US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

inspector_monkfish

Dow is now down over 3pct or 210pts

cable at 1.3980

inspector_monkfish

16:36 02Mar09 GBP/USD: Even a USD Turn May Not Help Cable Today

[16:36 GBP/USD: Even a USD Turn May Not Help Cable Today] Boston, March 2nd. As much as there"s plenty of USD-related action to keep things interesting, today is about sterling. The GBP is getting hammered against both the EUR and the JPY, which is definitely a break from the recent pattern. Domestic bank issues were cited this morning as the major catalyst, but when U.S. traders got going this morning there was no shift in focus. EUR/GBP has risen an equal amount in NY trading as it did in morning London action.

At this point, it is hard to see the pressure coming off the pound. That
likely could only happen if the USD eases up and that seems unlikely at this
stage. Stocks continue to fall, as do Treasury yields and oil prices. Both of
those things in this environment are USD positives. Bucking the trend, however,
is gold. The metal, which normally does well on these sorts of days, is well in
the red. If that turns back up again it probably will only get worse for
sterling.
Even if things moderate where the fear/safety trade is concerned, it doesn"t
guarantee a break in the pressure on the pound. Cable has broken down
meaningfully through the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from the January
lows to the February highs. That probably means more selling to come, with those January lows being the eventual target. The crosses may help, though. EUR/GBP is near important resistance and GBP/JPY only looks at this point to be pulling back within a wider uptrend.

veggie4life

thank god i got it at 1.49 !!

I know we talk of buying currency but where would ebt he best place to sell dollars? I have around $200 left from my last trip to NY.

junpit

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

16:36 02Mar09 GBP/USD: Even a USD Turn May Not Help Cable Today

[16:36 GBP/USD: Even a USD Turn May Not Help Cable Today] Boston, March 2nd. As much as there"s plenty of USD-related action to keep things interesting, today is about sterling. The GBP is getting hammered against both the EUR and the JPY, which is definitely a break from the recent pattern. Domestic bank issues were cited this morning as the major catalyst, but when U.S. traders got going this morning there was no shift in focus. EUR/GBP has risen an equal amount in NY trading as it did in morning London action.

At this point, it is hard to see the pressure coming off the pound. That
likely could only happen if the USD eases up and that seems unlikely at this
stage. Stocks continue to fall, as do Treasury yields and oil prices. Both of
those things in this environment are USD positives. Bucking the trend, however,
is gold. The metal, which normally does well on these sorts of days, is well in
the red. If that turns back up again it probably will only get worse for
sterling.
Even if things moderate where the fear/safety trade is concerned, it doesn"t
guarantee a break in the pressure on the pound. Cable has broken down
meaningfully through the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from the January
lows to the February highs. That probably means more selling to come, with those January lows being the eventual target. The crosses may help, though. EUR/GBP is near important resistance and GBP/JPY only looks at this point to be pulling back within a wider uptrend.

Don't you think your projections for end March might be a little off based on your comments.

BTW please keep your posting up. It makes interesting reading and is much appreciated. I'm off to the USA in May and hence am playing a waiting game. I just hope it doesn't all go sideways for me.

yozzer2006

Recovered a bit this morning....$1.4119

inspector_monkfish

Tin hats on today chaps - could be choppy out there!!

Just for your guide, USD was performing well against pretty much every currency yesterday, not just GBP.

A whole heap of currencies were at their lowest levels against USD for many years. Its all to do with this 'flight to quality' in times of trouble nonsense. Stock markets crashing again, NO-ONE wants to own any stock in anything at the moment (can't blame them) so they all want to keep the cash, and USD is the currency of choice right now i'm afraid.

Cable currently trading at 1.4090.

jonathanrichardson69

veggie4life wrote: »

thank god i got it at 1.49 !!

I know we talk of buying currency but where would ebt he best place to sell dollars? I have around $200 left from my last trip to NY.

how much do you want for them?

inspector_monkfish

junpit wrote: »

Don't you think your projections for end March might be a little off based on your comments.

BTW please keep your posting up. It makes interesting reading and is much appreciated. I'm off to the USA in May and hence am playing a waiting game. I just hope it doesn't all go sideways for me.

Well not really. I'd still like to think we can rally back up to 1.50 by end of March. Trouble is, markets don't play by the same rules anymore - actually i don't think there are any rules anymore!!

Trouble is, no-one saw yesterdays global stock market collapse coming in quite the way it did, which triggered the strength in USD currency.

Just goes to show how fickle and difficult to predict these markets really are.

In the good old days, which would only have been about a year ago, any trouble in the US would have seen the Pound strengthen. Yesterday, we saw bad news in the US, which pretty much affects the whole world, and the USD actually strengthened!


Great fun isn't it !!

inspector_monkfish

07:45 03Mar09 GBP/USD: Retreats Through 1.4100, Darling Flags Up UK QE

[07:45 GBP/USD: Retreats Through 1.4100, Darling Flags Up UK QE] London, March 3. Cable has retreated from a late Asian session intra-day high of 1.4141 to a low of 1.4068 since the European open, as the continent absorbs the content of a Daily Telegraph interview with Alistair Darling. On the subject of this week"s BoE MPC meeting and "Quantitative Easing", the UK Chancellor says that "we"ve given them (the MPC) the levers (re: QE). They may decide this month that it"s appropriate to do so". The MPC is also expected to cut Bank Rate by 50bp to a new record low of 0.5% this week (Thursday).

The Darling interview helped depress GBP/USD to today"s 1.3990 Asian session base. It was helped off that low by Japanese pension fund demand for currencies including GBP. 1.3958 was yesterday"s five-week low, plumbed just before 17:00GMT as the USD caught a safe-haven bid on the back of equity price weakness. The Dow closed down 4.24% at a new 12-year low of 6,763 yesterday. Dow futures are currently up 67 points. The Nikkei closed down 0.7% at 7,229 today, having been down as low as 7,088 during the Tokyo morning.
"Lack of Bank policy details fuels concern" is the headline of an article in
today"s FT re: UK QE.

UK manufacturers cut jobs and output by a record amount last month, according to February"s UK manufacturing sector PMI. Nevertheless, Britain"s manufacturing industry has fared less badly than that in comparable countries during the downturn, according to FT analysis. February"s UK construction sector PMI will be disclosed at 09:30GMT today.

inspector_monkfish

junpit wrote: »

Don't you think your projections for end March might be a little off based on your comments.

BTW please keep your posting up. It makes interesting reading and is much appreciated. I'm off to the USA in May and hence am playing a waiting game. I just hope it doesn't all go sideways for me.

by the way, sideways is better than downwards !!