Btl tax

shirlgirl2004

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Economic cycles have been interrupted by central banks, making the potential downside far greater than it needed to be when rates eventually dismiss all the QE and other tricks and rise anyway.

No they haven't the banks are part of the cycle. Do you really think there wouldn't have been a crash but for the banks?

QE is part of the solution.

Crashy_Time

shirlgirl2004 wrote: »

No they haven't the banks are part of the cycle. Do you really think there wouldn't have been a crash but for the banks?

QE is part of the solution.

QE doesn`t really work, not long term anyway, hence the moves now by the US, and noises from Germany and others that rates need to rise. Your last sentence is a strange one to direct at me, wind-up perhaps? Yes, the banks have made themselves the main part of the cycle this time, but it is an experiment, never tried on this scale before, and there is a lot of downside if they lose control (some commentators say they already have)

shirlgirl2004

Crashy_Time wrote: »

QE doesn`t really work, not long term anyway, hence the moves now by the US, and noises from Germany and others that rates need to rise. Your last sentence is a strange one to direct at me, wind-up perhaps? Yes, the banks have made themselves the main part of the cycle this time, but it is an experiment, never tried on this scale before, and there is a lot of downside if they lose control (some commentators say they already have)

We'll have to agree to differ on that one, QE has done its job since 2007. Not sure I follow your argument with the banks but on the basis of probability I won't agree with it. :rotfl:

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

A simpler way to look at it IMO is that a housing bubble propped up mainly by record low interest rates, in a country with very high levels of household debt, can`t really survive very many increases in base rate. Many areas of the country are at price levels many times the average wage for the area, so IMO there is no way that wage rises will ride to the rescue.

And that's where your logic falls over, you are trying to over simplify something that is not simple.... Rates were higher than the average before 2008, what percentage of landlords bought since 2008? and of those how many have a mortgage, and of those how many are so leveraged that they will be in trouble.... I think you are over speculating that this group is much bigger than it really is...

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

And that's where your logic falls over, you are trying to over simplify something that is not simple.... Rates were higher than the average before 2008, what percentage of landlords bought since 2008? and of those how many have a mortgage, and of those how many are so leveraged that they will be in trouble.... I think you are over speculating that this group is much bigger than it really is...

So you are saying that the housing market is healthy enough to withstand interest rate hikes? It isn`t healthy WITH emergency rates, how could it not react to higher rates?

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you are saying that the housing market is healthy enough to withstand interest rate hikes? It isn`t healthy WITH emergency rates, how could it not react to higher rates?

The only people effected would be those buying since "emergency" rates, others have just had a temporary reduction on their mortgage payments. Most of those mortgages taken out since "emergency" rates have been stress tested to make sure borrowers CAN afford the mortgages IF rates increase...

10yrs ago when rates were dropped to 0.5% who thought they would last as long as they have? Who is to say they will not stay this low for another 10yrs? Im not saying they will but I would not expect a big rise any time soon....

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

The only people effected would be those buying since "emergency" rates, others have just had a temporary reduction on their mortgage payments. Most of those mortgages taken out since "emergency" rates have been stress tested to make sure borrowers CAN afford the mortgages IF rates increase...

10yrs ago when rates were dropped to 0.5% who thought they would last as long as they have? Who is to say they will not stay this low for another 10yrs? Im not saying they will but I would not expect a big rise any time soon....

Yep, and the result is less and less people can find a buyer at the price they want. You can`t have bubble prices AND more cautious banks, it just doesn`t work like that

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yep, and the result is less and less people can find a buyer at the price they want. You can`t have bubble prices AND more cautious banks, it just doesn`t work like that

You could have said the same 8 yrs ago.... Whats happened since then?? I really do feel sorry for you that you made a poor life choice and have resorted to trolling this forum.

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

You could have said the same 8 yrs ago.... Whats happened since then?? I really do feel sorry for you that you made a poor life choice and have resorted to trolling this forum.

You troll every post I post, what does that say about your choices
:rotfl:Are you saying there were less people buying 8 years ago than now?

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You troll every post I post, what does that say about your choices
:rotfl:Are you saying there were less people buying 8 years ago than now?

So im trolling a troll.... A Troll hunter if you like... :rotfl:

8 years ago they were talking about sales volumes being low, it made little difference...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15837414

And as for your massive drop in sales....

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/stamp-duty-receipts-up-by-almost-12-in-a-year-despite-drop-in-transactions/

Ill highlight your huge drop for you.....

The number of property transactions in the UK has declined, with 0.33% or 4,010 fewer transactions taking place in the last 12 months

Think your hyping up the fall in sales somewhat, especially when you consider the extra tax on BTL im surprised its not a bigger decline.