Aberdeen Property Share Fund

mrmusic

Bought into this fund June 2007.(which invests in property shares,not property)
Currently down 26% since then.
Should I hold or sell?
Any signs of the property share fund market improving?

[Deleted User]

sell

its the wrong time, it is more probable it will sink further.

Read my post about gold for ideas (not in gold but in other things) also read in general about the economys and get a feeling for the right sectors.

Global value based is probably a safeish bet.

dunstonh

Like any very high risk fund like this one, there are going to be periods of steep growth and steep losses. A drop of 26% for a fund with this risk profile is not very much and there is certainly potential for as much drop again before recovery.

Should I hold or sell?

Tough one. With interest rates possibly seeing a downward trend, you could see credit crunch, which has hit property share funds hard, ease off and it could allow them to recover. However, there it could be too late and the big property value drop seen in the US could come here and increase your losses.

As it is such a high risk specialist fund, you should only have small exposure to it anyway as part of your specialist holdings within your portfolio. If you rebalance your portfolio periodically, it could make a good hold still over the long term.

There have been better options for some time in the same areas. They are all down as well but this fund has been bottom of its sector for over a year now. (80/81 a year ago, 92/93 6 months ago and 101/101 3 months ago). Premier Pan Euro Property and Schroder Global Prop Securities offered better potential.

purch

I wouldn't buy property in Aberdeen.........it's waaay too cold up there !!! :rotfl:

Do you think Property Shares ( and this fund in particular ) have the potential to rise by 25 to 30% over the next few months ? ( I don't )

If not then this fund is not the place to be

There is no real point in leaving the Investment there just to hope it can regain it's losses over the next year or so

Better to find an investment that has a better chance of recouping some or all of the loss in the shorter term, and go back into this sector when it shows signs of 'life'

dunstonh

Do you think Property Shares have the potential to rise by 25 to 30% over the next few months ? ( I don't )

Anything is possible.

I just pulled up 6 property share funds and 3 are up in the last 3 months and 3 are down. One is up 10% in since 1st Sept.

Its a tough call because it really depends on how long the credit cruch lasts and how big the impact is and have the markets overeacted on property share funds. The rate cut in the US saw them move up around 1-2% and that is after a period of relative stability. Is that perhaps a bottoming out? The property share fund I hold is up 6.29% in the last week (First state asian property sec).

Dont you just love guessing on high risk areas. You cannot predict the unpredictable at the best of times. High risk areas even more so. I fear mrmusic didnt realise the fund was high risk and so much off the boil.

[Deleted User]

Your very optimistic dunston.

Economies are very slow turning beasts I cant even begin to start seeing a recover till at least 2009, if not a lot later.

mrmusic

"As it is such a high risk specialist fund, you should only have small exposure to it anyway as part of your specialist holdings within your portfolio. If you rebalance your portfolio periodically, it could make a good hold still over the long term."

Thanks for your comments.

My holding in this fund is about 3% of my total portfolio so I may hold till turn of the year.

egamar

Yant1 wrote: »

sell

No No No No No!
That's what every private investor does - there's a very informative post with a link to the psychology of investing somewhere else in here, and it's wrong.

It's a hold if you have it and in some months (few or many, I cannot say) a definite buy.

Do a search, it was posted in the last 3 days or so. Thread title something like 'what to do in a falling market'. If I get chance I'll find it and post the link.

purch

Should I hold or sell?

...or the 3rd option.......buy some more

If you think the Fund will recover anytime soon then you must also think the Fund will go up 26% soon also.

On that basis the Fund is a buy :T

In a situation like this Hold and Hope is the weakest option

If an Investment has fallen by 26% then you need to do something

If you think this Fund or Funds like it will recover in 6 months time....get your money out now, do something else with it and buy back in later.

'What to do in a Falling Market ??'............find a rising one and invest there !!!!

[Deleted User]

What to do in a falling market?

Obviously I should have bought 10K of NRK at £10
then 10K at £8
then 10K at £6
then 10K at £4
then 10K at £3
then 10K at £2
then 10k at £1.50

Id be a millionaire if I thought like that.

The contrarian is more intelligent then simply buying something that has fell. Will the property market turn around next year, or the year after, or the year after. Id see flying pigs first.

Im going to bring this post up in 3 years and tell you how much money i have made by investing not in property!

egamar

purch wrote: »

...or the 3rd option.......buy some more

But not yet, IMO. It has further to fall yet, I think. But who's to tell: timing is everything, but you only know when the time was right after the event!

I bought it (or rather its precursor) in July 03 at 44.76. It's been as high as something like 130 and it's 'now' at 89.45.