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A crashtroll's progress, 1996-2018
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westernpromise
Posts: 4,833 Forumite
I've posted previously about my favourite ever crash troll, M Holmes (aka "FoFP") of Usenet. Back in 1996, seven years after a house price crash and just ahead of a 10-year bull run, this chap was predicting a further imminent crash:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/uk.finance/ziECfUDSCFM/K4wuspagd6kJ
"...lack of demand indicates that housing is still regarded as overpriced. That indicates further falls rather than a rise. Demographics also mitigate against future house price rises. There are simply less young people to buy houses. Added to this are factors like housing probably having reached a peak in terms of the percentage of the Uk population who actually want to be homeowners. Then there's the trend towards people starting families later. The odds are that there will be further real falls in house prices."
He used to bang on about how it was all a credit bubble and cite his knowledge of Kondratieff waves in a lordly de haut en bas way. It comes as no surprise to discover that he rocked up here and at HPC, still spouting the same guff, in 2007:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/1793365/the-best-post-i-read-before-the-crash&highlight=fofp
The same thing was posted to each place and to this day receives reverent homage from crash trolls:
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/53593-credit-bubble-bursts-first-snows-of-k-winter/&page=14
I find this chap an interesting example: how can you be so wrong for so long but still, woefully and disastrously, convince yourself and others, with personally calamitous consequences? The answer I think is that this sort of David Icke figure always makes some small but disastrous mistake that few people in his amen chorus notice. His was to cite all the usual crashtroll memes - yes, tulips are in there - and to assume that houses are just a token, hence sure to crash as tulips did.
The trouble with this of course is that all his "tokens" had no actual utility. You can't live in or eat a tulip, but you can live in a house.
From there he goes on to make classic crashtroll errors out of the crashtroll playbook. Apparently everyone buys a house with a 10% deposit and 90% debt, so everyone's in huge debt. Well, no. The average homeowner has 45% equity, uses their home to live in, and only cares what it's worth every 22 years.
There's also the typical crashtroll's avaricious greed dressed up a solicitous concern for the wider good of society:
"some people with current mortgages will be in debt for the rest of their natural, but more and more they'll find that their neighbours won't. It will be a far healthier society."
Yes, he'd have enjoyed getting a really cheap house, as part of a healthier society. Oh dear!
I wonder if he's still married? Like Crashy he's spent an entire mortgage term renting and hoping to buy a cheap house. Even if he got one now, it could never be cheap enough.
The lesson is, I guess, that you should never mistake yourself for a financial genius.
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/uk.finance/ziECfUDSCFM/K4wuspagd6kJ
"...lack of demand indicates that housing is still regarded as overpriced. That indicates further falls rather than a rise. Demographics also mitigate against future house price rises. There are simply less young people to buy houses. Added to this are factors like housing probably having reached a peak in terms of the percentage of the Uk population who actually want to be homeowners. Then there's the trend towards people starting families later. The odds are that there will be further real falls in house prices."
He used to bang on about how it was all a credit bubble and cite his knowledge of Kondratieff waves in a lordly de haut en bas way. It comes as no surprise to discover that he rocked up here and at HPC, still spouting the same guff, in 2007:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/1793365/the-best-post-i-read-before-the-crash&highlight=fofp
The same thing was posted to each place and to this day receives reverent homage from crash trolls:
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/53593-credit-bubble-bursts-first-snows-of-k-winter/&page=14
I find this chap an interesting example: how can you be so wrong for so long but still, woefully and disastrously, convince yourself and others, with personally calamitous consequences? The answer I think is that this sort of David Icke figure always makes some small but disastrous mistake that few people in his amen chorus notice. His was to cite all the usual crashtroll memes - yes, tulips are in there - and to assume that houses are just a token, hence sure to crash as tulips did.
The trouble with this of course is that all his "tokens" had no actual utility. You can't live in or eat a tulip, but you can live in a house.
From there he goes on to make classic crashtroll errors out of the crashtroll playbook. Apparently everyone buys a house with a 10% deposit and 90% debt, so everyone's in huge debt. Well, no. The average homeowner has 45% equity, uses their home to live in, and only cares what it's worth every 22 years.
There's also the typical crashtroll's avaricious greed dressed up a solicitous concern for the wider good of society:
"some people with current mortgages will be in debt for the rest of their natural, but more and more they'll find that their neighbours won't. It will be a far healthier society."
Yes, he'd have enjoyed getting a really cheap house, as part of a healthier society. Oh dear!
I wonder if he's still married? Like Crashy he's spent an entire mortgage term renting and hoping to buy a cheap house. Even if he got one now, it could never be cheap enough.
The lesson is, I guess, that you should never mistake yourself for a financial genius.
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Comments
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Nice find.0
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Ohhhhhhh-K
Think I'll press the back button and make an exit0 -
Why do you even have a "favourite ever crash troll"???Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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You have to have a favourite ever crash troll because they have been predicting the financial apocalypse for good honest hard working families for over 20 years now.0
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My own favourite crash troll has to be brit1234, who is still standing by his Spring 2009 prediction of a 50% price drop by Christmas.
The observant amongst you will recall at Spring 2009 was the inflexion point following the 2007-8 house price crash. House prices in many parts of the south east have more than doubled since that time.0 -
Brit1234 has to be a troll. How could someone be so incorrect for such a period.0
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HPC_Ghuol_Hunter wrote: »Brit1234 has to be a troll. How could someone be so incorrect for such a period.
He has been very quiet in recent times, which suggests to me that he has grown a spine and finally bought.
This worries me... I may need to sell up everything immediately0 -
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I think my favourite crash troll would have to include TheCountOfNowhere. The way that he posts from his Hull bedsit always getting his panties in a twist over the latest stats always rises a chuckle in me.
Another sadly missed crash troll would be Bruno. I!!!8217;ve not looked at golf umbrellas the same since.0 -
My favourite crash troll was geneer.
When his BCR became untenable, he invented a time machine and went back in time to buy at the bottom of the market. Legend.Don't blame me, I voted Remain.0
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