Carney - the man who keeps crying wolf

A_Pandiculation

sevenhills wrote: »

The UK population is growing at its slowest rate in 14 years because Brexit means fewer EU migrants are arriving here without a job, ONS figures show.



Slowing immigration will lead to lower growth, that will be factored into the figures too.
Our most productive immigrants from inside the EU are on the decline, immigrants from further afield will be less educated and cost the taxpayer more.



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/28/uk-population-growing-slowest-rate-14-years-fewer-eu-migrants/

Except that's not quite true.

Quarter of a million immigrants per year, the ONS reveals today. That's on the high side of average since the early noughties, so certainly no fall there to suggest that the UK population is growing at it's lowest rate. Don't believe The Telegraph's story-selling blurb.

Oh and it;'s disingenuous (bordering on racist actually) to describe migrants from outside the EU as less-educated than EU migrants, especially when all of us can see those extremely well-educated car wash workers and manicurists that arrived from EU countries.

Also, continuing increase might affect growth (the two don't necessarily go hand-in-hand but that's perhaps better suited to another debate) but it most certainly does increase the strain on infrastructure and services. We're still not building enough houses, roads etc. etc. etc. - and if we did that alone would probably lead to increased growth.

lisyloo

If your average person lives another 10 working years

Not sure of the point your making here.
Over the last 40 years life expectancy has gone up 10/8 years (male/female) and state pension age has gone up 2/7 years.


We are having a longer retirement and living longer with more ailments and needing more personal, residential and nursing care.


(I downloaded the data from here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/articles/howhaslifeexpectancychangedovertime/2015-09-09)



We are also starting work later than we used to. Was 14/15 and now 21/22.

sevenhills

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

Oh and it;'s disingenuous (bordering on racist actually) to describe migrants from outside the EU as less-educated than EU migrants, especially when all of us can see those extremely well-educated car wash workers and manicurists that arrived from EU countries.

I understand its a fact that EU immigrants contribute more to our economy, I assume that is because they enter higher paid jobs.
This is because they are most likely better educated.

sevenhills

lisyloo wrote: »

Not sure of the point your making here.

My retirement age is 67, so I will be working an extra 2 years; so I will be productive for 2 more ears.

lisyloo

sevenhills wrote: »

My retirement age is 67, so I will be working an extra 2 years; so I will be productive for 2 more ears.

Yes - I said 2 for male in my post above (2/7 - male/female).


However you're going to live 10 years longer (on average) and probably take from the state as a minimum from GPs/NHS even if you are well enough off to be self funding for long term care (which not everyone is).
Not everyone needs long term care but most people over 60 start visiting their doctor more and treatment for diabetes, arthiritis, catheracts, replacement knees, replacement hits etc. are expensive.


I am saying your extra 2 years you are productive, don't fund the extra 10 your living in declining health as we keep you alive from cancer/strokes/heart attacks and replace your joints.


My state retirement age has gone up 7 years but I am not changing my actual retirement date, so bear in mind that those well off enough to retire early will not be more productive. This includes a number of people providing vital services e.g. GPs. Those people will be living longer but won't be more productive.

sevenhills

lisyloo wrote: »

I am saying your extra 2 years you are productive, don't fund the extra 10 your living in declining health as we keep you alive from cancer/strokes/heart attacks and replace your joints.

I disagree.


If I am short on funds I will carry on working, as many other people do. Technowledgy is improving what the NHS can do, it can do more and cheaper.

lisyloo

sevenhills wrote: »

I disagree.


If I am short on funds I will carry on working, as many other people do. Technowledgy is improving what the NHS can do, it can do more and cheaper.

I disagree.


Your tax contribution will be not that high compared with say £10-£12K knee operation
https://www.axappphealthcare.co.uk/health-information/musculoskeletal/knees/what-is-the-cost-of-a-full-knee-replacement/


Technology has inproved the chances of surviving cancer/heart attacks/strokes and treaments like joint replacements have improved pain levels and day to day living for many, however the cost has gone up.


The cost of carers at home, residential homes, nursing care has increased (on average) due to the higher numbers of people surviving caner/heart attacks/strokes and going on to develop conditions such as dimensia where eventually they need 24/7 care.


Your working years do not pay for many weeks in a nursing home at approx £1K per week.


You've also ignore the fact that people start working later.
Many people don't start work until 22 - with gaps years, second degrees being more common and 50% now going to uni.
Back in the 1950's a lot of people started work at 15 and only a small proportion went to university which is now 50%.


It appears yuo are ignoring the fact that (on average) people now start many years later.

sevenhills

lisyloo wrote: »

It appears yuo are ignoring the fact that (on average) people now start many years later.

It has been stated that people born recently will live until they are 100

lisyloo

sevenhills wrote: »

It has been stated that people born recently will live until they are 100

and currenly suffering more conditions than they used to (obeisity, diabetes, alzheimers) some because of lifestyles and some because we are keeping people alive from strokes/cancer/heart attacks.


BTW - Not everyone will be able to work the extra (productive) years as some will have to retire early on medical ground in their 60's.
I personally think that could be as high as 50% by the time SPA reaches 68.
Others will be unable to carry on physically demanding jobs like carpet fitting in their lat 60's and will have to move to lower paid work.


Also you are assuming there will be no age discrimination from employers which of course there will be in some jobs (especially unskilled and physical).

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

It has been stated that people born recently will live until they are 100

My late grandmother was born in 1898 (reign of Queen Victoria) and lived happily until she was 99 and 4 months. Looked after herself in her own home, climbed stairs even. Died in her sleep of a heart attack. Looking after yourself isn't anything new.