Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

May’s fudge somewhere in the middle of hard and soft isn’t.

What's been fudged. As no one knows the full deal yet. May's remit is to negotiate with the EU. She can only put forward the agreed compromise to Parliament. Easy to sit and snipe about red lines. Red lines in some way have to give in a trade off.

wunferall

As usual, the UK posts good results & the EU bad so the remainers very quickly change tack to divert attention.

Mutter and grumble all you want but - as with most remainer complaints about Brexit - as usual you are talking about possibilities; predictions.
Premonitions.
When any deal is made public you can try arguing about whether it's good, bad or indifferent.
But the truth is that at the moment we don't know anything factual about a supposed deal.
And we know how wrong our media have been so far with their assumptions.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

The whole idea of the proposed deal is that the withdrawal agreement is extended without any time limit. We will effectively remain in the EU until its eventual collapse but without any say. It's a total betrayal of what the leave vote meant but it will be presented as a success. You can see that the softening up process is already well under way.

That's what we've been saying from the beginning, our o my options have ever been:
Membership
Rules takes
WTO

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Zero.

Better than being in negative territory like Germany.
And THEY aren't trying to leave the EU.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I doubt that he'll be missed as only a junior minister. Why is his single view any more important than ours. After all he is after all just a person.

Junior minister in a relatively senior post and party to all sorts of details we aren't.

It's quite easy to tell how much of a disaster they are expecting it to be by the number of people (pretty much everyone) trying to distance themselves from it.

If anyone thought there was going to be glory to be had they'd be trying to claim credit for it.

wunferall

The euro zone’s biggest economy is expected to report on Wednesday a 0.1 percent quarterly drop in GDP, its first negative reading in well over three years.

“Hardly any measures have been taken in recent years to make Germany a more attractive business location,” it added. “Indeed, the opposite has more often been the case.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-economy/just-a-growth-wobble-or-the-beginning-of-the-end-idUKKCN1NE1UR


What about supposedly-doomed Britain where we're told by remainers that we are already suffering as a result of Brexit?

The economy expanded 0.6 percent in the three months to September

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy/uk-economy-grows-strongly-in-third-quarter-with-hints-of-tougher-times-ahead-idUKKCN1NE0Z9

Poor remainers.
It's getting more and more difficult to present a convincing argument against Brexit.

ess0two

Herzlos wrote: »

Why would it be heartbreaking for remainers? What's heartbreaking is watching our country continue to shoot itself in the foot to placate people who voted for something that was sold to them based on a pile of lies. That no-one seems to want to go on record saying Brexit will be a good thing (I think all of the lead Leave campaigners have admitted it'll be bad), but us ploughing on with it anyway in some futile attempt to keep the Tory party from tearing itself apart.


That one quarters growth figure is better than the Eurozone is neither here nor there - a poor Eurozone still bodes badly for us since they are our largest trading partner.


Brexit is going badly, though we'd love to be proven wrong and have to eat our words in the sunny uplands of a prosperous UK out of the EU, but if even Farage and Banks are saying it was a mistake then, well, who have you got left to cheerlead?

Get over it petal...

wunferall

ukcarper wrote: »

As far as I can see that's the way this thread is progressing any good news is jumped on by leave supporters any bad news is jumped on by remain supporters. To me both sides see things in black and white where in truth it's shades of grey.

I agree with your sentiment but may I correct that for you?

As far as I can see that's the way this thread is progressing; any good factual news is jumped on by leave supporters any prospective bad news is jumped on by remain supporters. To me remainers see predictions as factual where in truth they are often proven wrong.

Moby wrote: »

Very true....there is little common ground.

Sadly this will continue until the need to stop desperately reaching for anything negative regarding Brexit has passed.



Imagine; the year is 2021.
The UK has been free of the EU for two years.
Employment remains at record high levels and wages continue to rise faster than inflation, which remains low.
Productivity is rising and our balance of trade has reduced; exports are up and GDP growth is strong.

Remainer: "Ah but Brexit has cost us billions of pounds a day and soon we will see a deep recession because ........... well, because it's predicted."


Of course, there is a possibility that things do not go so well.
THEN is the time remainers can gloat.
Before that they merely look increasingly desperate to justify their opinion that Brexit is wrong.

wunferall

Since remainers enjoy speculation perhaps they would like to digest this:
"Could the UK out-grow the EU after Brexit?"

There is now a real prospect that come March 29th next year, as we tumble out of the EU, we will be growing faster than the rest of Europe. Indeed, we might be expanding at a respectable rate, while the euro-zone could easily be in a recession, or only a whisker away from it. Sure, the EU tried to predict this week that we will slow down next year. But there is no evidence for that in the statistics. Right now, British growth is picking up while Europe slows down, and the numbers out of Germany point to more trouble ahead.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/could-the-uk-out-grow-the-eu-after-brexit/

Here's the "biggie" - why both the EU and remainers are so desperate.

If the UK does out-perform Europe even as we leave, it will make it very hard for Remainers to argue we have suffered from that decision. And it will encourage euro-sceptics across the rest of Europe, who may start to wonder, if countries grow faster when they get out, what is the EU for exactly?

ruperts

When the day comes that ordinary people can use GDP growth to put food on the table then I'll be interested in it. Until then it's a measure that says very little about people's wellbeing.