Carney - the man who keeps crying wolf

veryintrigued

If you state something x n it will eventually become true seems to be his motto.

Beit interest rate rises or implosion of the British economy

Remind me - is the BoE still, in any part, independent from the Treasury?

A_Pandiculation

veryintrigued wrote: »

If you state something x n it will eventually become true seems to be his motto.

Beit interest rate rises or implosion of the British economy

Remind me - is the BoE still, in any part, independent from the Treasury?

Yes, I do wonder if he was only "encouraged" to stay for the sole purpose of continuing his assumed role as Chief Fearmonger. Because let's be honest, he's done nothing else of any note - and he's not exactly known for getting things right.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-carney-eats-humble-pie-on-brexit/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/its-time-for-mark-carney-to-stop-fighting-the-brexit-referendum/

System

It is funny how nobody seems to be reporting on the assumptions that these reports were based on.

Quite clearly the markets read the ENTIRE reports and not just the Project Fear summary reported on the news and weren't unduly concerned, pound was up against both EUR and USD. I'm guessing that the assumptions these predictions were based on are pretty unlikely to happen let alone over a 15 year period.

It is also worth noting that these reports make assumptions about the growth of the EU economy remaining consistent for the period covered and the chances of that happening are about as much as being hit by lightning.

sevenhills

We have had slower growth since the referendum, we are no longer the top of the growth league.
I haven't seen any forecasts about the positive effects of Brexit, except from Rees-Mogg.

Thrugelmir

Forward guidance doesn't do any harm. Interest rates are likely to rise in any event. In certain scenarios a little quicker.

A_Pandiculation

sevenhills wrote: »

We have had slower growth since the referendum, we are no longer the top of the growth league.
I haven't seen any forecasts about the positive effects of Brexit, except from Rees-Mogg.

This is supposed to be about Carney.
But since you decided to talk about growth etc. why haven't you acknowledged that the latest statistics show the UK growing three times faster than the Eurozone; Q3 0.6% UK vs 0.2% Eurozone.

Forecasts BTW are just that; forecasts. Often they aren't exactly accurate, at least partly because figures can be interpreted differently depending on bias. In fact you might as well read your horoscope. Then there's no point forecasting the impossible; if you don't know exactly the conditions ahead all you're doing is guessing.

sevenhills

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

This is supposed to be about Carney.
But since you decided to talk about growth etc. why haven't you acknowledged that the latest statistics show the UK growing three times faster than the Eurozone; Q3 0.6% UK vs 0.2% Eurozone.
.

The gist of Carneys forecast was correct, growth has been lower, one good quarter does not reverse that.
It may be that a deal will settle things down, what we don't want is more uncertainty.

Matt_L

I watched someone from the city of London today sum it up best when he said these forecasts are as accurate as picking one particular week in 15 years and guessing the weather forecast for that week...

ManAtHome

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Forward guidance doesn't do any harm.

Of course it does - any borrower, personal or business, who has taken action on Carney's predictions on interest rates (always going up sooner than you may think...) over the last few years and locked into long-term rates has been stuffed. Equally, savers who have stayed with instant or short-term rates likelwise.

Why bother with 'forward guidance' that has proved to be 100% wrong/misleading?

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

The gist of Carneys forecast was correct, growth has been lower, one good quarter does not reverse that.
It may be that a deal will settle things down, what we don't want is more uncertainty.

Global growth appears to be slowing. The forecast will no doubt look at far more factors than Brexit alone. The UK still faces the twin challenges of high Government and personal debt. Which will restrict the ability of the UK economy to grow. Unless people decide to work harder and become more productive..........

Nasqueron

Fairly obvious that losing free trade to our largest market (which no deal will be - the worst case scenario looked at by the bank) will harm our economy. The delusion of Project Hate is really laughable, even Rees-Mogg admitted it might be 50 years to see any benefit of Brexit.