House Price Crash Discussion Thread

mystic_trev

simon_w wrote: »

I think it is important to know what type of property you want to buy. Flats are going through a 'correction' with many already 25% lower than spring 07. Other property types where there is still good demand will and are holding their own. There are generally very few properties on the market at the moment in most parts of the UK. New instructions are very very short in supply and my offices have just noticed a pick-up so it could change.

Have you seen any increase in FTB's ?

WTF?_2

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/40205/how-britains-10-year-boom-is-turning-into-browns-bust.html

Anyone who thinks that all is rosy in the market and it's a good time to borrow hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy property now, should read this. It's a pretty good summation of all that's went wrong in the economy in the so-called 'boom years'.

simon_w_3

A few more FTB's looking, but not yet buying. Most of the interest we have had since New Year is coming from people thinking now is the time to get out of rented accom and into ownership. We are also up sharply on new instructions ( fresh properties on the market ) as opposed to old ones moving from one agent to another,but still advertised as New Instructions.

KITCHEN1_2

"sharply up on new instructions"

and how are you pricing ? Up,down ,or static relative to last years sales ? In other words what is the trend ?

how have your 'time to sell' stats changed at all over the last 12 months and how do those stats loo across top,middle and low price groups ?

KITCHEN1_2

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/80bedc12-be3f-11dc-8bc9-0000779fd2ac.html

If there is any substance to this and the other surveys mentioned then it would appear we have some long term investors (not speccies/flippers) standing ready to mop up forced sellers.If so ,this denotes sticky/stagnant broad market.

On the downside ,I am wary of surveys carried out by groups that have a vested interest in the outcome of said survey.

On the upside if the headlines today regarding public sector pay demands are any arbinger of the future then you certainly want your money long term in an asset that is basically tied to inflation and property qualifies regardless of the bumps along the way.

HammersFan

I agree that the ARLA survey is a vested interest one, but I think a lot of people on this board over-estimate the number of landlords who are in it for a quick buck or too heavily geared. These BTL'ers are probably confined to city-centre new-builds. There is a lot of BTL stock that is good quality housing that people will want to buy or rent at good prices. For most there is no reason to sell as they see it as a long-term thing (15-20 years for many). Over such a period of time, prudent gearing is likely to really pay off. I would argue that whatever FTBs decide to do they wouldn't be wise to pin their hopes on a crash bought about by BTL landlords dumping good quality property.

KITCHEN1_2

Hammers,
I am inclined to agree with you and have been suggesting much the same myself.
If there is a love of precious metal right now and if that is related to investors views on how tangibles stack up against paper inflation then the same can be said to apply to property once the froth get's blown off.

BettiePage

It's ok people, panic over! :rolleyes:

hitman_uk

please correct me if im wrong but the express headline is quoting an annual figure. So my understanding is if i bought a house this time last year it will be worth 5.2% more now. If this is the case the headline is clearly misleading people. If you bought a house in september you would be 5.2% up. You would quite possibly be in negaive equtity.
The only indicator ive seen that is showin up is halifax which some people believe to be asking prices and not selling prices.

hgllgh

is the express saying that is annual % increase? Whoopee :rolleyes:
I wonder if the owner of the Express has investments based on property?