Something fishy

Crashy_Time

Gwendo40 wrote: »

No confusion at all here from me with regards to the point that I was making, it's quite simple if you take the emotion out of it.

There is no difference between those wanting a fall in house prices despite the misery it may cause some home owners... and those wanting house prices to remain propped up at artificially high levels despite the misery it may cause some none home owners.

As long as top bankers don`t feel any misery the job`s a good `un
A good crash might wake some of the population up to the evils of our debt based monetary system though

Crashy_Time

AnotherJoe wrote: »

You have confused people stating what the situation is with them wanting a situation to be like that.

Pretending (to yourself, or others on the internet, or actually believing) that house prices are where they are due to actual Supply and Demand is still pretty silly though?

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Pretending (to yourself, or others on the internet, or actually believing) that house prices are where they are due to actual Supply and Demand is still pretty silly though?

I dont think many people would disagree that house prices have been effected by credit, you will argue about low interest rates (Which is not wrong) but then you will forget the lending has got a lot more stringent so less people can get the amount of mortgage needed, that should have reduced prices but you ignore this...

If you think we have built enough houses over the last 20 years then that is pretty silly... The housing market is complex and is effected by so much, for a long time BTL investors were blamed for high house prices, yet since the tax changes they have mostly disappeared, yet prices have not crashed...

Out of interest Crashy when do you think this crash will happen as looking at your posts for the last 4 years its always happening now... Do you think we are in a crash, we had a crash 4 years ago or will have a crash next week?

shortcrust

Did anyone else expect this thread to be about prawns hidden under the floor boards?

Mickygg

shortcrust wrote: »

Did anyone else expect this thread to be about prawns hidden under the floor boards?

No but I expected fool crashy to hijack it and spout utter rubbish.

Crashy_Time

Mickygg wrote: »

No but I expected fool crashy to hijack it and spout utter rubbish.

Ignore function broken down again has it?

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

I dont think many people would disagree that house prices have been effected by credit, you will argue about low interest rates (Which is not wrong) but then you will forget the lending has got a lot more stringent so less people can get the amount of mortgage needed, that should have reduced prices but you ignore this...

If you think we have built enough houses over the last 20 years then that is pretty silly... The housing market is complex and is effected by so much, for a long time BTL investors were blamed for high house prices, yet since the tax changes they have mostly disappeared, yet prices have not crashed...

Out of interest Crashy when do you think this crash will happen as looking at your posts for the last 4 years its always happening now... Do you think we are in a crash, we had a crash 4 years ago or will have a crash next week?

No, with record low interest rates all this does is reduce sales, people will cling to their price delusions until rising interest rates indicate to them clearly that the boat has sailed.

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, with record low interest rates all this does is reduce sales, people will cling to their price delusions until rising interest rates indicate to them clearly that the boat has sailed.

Your logic makes no sense. Record low interest rates you would think would do the opposite, people could borrow more so would sell to move up unless they were worried about their jobs (Im not sure what the current sentiment is regarding job security). The only way rising interest rates will change peoples minds is if they are forced to sell, but that is a way off (And likely need to include job losses)..

Don't forget we have Brexit coming up, given the banks propensity to lower interest rates when the economic outlook is low, IMO I think rates will rise a percentage point or two, but then be dropped at the the various stages of Brexit (aka 2019 when we go into transition and then 2021 when we actually leave). Just look at what happened when we voted to exit, the bank reduced rates in a knee jerk reaction, the only rise we have had is to correct that reduction. What makes you believe rates are going to rise so fast? Carney and media have been reporting imminent rate rises for years now, they are like the boy who cried wolf. (Although you should not think rates will not rise as that is dangerous).

AnotherJoe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, with record low interest rates all this does is reduce sales, people will cling to their price delusions until rising interest rates indicate to them clearly that the boat has sailed.

LOL.
Previously you've stated that record low interest rates are propping up house prices and create a bubble.
Now you say record low interest rates reduce sales !

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Your logic makes no sense. Record low interest rates you would think would do the opposite, people could borrow more so would sell to move up unless they were worried about their jobs (Im not sure what the current sentiment is regarding job security). The only way rising interest rates will change peoples minds is if they are forced to sell, but that is a way off (And likely need to include job losses)..

Don't forget we have Brexit coming up, given the banks propensity to lower interest rates when the economic outlook is low, IMO I think rates will rise a percentage point or two, but then be dropped at the the various stages of Brexit (aka 2019 when we go into transition and then 2021 when we actually leave). Just look at what happened when we voted to exit, the bank reduced rates in a knee jerk reaction, the only rise we have had is to correct that reduction. What makes you believe rates are going to rise so fast? Carney and media have been reporting imminent rate rises for years now, they are like the boy who cried wolf. (Although you should not think rates will not rise as that is dangerous).

US is not basing it`s rate hikes on concerns about Brexit, Carney and Co. can say/do what they like but they won`t be lowering when the US is raising. You contradict yourself, record low rates are not helping people buy more, because as you say lending is being constrained, hence less sales but people not being in enough difficulty with their mortgage (or more likely 2nd mortgage) to cause forced sales.