Should first time buyers wait until after Brexit, or rush and buy before 29th March?

AnotherJoe

Akira181 wrote: »

Brexit is going to make the Sterling fall with or without a deal, the question is just by how much. We're never going to get a deal that gives us all the benefits of the EU while simultaneously being free from responsibility. The Tories are trying to have their cake and eat it at the same time.

Whether or not to buy depends on the area I think. Where I stay, house prices have been going up for the last 15 years and the recession only slowed it down marginally. Rent has been going up at an even faster rate so I'm in the process of buying my first place right now. After months of searching, nice flats are being listed and sold in less than a week for top end prices. I saw one that was freshly listed Monday Morning, arranged a viewing for Wednesday afternoon, and when I got there, the EA told me the closing date was Thursday 12pm.

If I stayed somewhere where house prices were over the top and depended on foreign business (i.e. many parts of London I assume), I'd probably hold off and see what happens to the industry. Especially if your job may be affected by the mess that's yet to come.

"the tories" ? All the parties are split (except the libs obviously) and many of the leave voters were labour. Ridiculous to make it seem its a tory plot


And its by no means certain that sterling will fall. An exit of indeterminate type is already priced in, so a "good" brexit would see it rise not fall.

SouthLondonUser

No one can forecast the future. But it's important to at least try to quantify what can happen in a few key scenarios, which is why I made the example with those calculations in the previous post.

For example, if you have a 10% deposit and are considering a 2-year mortgage deal, it is not inconceivable that, in 2 years, you might struggle to remortgage. Let's say that in 2 years the mortgage balance goes from 90 to 85 (ie you have repaid 5). If property prices are 5% down, you're still around the 90% LTV. If property prices are 7% down, you'd be at 85/93 = 91.4%

Again, no one has a crystal ball. I have no idea if prices will be 5% up or 7% down or what. But these are the calculations one should bear in mind, IMHO.

Crashy_Time

Craigzeh wrote: »

Edinburgh doesn't seem to have been hit by the impending doom.

A friend of mine recently bought a flat to let, sold for 30k over valuation and he only just won it, 2 month previous he lost out on one sold for 50k over valuation. 2 weeks seems to be average for them going up to be under offer.

We've decided to jump in and buy now as we feel the time is right for us, no point in stressing about the future as no one knows what will happen. Just have to get on with it.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/aberdeen-and-edinburgh-to-be-hardest-hit-by-brexit-pain-1-4515008


Brexit is an unknown quantity, paying bubble prices is definitely a big gamble now IMO, and when the airbnb bubble bursts Edinburgh flats will also tank in price. It probably won`t burst due to lack of demand, but due to government taxation and regulation IMO, BTL is going the same way.

Crashy_Time

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

No one can forecast the future. But it's important to at least try to quantify what can happen in a few key scenarios, which is why I made the example with those calculations in the previous post.

For example, if you have a 10% deposit and are considering a 2-year mortgage deal, it is not inconceivable that, in 2 years, you might struggle to remortgage. Let's say that in 2 years the mortgage balance goes from 90 to 85 (ie you have repaid 5). If property prices are 5% down, you're still around the 90% LTV. If property prices are 7% down, you'd be at 85/93 = 91.4%

Again, no one has a crystal ball. I have no idea if prices will be 5% up or 7% down or what. But these are the calculations one should bear in mind, IMHO.

With China V The US and Italy V the EU just kicking off I think it is safe to say we are in for some volatility, and again people making simplistic assumptions about interest rates etc. based on what has been happening over the last few years is dangerous for their financial health.

jimbog

How are the house viewings going Crashy?

Davesnave

michelle09 wrote: »

No-one knows what the future will hold, but personally I'd rather be in a place that we own if the economy tanks. Especially as we have two spare rooms to rent out if it comes to it.

The second part of this para makes much more sense than the first.


We own our house because we paid cash for it, but the bank still owns most of yours.


In dodgy economic times, being mobile, without an illiquid asset, could be advantageous for some people, though it looks like you may be safer than many in your line of work.

Crashy_Time

jimbog wrote: »

How are the house viewings going Crashy?

On hold until after the interest rate spike caused by China/US/Italy/Brexit etc. Even the threads here are now reflecting that the old beliefs about property and property prices are not set in stone.

Crashy_Time

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/05/uk-house-prices-fell-sharply-in-september-amid-brexit-wariness


Unfortunately taking it off the market doesn`t preserve value in a market sensitive illiquid asset

Crashy_Time

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/11/brexit-uncertainty-taking-toll-property-market-rics-research


Money savers up and down the land probably praying for a hard Brexit now?

_CC_

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/11/brexit-uncertainty-taking-toll-property-market-rics-research


Money savers up and down the land probably praying for a hard Brexit now?

Depends if they're renting.


If RICS are to be believed:



"It said that with new instructions from landlords down and tenant demand up, rents were likely to rise by about 2% this year and accelerate to 3.5% a year over the next five years, outstripping projected pay rises."


Ouch.