US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

neilbond007

funkyfin2000 wrote: »

yeah how long do you think it's going to stay up for!!!!!

i think we have a new master of the double entendres

inspector_monkfish

neilbond007 wrote: »

i think we have a new master of the double entendres

change his name to funkyfinbar :rotfl:

funkyfin2000

neilbond007 wrote: »

i think we have a new master of the double entendres

i thank you

funkyfin2000

hence my surname Saunders

Finbar Saunders from Viz fnarr fnnarrrrrr

inspector_monkfish

drifting a bit lower here at 1.4625

inspector_monkfish

back up to 1.4675

neilbond007

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

back up to 1.4675

So we've got 45 minutes to enjoy this 1.46+
We do have some good news... less windy today... so golf is on

whatusername

Golf is more important Neil, keep the priorities matey.

inspector_monkfish

08:17 24Mar09 (GBP) February inflation data awaited

(GBP) UK Feb inflation data, today (09:30GMT), are expected to reveal targeted
CPI inflation falling perceptibly to 2.6% y/y, from 3.0% in Jan, on the back of
a modest 0.3% m/m increase. RPI inflation should record a negative annual rate
of -0.8% y/y on the back of a 0.2% m/m drop, as the effects of the Jan cut in
interest rates bear down further on mortgage interest payments, and housing
depreciation costs continue to tumble. Outcomes that match our predictions
should be broadly neutral for the market considering the consensus forecasts
are in line with ours. A declining RPI inflation rate in particular should be
seen as placing further downward pressure on the future pace of pay
settlements, which already dipped to 2.6% in the 3mths to Feb, and hence wage
growth.

The inflation statistics should reveal evidence of some price restoration
occurring at retail outlets, marking the end of the New Year price discounting.

So, in particular we expect to see perceptible increases in clothing & footwear
and household goods prices. But generally speaking, the inflation profile
should be subdued by the unwinding of last year's oil and commodity price
spikes. Inflation should also be pushed lower by the effects of weakening
demand that should be restricting the ability of retailers to pass on costs to
cash-constrained households which are rapidly losing their jobs and/or
suffering from heightened job insecurity. The decline in CPI inflation
that we expect to see would mean it is moving closer to its 2% target, after
having overshot it for fifteen months. Interestingly, as the year unfolds and
CPI inflation continues to fall, the likelihood becomes one of BoE Governor
Mervyn King having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why CPI
inflation is undershooting its target by more than 1%!

But as for RPI inflation, which we expect to depict a 0.2% m/m drop, after
a 1.3% m/m fall in Jan, the expected m/m decline reflects the impact of the Jan
50bps cut in interest rates on the mortgage interest payments component of the
RPI. Also the ongoing decline in house prices should continue to drag down the
housing depreciation cost component of the RPI. These two factors alone should
exert a powerful negative influence on the overall RPI, overwhelming the
effects of price restoration.

Although RPI inflation is not targeted, apart from influencing the path of
pay awards, its behaviour also does have far-reaching implications for govt
coupon payments on index-linked Gilts, as well as on welfare payments such as
state pensions, unemployment benefit and income support, for instance. With
regard to govt I-L Gilt coupon payments, a falling RPI would reduce these as
well as the potential inflation uplift on maturing index-linkers. As for the
welfare and benefit payments, as these are also up-rated using the RPI, this
means 2010 will see much more subdued growth in pension, welfare, & benefit
payments (circa 2.5%, as they probably won't fall in tandem with a likely
strongly negative Sep 2009 RPI inflation rate because of downside stickiness),
after the 5% increase to be seen in Apr 2009.

So, look for falling breakeven inflation rates for the time being, as
nominal Gilts outperform their index-linked counterparts, the more so given
that the BoE is buying conventional Gilts and not index-linkers.

neilbond007

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

08:17 24Mar09 (GBP) February inflation data awaited

(GBP) UK Feb inflation data, today (09:30GMT), are expected to reveal targeted
CPI inflation falling perceptibly to 2.6% y/y, from 3.0% in Jan, on the back of
a modest 0.3% m/m increase. RPI inflation should record a negative annual rate
of -0.8% y/y on the back of a 0.2% m/m drop, as the effects of the Jan cut in
interest rates bear down further on mortgage interest payments, and housing
depreciation costs continue to tumble. Outcomes that match our predictions
should be broadly neutral for the market considering the consensus forecasts
are in line with ours. A declining RPI inflation rate in particular should be
seen as placing further downward pressure on the future pace of pay
settlements, which already dipped to 2.6% in the 3mths to Feb, and hence wage
growth.

The inflation statistics should reveal evidence of some price restoration
occurring at retail outlets, marking the end of the New Year price discounting.

So, in particular we expect to see perceptible increases in clothing & footwear
and household goods prices. But generally speaking, the inflation profile
should be subdued by the unwinding of last year's oil and commodity price
spikes. Inflation should also be pushed lower by the effects of weakening
demand that should be restricting the ability of retailers to pass on costs to
cash-constrained households which are rapidly losing their jobs and/or
suffering from heightened job insecurity. The decline in CPI inflation
that we expect to see would mean it is moving closer to its 2% target, after
having overshot it for fifteen months. Interestingly, as the year unfolds and
CPI inflation continues to fall, the likelihood becomes one of BoE Governor
Mervyn King having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why CPI
inflation is undershooting its target by more than 1%!

But as for RPI inflation, which we expect to depict a 0.2% m/m drop, after
a 1.3% m/m fall in Jan, the expected m/m decline reflects the impact of the Jan
50bps cut in interest rates on the mortgage interest payments component of the
RPI. Also the ongoing decline in house prices should continue to drag down the
housing depreciation cost component of the RPI. These two factors alone should
exert a powerful negative influence on the overall RPI, overwhelming the
effects of price restoration.

Although RPI inflation is not targeted, apart from influencing the path of
pay awards, its behaviour also does have far-reaching implications for govt
coupon payments on index-linked Gilts, as well as on welfare payments such as
state pensions, unemployment benefit and income support, for instance. With
regard to govt I-L Gilt coupon payments, a falling RPI would reduce these as
well as the potential inflation uplift on maturing index-linkers. As for the
welfare and benefit payments, as these are also up-rated using the RPI, this
means 2010 will see much more subdued growth in pension, welfare, & benefit
payments (circa 2.5%, as they probably won't fall in tandem with a likely
strongly negative Sep 2009 RPI inflation rate because of downside stickiness),
after the 5% increase to be seen in Apr 2009.

So, look for falling breakeven inflation rates for the time being, as
nominal Gilts outperform their index-linked counterparts, the more so given
that the BoE is buying conventional Gilts and not index-linkers.

jeez... that's far too much for a lazy bugg3r like me to read!
can't you just summarise it for us? or better still draw pictures?