Carney - the man who keeps crying wolf

sevenhills

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Global growth appears to be slowing. The forecast will no doubt look at far more factors than Brexit alone. The UK still faces the twin challenges of high Government and personal debt. Which will restrict the ability of the UK economy to grow. Unless people decide to work harder and become more productive..........

The UK population is growing at its slowest rate in 14 years because Brexit means fewer EU migrants are arriving here without a job, ONS figures show.



Slowing immigration will lead to lower growth, that will be factored into the figures too.
Our most productive immigrants from inside the EU are on the decline, immigrants from further afield will be less educated and cost the taxpayer more.



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/28/uk-population-growing-slowest-rate-14-years-fewer-eu-migrants/

Carl31

Matt_L wrote: »

I watched someone from the city of London today sum it up best when he said these forecasts are as accurate as picking one particular week in 15 years and guessing the weather forecast for that week...

whats the point of forecasting 15 years in the future, so many variables between then and now, general elections, post brexit activity

Look back 15 years, I bet theres not one forecast anywhere that predicted what is happening in the UK right now

LHW99

I think the argument today is that this is a "scenario" not a forecast

BLB53

Just part of the establishment elite's effort to undermine Brexit and eventually reverse the referendum decision. Robbins has done his bit by negotiating such a rubbish deal that nobody can support. The fear factor for no deal has been ramped up to maximum. They've got the left campaigning for a people's vote...looks like they are succeeding.

spadoosh

This forecast is great news. It just shows that the very worst case scenario given by someone who is renowned for going OTT with worst case scenarios just isnt that bad.

The reality is, it if it works out exactly like Carneys worst case scenarios suggests, wed still be in a better position than most eurpean countries (france and germany the only exceptions.) I mean living in spain isnt that bad is it? The suggestion seems to be we're facing the apocalypse. Yet spain live worse than that day to day so it just cant be that bad.

Filo25

Tarambor wrote: »

It is funny how nobody seems to be reporting on the assumptions that these reports were based on.

Quite clearly the markets read the ENTIRE reports and not just the Project Fear summary reported on the news and weren't unduly concerned, pound was up against both EUR and USD. I'm guessing that the assumptions these predictions were based on are pretty unlikely to happen let alone over a 15 year period.

It is also worth noting that these reports make assumptions about the growth of the EU economy remaining consistent for the period covered and the chances of that happening are about as much as being hit by lightning.

The markets aren't worried because they don't think they are getting "no deal" at the end of the process, I would think something looking like May's deal is pretty much priced in to Sterling and UK equities

Filo25

BLB53 wrote: »

Just part of the establishment elite's effort to undermine Brexit and eventually reverse the referendum decision. Robbins has done his bit by negotiating such a rubbish deal that nobody can support. The fear factor for no deal has been ramped up to maximum. They've got the left campaigning for a people's vote...looks like they are succeeding.

The good old Establishment elite, not like those working class common folk like Farage, Boris Johnson, Ress-Mogg......

veryintrigued

My favourite bits of his speach where when he was attempting to compare how bad things may be against the financial crisis.

You know that financial crisis that the BoE didnt see coming!

sevenhills

Carl31 wrote: »

whats the point of forecasting 15 years in the future, so many variables between then and now, general elections, post brexit activity

Look back 15 years, I bet theres not one forecast anywhere that predicted what is happening in the UK right now

Think about what increases a countries wealth, technology and population size.
If your average person lives another 10 working years or more people enter the country and work.

andrewf75

Always find it amusing that people rubbish economic forecasts, but assume they can only be wrong in the direction that suits their point of view! If there is a margin of error then it is both ways. Some trade expert on LBC the other day was saying that he thinks the report massively understates the risks.

I also don’t understand why Brexiteers are so keen to claim there isn’t going to be a hit on the economy. If there isn’t, then you won’t have got the major changes you wanted, surely!? Spadoosh’s view makes sense. Anyone scared of a bit of a recession shouldn’t be supporting something as radical as Brexit.