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Debate House Prices
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House Price Crash Discussion Thread
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please correct me if im wrong but the express headline is quoting an annual figure. So my understanding is if i bought a house this time last year it will be worth 5.2% more now. If this is the case the headline is clearly misleading people. If you bought a house in september you would be 5.2% up. You would quite possibly be in negaive equtity.
The only indicator ive seen that is showin up is halifax which some people believe to be asking prices and not selling prices.
The Express is quoting the Halifax House Price Index which is based on purchase values on properties where the Halifax is the lender, not asking prices. It's seasonally adjusted (not that it makes a difference for YoY figures) and adjusted to take account of the different types of properties that sell in a period so a change in the mix of properties sold in a period shouldn't make a difference. It is in nominal terms so that makes a real rise (ie after inflation) of about 1%.
The Rightmove figures are based on asking prices.0 -
More signs of a slowdown:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7178459.stm
"The economy appears to be well and truly slowing, it's not just sentiment and expectation."
Seems like there is something in the news every day about a slowdown. The Halifax result might buck the trend, but it does look like recession is on the way...Andy
The older I get, the better I was...0 -
BettiePage wrote: »It's ok people, panic over! :rolleyes:
I know. Isn't it wonderful? The "national" newspaper owned by a sleazy pornographer and published from a shed on Mars. Of course, it's one of just four front pages the Direly Expired has on stock, viz:
1) DIANA: Prince Philip did it!
2) MADDY: Prince Philip did it? Everyone asks.
3) HOUSE PRICES: Prince Philip doesn't care!
and
4) THE WEATHER: Floods Will Wipe Out Buckingham Palace But Not Harrod's
Basically, where the Direly Expired is concerned, the facts are always the opposite of its front page exclusives -- an excellent social service for all those who, like me, don't buy a daily paper but take a quick look at the page 1 stories of those stacked up at the local supermarket.
So in this case: YES!! :j
House prices are indeed down by at least 5.2%.0 -
ignore pickledpink, neverdespairgirl
it's just an annoying troll who has nothing to value to say
strange that the last troll disappeared at the same time this one appeared.
Oi, m00m00. Don't be unkind.
There's a real tragedy here in that newbie pickledpink began posting on December 26th and so has missed the supportive contributions, and exclamation marks, from newbie abadan who ceased posting on December 4th.
The two of 'em ought to get together. If they haven't done so by now.0 -
Iv already got thread going because i wanted some adivse on investment, its called Buy To Let, Worth The Risk?. I was just wondering what is actually going happen most of the people are saying there a price fall coming, others are saying there is't but my question is would it be worth investing into a property in the next couple of months. I would rent it out for a few years before selling it.0
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I was just wondering what is actually going happen most of the people are saying there a price fall coming, others are saying there is't but my question is would it be worth investing into a property in the next couple of months. I would rent it out for a few years before selling it.
"The Tonight team investigate why Britain's housing market is slowing down after the past decade's price boom, and reveal who stands to win and who stands to lose from this change."
But watch properly. So think about what you are hearing, where they are talking about ... and think about why the programme was made (who made it, what is their angle). Then try to apply reasoning and logic to your ideas.
Personally, if I thought somebody I cared about was thinking of doing anything similar I'd want to meet them soonest, face to face and spend at least half a day with them going through their reasoning/figures and bringing them up to date with what's been going on around the world, locally, in the markets. . . then I'd hope they'd say "OMG, thanks, I won't be doing it"0 -
Friend of mine is buying a house that is on the market for over £280K but knew the agent that valued the house which was for £250K so he offered £235K and settled for £245K. The big message is do not over value your house if you want to sell it in todays climate.0
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PasturesNew wrote: »Watch this at 10pm tonight then:
"The Tonight team investigate why Britain's housing market is slowing down after the past decade's price boom, and reveal who stands to win and who stands to lose from this change."
But watch properly. So think about what you are hearing, where they are talking about ... and think about why the programme was made (who made it, what is their angle). Then try to apply reasoning and logic to your ideas.
Personally, if I thought somebody I cared about was thinking of doing anything similar I'd want to meet them soonest, face to face and spend at least half a day with them going through their reasoning/figures and bringing them up to date with what's been going on around the world, locally, in the markets. . . then I'd hope they'd say "OMG, thanks, I won't be doing it"
God, the most sensible post I've read for ages:T0 -
Caruser,
No.
Not because investing in property is not a useful addition to a portfolio that is underweight in property.Simply, your comments about selling in a few years. The transactional costs on property are such that basically flipping in that timespan will not work within the market and credit conditions that we have and will mostly likely have in the medium term.
Turning property over which is basically your idea only works for you when markets have a great deal of momentum and this one has lost it's momentum.
If you'd asked should I take a high ratio of equity to purchase and use it to snap up a deep price cut at auction with a view to holding it for 10 or more years as a means of getting some property into a portfolio underweight on it. I would have said it sounds like a useful idea.
Regardless of what people wish to say about property anyone who wants to fight the depreciation of their asset worth subject to the modern banks penchant for inflation must get some exposure to an asset that has that.After that it's a question of what alternatives are in the lineup in the next couple of years. Long term property will be in the line up ,but there may be better options available.
Actually , do some research on something called "Gibsons paradox" and think about what inflation and negative real returns mean and you might get some ideas.0 -
To shamelessly nick JBeau's comment about PasturesNew. . .
Same from me where KITCHEN1's concerned. :T0
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