Something fishy

Crashy_Time

bobbymotors wrote: »

Good old crashy.

Still deluded.
Still predicting an imminent crash
Still trawling the net for the slightest evidence

Still renting too....

Lets face it, you don`t have to trawl far these days :rotfl:


http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-stocks-most-at-risk-from-rising-interest-rates-2018-3?r=US&IR=T/#11-freenet-1


Just swop "Firms" for "UK Households" and you get the picture I think......I reckon a fair few of the Price Police on here will be crying in their soup when rates actually do rise

AnotherJoe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Too complicated. Near zero rates were needed to keep the property market afloat, moving away from those rate levels sinks the market, it isn`t that difficult to suss out.

So you've merely added another set of evidence-fitting.
Interest rates being lowered = crash imminent this is the only thing that will stop it.
Interest rates being raised = crash imminent nothing will stop it.

Is there in fact any event that would cause you to believe a crash is not imminent?

Crashy_Time

AnotherJoe wrote: »

So you've merely added another set of evidence-fitting.
Interest rates being lowered = crash imminent this is the only thing that will stop it.
Interest rates being raised = crash imminent nothing will stop it.

Is there in fact any event that would cause you to believe a crash is not imminent?

The membership of the discussion forum doubling to 12 over-leveraged landlords?

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The membership of the discussion forum doubling to 12 over-leveraged landlords?

Agh yes the old anyone disagreeing with you is an over-leveraged landlord... Well yes im a landlord, but only have 15% LTV, so hardly over-leveraged. So come on you still wont say how much rent have you paid in your life, what was the price of houses when you started rented... You must need a crash so big that people give you money to take their property just for you to break even... The irony of you trying to give advice of not buying where if you had ignored your advice years ago you would be so much better off I guess is lost on you.

Crashy_Time

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens


The problem with bubbles is buying at the wrong time though, the bigger the price the bigger the risk you take

AnotherJoe

Though there is a risk not buying also, its not a one way thing, theres a risk whatever you do.
You must be well aware of the risk of not buying.
How much would someone have to pay you to take their house to negate the effect of your choice 20 years ago?

The sad thing is, its one thing to make a bad bet, anyone can do that, I"ve made a few.

But usually people who make a bad bet say "dont do what i did..." whereas you are continually saying "do what i did" presumably to validate your bad choice 20 years ago.

Its like speaking to a homeless drunk who recommends you nip into Tesco's and buy both of you a bottle of Johnny Walker each.

Crashy_Time

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Though there is a risk not buying also, its not a one way thing, theres a risk whatever you do.
You must be well aware of the risk of not buying.
How much would someone have to pay you to take their house to negate the effect of your choice 20 years ago?

The sad thing is, its one thing to make a bad bet, anyone can do that, I"ve made a few.

But usually people who make a bad bet say "dont do what i did..." whereas you are continually saying "do what i did" presumably to validate your bad choice 20 years ago.

Its like speaking to a homeless drunk who recommends you nip into Tesco's and buy both of you a bottle of Johnny Walker each.

Fantasy. You assume a world where people just buy a home and stay put for the rest of their lives, or "just rent it out" if they need to move for work etc. If you can`t find a buyer/tenant or the government decides your rental income is a good tax target the model breaks down and you are basically stuck with an albatross around your neck, and that load gets heavier as rates rise and prices drop.


Rent is just a cost, and the key to feeling economically secure IMO is to work out your yearly costs, and aim to have many years worth of this cost saved/invested somewhere relatively safe. Of course you can do this while paying a mortgage but I believe the stats will show that most don`t, and instead just rely on their house ( a very illiquid asset at the mercy of credit conditions/rates and sentiment) being worth X amount at some vague point in the future, and of course being no problem to sell.
(Well they did, I believe many have now woken up to the fact that we had a property bubble and that they won`t be able to cash out at a price they like)

Ozzuk

You nailed it Crashy, rent is just a cost, you are paying off someone's asset. With a mortgage you will own an asset at some point.

Dress it anyway you like, with any number of articles, yes there are benefits to renting, as a financial decision, no.

I'd also agree with your statement than most people won't save with a mortgage, but that is equally true for renters.

You won't find a single case where renting benefits you in retirement over a mortgage - and if by some chance you do there are millions of examples where it doesn't.

Crashy_Time

Ozzuk wrote: »

You nailed it Crashy, rent is just a cost, you are paying off someone's asset. With a mortgage you will own an asset at some point.

Dress it anyway you like, with any number of articles, yes there are benefits to renting, as a financial decision, no.

I'd also agree with your statement than most people won't save with a mortgage, but that is equally true for renters.

You won't find a single case where renting benefits you in retirement over a mortgage - and if by some chance you do there are millions of examples where it doesn't.

If you still have a number of years to go on the mortgage, or if you planned to sell to fund your retirement, it is going to be a bumpy ride, buckle up The funniest thing is that the MSM now spouts on a daily basis the sort of stuff only found on a certain website you guys love to hate only a few years ago

brentcloning

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Lets face it, you don`t have to trawl far these days :rotfl:

*Link removed*



Just swop "Firms" for "UK Households" and you get the picture I think......I reckon a fair few of the Price Police on here will be crying in their soup when rates actually do rise

I do enjoy that you only ever post to tabloid articles, no actual papers. Do you just Google "House price crash" and copy and paste the links that you find?