, not where it will suit the next owner. As long as the prices don't collapse in the long run (and i don't see this happening in London / SE) it shouldn't matter whether your home will rise in value by 0%, 5% or 20%. This should be at the bottom of your priorities.

Also IMHO 1 mile from the station is at the edge of being a walking distance, definitely not a walking distance with kids if you rely on said station for main transport. Meaning that I don't think the value of properties will be affected by cross-rail so far from the station.

hazyjo

sal_III wrote: »

Also IMHO 1 mile from the station is at the edge of being a walking distance, definitely not a walking distance with kids if you rely on said station for main transport. Meaning that I don't think the value of properties will be affected by cross-rail so far from the station.

Totally agree. Mile's way too far anyway for London. If you're buying in London, you want to be an absolute 0.8m max from any station. More like 0.5m. The nearer to Central London you get, the shorter distance people will expect to walk to get to a station.

ReadingTim

patch9495 wrote: »

As this is our first property we unfortunately were not in a position to be able to buy when Crossrail was first announced. Our dilemma was do we stretch ourselves to afford a property next year (which due to jobs will be in a Crossrail location) in the hope it will appreciate due to this, or stay more within our budget and overpay the mortgage on what we have.

As mentioned by basically everyone here, you've missed the boat for Crossrail 1 price rises - you'll need to be speculating on HS2, Crossrail 2 or some other public transport/infrastrucure project for those sorts of price rises. Or 'gentrification' of the sort seen in East London over the last 10-15 years.

However, as a property owner already (rather than an FTB, which your first post implied), you'll find that what you gain as a buyer, you'll lose as a seller, or vice versa, so it's a double-edged sword.

Check your own mortgage terms, but mine allowed overpayments to be 'borrowed back', for example as a deposit on a new house. If yours offers that facility, suggest you get overpaying ASAP - it'll be good practise to see whether you're comfortable stretching yourselves. However, if you're having to rely on large price rises to make stretching yourselves a sustainable long-term strategy, then I suggest you can't really afford to move in the first place.

Personally, unless there's a massive problem with the current place, I'd be tempted to sit tight until "after Brexit" (whatever that means), and in the meantime overpay, whilst having a long and hard think about the extent to which you can genuinely afford to move in the event neither house prices or your incomes rise very much over the next 5 years. I'd also consider other life events which may impact that - getting married or having children, for example.

EachPenny

ReadingTim wrote: »

As mentioned by basically everyone here, you've missed the boat for Crossrail 1 price rises - you'll need to be speculating on HS2, Crossrail 2 or some other public transport/infrastrucure project for those sorts of price rises. Or 'gentrification' of the sort seen in East London over the last 10-15 years.

As mentioned above, the boat on HS2 and Crossrail2 has also been pretty much missed.

The connectivity offered by HS2 (in the London area) is going to make little difference to anyone. It will affect property in the the areas where travel into London will become quicker, but nobody will seriously think about buying in London with easy HS2 access in order to commute to Birmingham or beyond.

Unlike Crossrail1 which was essentially a connectivity scheme (linking Heathrow to the City), Crossrail2 is about congestion reduction and increasing capacity. The route largely mirrors the Piccadilly, Northern and Victoria Lines and the primary purpose of the current proposals is to tackle congestion on the northern parts of those routes, and especially around the Kings Cross/Euston area (into which HS2 will disgorge its passengers).

I think it would be a struggle to find anywhere on the Crossrail2 route (certainly in the northern half) where property prices don't already reflect the high level of connectivity into Central London. For example, the area around New Southgate is served by trains to Moorgate and Kings Cross, and Arnos Grove tube station is a short walk away. The Crossrail2 station there will not create new connectivity, it will just make the journey slightly less crowded.