Jupiter India in freefall

Malthusian

phillsmit3 wrote: »

Yeah good point. I know you're not meant to try and guess the market but I couldn't just watch it going down.

That is perfectly understandable, and even sensible if Jupiter India is beyond your risk tolerance and you should never have invested in it in the first place. But it doesn't answer my question.

My question was why you want to buy back in when it is more expensive, so you can go through the pain of watching it go down again.

JohnRo

FDa65rdk wrote: »

I initially invested in Jupiter India in April 2017 when it was 148p. I invested again in July this year when it was 131p.

Overall I'm down by 22%. It's the only investment in my portfolio that is down overall.

So held for a very short period then. As for paper losses you're fortunate.

here's my allocation to BRWM for a 'loss' comparison (with rebalancing)

2018-10-01 + 34.14% TR
2016-01-18 - 58.27% TR
2014-08-07 + 7.67% TR

You just have to allocate, stick to the long term plan and tough it out.

phillsmit3

Malthusian wrote: »

That is perfectly understandable, and even sensible if Jupiter India is beyond your risk tolerance and you should never have invested in it in the first place. But it doesn't answer my question.

My question was why you want to buy back in when it is more expensive, so you can go through the pain of watching it go down again.

Well I sold my when they were about 125
If we assume long term growth (most people who are still in this fund do) as long as I buy back before it goes over 125 again I have done alright.
Even if I bought back today I will have done better than holding them.

I know guessing the market isn't always a great thing to do but if I start seeing any growth and also hear positive things about India's politics and economy it might be a time to buy again. If (and it's a big if) I do buy back I will try and make sure it's when it seems to be on the rise and still below 125.

It can never be a cert. There is a risk doing what I have done but also a big risk just staying in because I would have lost over 10 percent by staying in. I agree with the idea of holding for the long term but if you are quite active and regulary check the prices there is nothing wrong with making adjustments to your portfolio.

Malthusian

phillsmit3 wrote: »

Well I sold my when they were about 125
If we assume long term growth (most people who are still in this fund do) as long as I buy back before it goes over 125 again I have done alright.

Except the chances are you won't buy back in before it goes over 125p. If you thought the shares were a dud at 125p you won't want them at 110p when they'll feel like a worse dud.

Every investor likes to think they can buy low or sell high but the fact is that 99% of them don't - if more than 1% of investors bought low the shares wouldn't be low in the first place. From inside your own head it might seem like you are in that 1% but from outside it, the odds are against it.

Even if I bought back today I will have done better than holding them.

Unless you sell them when they fall by 40% again - which is more than possible - and crystallise a further loss.

I know guessing the market isn't always a great thing to do but if I start seeing any growth and also hear positive things about India's politics and economy it might be a time to buy again.

By the time you hear enough positive things about India to make you feel better about the shares than when you sold them, they will already be above 125p. That's how markets work.

Let's take the crash of 2007-2009 as an example. By 2009, huge numbers of people and institutions had dumped their shares and were sitting in cash, which is why the FTSE was at 3,700. If you look at newspapers from this period, were they saying that it was a fantastic time to invest? No, they were saying that the UK might go bankrupt and that there would be a decade-long recession.

So in 2010 when the FTSE had started to recover and had gone back up to 5,000, would you have heard positive things about the UK politics and economy? Nope. This was around the time when a Conservative minister was absolutely crucified for talking about "green shoots of recovery". He was of course right and everyone else was wrong, but the market price is determined by everyone else so it was still at 5,000.

You would only have heard positive things about the UK economy from 2013 onwards, when markets had already recovered to pre-crash levels. The vast majority of investors who sold out trying to time the market didn't buy back in until this point, when it was already too late and they had lost money.

Same thing here. You will only hear positive things about India when it is already too late to go back in. This is how markets and market sentiment work.

It can never be a cert. There is a risk doing what I have done but also a big risk just staying in because I would have lost over 10 percent by staying in.

You would have lost absolutely nothing unless you cashed in at a low point, which you did.

I agree with the idea of holding for the long term but if you are quite active and regulary check the prices there is nothing wrong with making adjustments to your portfolio.

The majority of investors who make adjustments to time the market lose money, as you have (so far).

aroominyork

The similarly positioned India Capital Growth IT is down 6.25% this morning. It could be a widening discount but it could also be a sign that Jupiter India investors are in for another dose of reality today.


PS Superb post #35 Malthusian. It's as well as I remember seeing it phrased on this site.

FDa65rdk

FDa65rdk wrote: »

I would but I used up the remainder of my ISA allowance when I invested more in Jupiter India when it was down at 130p and it seemed like a good time to invest.

It's now at 111p :T

That was a week ago. It's now at 101p....

OUCH!!!!!!

Rheumatoid

My best performing investment today :T

ffacoffipawb

Rheumatoid wrote: »

My best performing investment today :T

Presumably it fell by less than everything else?

MY SIPP and ISA are both down 7% this year so far, -10% on capital value and +3% on dividends received.

Considerably worse than the FTSE100 or All Share.

Diversified portfolio of 18 and 29 IT's seems to have compounded my underperformance, but at least it brings me under LTA now in the former and I am 55 next year.

[Deleted User]

Hi,

Rheumatoid wrote: »

My best performing investment today :T

up 2.96% today or 2.9P, now 101.02p


Time to buy?

ffacoffipawb

[Deleted User] wrote:

Hi,






up 2.96% today or 2.9P, now 101.02p


Time to buy?

Not buying anything apart from my employer pension. Not selling anything yet but will need to free up 20-25% of my SIPP TO TAKE MY PCLS next Summer before some scummy government abolishes or taxes it (legality questionable because the pension contract was entered into based on 25% tax free cash and not the renamed by the one eyed Scottish idiot, but still tax free PCLS)