Btl tax

Crashy_Time

00ec25 wrote: »

not in the slightest,

cash in bank account ^,
property in Surrey ^,
let property generates sufficient to be useful pension top up.
Kids eyeing up their inheritance :mad:

Nobody was predicting a property crash in 1997 though?

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Nobody was predicting a property crash in 1997 though?

Nobody ever predicts a crash because anyone that says they can is a fraudster... I bet if the property market crashed tomorrow you would be on here saying how right you were, ignoring the fact you have been saying the same thing for years...

Property prices have trends, we had a correction after the crash, prices have in most places not increased in real terms since then so you could argue a crash is less likely, however prices as a multiple of income is high so you could argue a crash is more likely....

There are factors that indicate a crash is due, but other factors that indicate a crash is not due.... If you wait for a crash and time it perfectly it could put you in a great position, however if you wait and it does not come then you could end up spending a fortune in rent and see prices increasing to a point that locks you out of the market and you get bitter and frustrated and come on a forum hijack almost every thread to try and somehow generate a crash...

Have a quick look at Housepricecrash.co.uk, for the last 15yrs+ various people just like Crashy have been saying a crash is imminent, some have bet big, even selling expecting a crash, ive not seen anyone that has made money doing that tactic.

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Nobody ever predicts a crash because anyone that says they can is a fraudster... I bet if the property market crashed tomorrow you would be on here saying how right you were, ignoring the fact you have been saying the same thing for years...

Property prices have trends, we had a correction after the crash, prices have in most places not increased in real terms since then so you could argue a crash is less likely, however prices as a multiple of income is high so you could argue a crash is more likely....

There are factors that indicate a crash is due, but other factors that indicate a crash is not due.... If you wait for a crash and time it perfectly it could put you in a great position, however if you wait and it does not come then you could end up spending a fortune in rent and see prices increasing to a point that locks you out of the market and you get bitter and frustrated and come on a forum hijack almost every thread to try and somehow generate a crash...

Have a quick look at Housepricecrash.co.uk, for the last 15yrs+ various people just like Crashy have been saying a crash is imminent, some have bet big, even selling expecting a crash, ive not seen anyone that has made money doing that tactic.

What are some of these factors in your opinion?

00ec25

Crashy_Time wrote: »

What are some of these factors in your opinion?

give it a rest Crashy. Your posts are occasionally amusing, but most of the time you are just a stuck record player

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

What are some of these factors in your opinion?

There are so many and any one could have an effect on house prices...

-Supply
-Demand
-Taxes
-Interest rates
-Wages
-Inheritance
-Government policies
-Council policies
-Job security
-population
-currency rates
-Building supplies costs/availability
-Workforce costs
-Building regulations
-House prices
-Where houses are built
-unemployment
-average wage
-disposable income
-inflation

There are probably even more that have a smaller knock on effect, any one can have an effect on house prices, for a crash you need a number of ducks in a row to have enough of a cumulative effect to cause a domino effect... Plus it also depends what you call a crash, it may not come in the form of price decreases, at the moment prices are historically high, however if we have no or very little house price increase or even a small drop in prices over the next 10 years and say have a fairly healthy inflation rate and wage increase then a crash in the sense of the house prices reducing will not happen.... If rates rise and say unemployment rises then an imminent crash would be likely.

Crashy_Time

00ec25 wrote: »

give it a rest Crashy. Your posts are occasionally amusing, but most of the time you are just a stuck record player

You do acknowledge that no one was talking about a crash in 1997 though don`t you? Will you take that record off the turntable now?

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

There are so many and any one could have an effect on house prices...

-Supply
-Demand
-Taxes
-Interest rates
-Wages
-Inheritance
-Government policies
-Council policies
-Job security
-population
-currency rates
-Building supplies costs/availability
-Workforce costs
-Building regulations
-House prices
-Where houses are built
-unemployment
-average wage
-disposable income
-inflation

There are probably even more that have a smaller knock on effect, any one can have an effect on house prices, for a crash you need a number of ducks in a row to have enough of a cumulative effect to cause a domino effect... Plus it also depends what you call a crash, it may not come in the form of price decreases, at the moment prices are historically high, however if we have no or very little house price increase or even a small drop in prices over the next 10 years and say have a fairly healthy inflation rate and wage increase then a crash in the sense of the house prices reducing will not happen.... If rates rise and say unemployment rises then an imminent crash would be likely.

A simpler way to look at it IMO is that a housing bubble propped up mainly by record low interest rates, in a country with very high levels of household debt, can`t really survive very many increases in base rate. Many areas of the country are at price levels many times the average wage for the area, so IMO there is no way that wage rises will ride to the rescue.

Freecall

buggy_boy wrote: »

Nobody ever predicts a crash....

I do.

In fact I guarantee it.

Timing, is the only real question of substance.

shirlgirl2004

Freecall wrote: »

I do.

In fact I guarantee it.

Timing, is the only real question of substance.

Indeed there are lots of indicators and we know the property cycle is approximately 18 years and we expect to see a dip before a period of rapid growth. London is in that dip now, other areas of the country have only just started the initial growth. Not every area of the country is in the same part of the cycle therefore the crash will not affect all areas at the same time. It's all interesting stuff if people want to educate themselves.

Crashy_Time

shirlgirl2004 wrote: »

Indeed there are lots of indicators and we know the property cycle is approximately 18 years and we expect to see a dip before a period of rapid growth. London is in that dip now, other areas of the country have only just started the initial growth. Not every area of the country is in the same part of the cycle therefore the crash will not affect all areas at the same time. It's all interesting stuff if people want to educate themselves.

Economic cycles have been interrupted by central banks, making the potential downside far greater than it needed to be when rates eventually dismiss all the QE and other tricks and rise anyway.