House Price Crash Discussion Thread

paulrn_2

i'm fed up too, but with all the hype. last time I crashed my car it was 40% damaged, I would have been happy with 0.8%. Despite all the good and the great on here NO ONE knows what will happen, we might have a HPC we might not, Things may level out they may not we will probably have a war with Iran or China over Tawain or North Korea, or not.

Best thing to do is make your own arrangements and weather the storm, after all if every thing that is predicted on here comes to pass, you probably won't have a job either.

Reporters are bound to report every variation in prices with attention grabbing headlines, its their job to do that, and we seem to live in a society that loves to wring its hands with grief and this site seems to have its share of misery elfs.

If your house is your home, there is no worry as long as you can afford it, if its an investment then tough, there are no sure bets in life

pamaris

paulrn wrote: »

Best thing to do is make your own arrangements and weather the storm, after all if every thing that is predicted on here comes to pass, you probably won't have a job either.

Actually you probably *will* have a job. Even in economic downturns, *most* people do have a job. In the early 90's, unemployment was at 8%. Definitely a crap situation, but doesn't that mean that 92% were employed? I am not trying to sugar coat things, but let's have a bit of balance in these conversations. I have heard so many times that people should not wish for a housing correction/ crash because it will mean economic meltdown. We shall see I suppose.

paulrn wrote: »

If your house is your home, there is no worry as long as you can afford it, if its an investment then tough, there are no sure bets in life

Here is the trouble, many people like me have no house/ home because we can't afford it, and it is a big worry not having secure accommodation for your family. You are obviously speaking from the point of view of one who is quite settled.

[Deleted User]

movilogo wrote: »

HSBC says houses are 30% overvalued
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2963482.ece

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=598270

I think HSBC need to pay me 250K/year to be an analyst for them as im obviously just as good as they are :beer:

ivegotabig1

Yant1 wrote: »

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=598270

I think HSBC need to pay me 250K/year to be an analyst for them as im obviously just as good as they are :beer:

Some of the economists i have heard really amaze me with there conclusions !! & i Honestly think many on these boards can do a better job !!..
Its as if they become so caught up with the minutiae that they really cannot see "the wood for the trees" ... Sometimes people need to take a step back a little... Inflation is still a problem...the biggest & longest period of growth for decades is winding down..credit harder & more expensive to come by, Oil near record levels... & and an economy that is going to slow down sharply next year !! ... now what does this suggest to everybody ?

codger

pamaris wrote: »

Here is the trouble, many people like me have no house/ home because we can't afford it, and it is a big worry not having secure accommodation for your family.

I know this may sound daft, but you might just be in a better situation than others who have bought a house not as an investment, but as a home, and are about to be squeezed by rising interest rates and inflationary pressures to the point that the mortgage repayments they took on at top-of-the-market prices cannot be sustained.

What happens to these is that having tasted Paradise, they are highly unlikely to savour it again: their home is taken from them to realise whatever asset value the lender needs to cover the debt; their credit history is wrecked and ability to borrow, impaired for years to come.

This is what occurred in 1989-1993.

But what happened then was, the market was in large measure kick-started by those such as yourself: first time buyers for so long excluded from home ownership, but who could now get onto the home ownership ladder thanks to the realignment of the house price / average earnings ratio.

Sadly, your good fortune can only come at a time of others' ill fortune. But that's a situation which you have not contrived, and for which you bear no responsibility. So. . . If you can wait, then you may well find that your wait will not be in vain.

pamaris

codger wrote: »

I know this may sound daft, but you might just be in a better situation than others who have bought a house not as an investment, but as a home, and are about to be squeezed by rising interest rates and inflationary pressures to the point that the mortgage repayments they took on at top-of-the-market prices cannot be sustained.

What happens to these is that having tasted Paradise, they are highly unlikely to savour it again: their home is taken from them to realise whatever asset value the lender needs to cover the debt; their credit history is wrecked and ability to borrow, impaired for years to come.

This is what occurred in 1989-1993.

But what happened then was, the market was in large measure kick-started by those such as yourself: first time buyers for so long excluded from home ownership, but who could now get onto the home ownership ladder thanks to the realignment of the house price / average earnings ratio.

Sadly, your good fortune can only come at a time of others' ill fortune. But that's a situation which you have not contrived, and for which you bear no responsibility. So. . . If you can wait, then you may well find that your wait will not be in vain.

Thanks, that is moderately comforting, although I don't take pleasure in benefiting from someone else's heartbreak. However, as you said, it's not my fault so I have nothing to feel bad about.

It should have never gotten to this point to begin with but again that has nothing to do with me. Technically we are not even first time buyers (3rd time buyers actually!) We bought 2 properties in the USA in the past 5 years but did not benefit from high HPI so effectively, since we do not have a huge stack of magic equity cash in the bank, we are first time buyers.

Our plan is to look around late summer 2008 and start making offers that are realistic to us (that is, that we could realistically pay). If sellers aren't biting then we'll move into rented accommodation (can't stay with MIL too much longer, bless her.) Realistically I doubt that we will be able to secure a property we like at a price we can afford before mid 2009. I just think it is going to take some time. We need either a 25% price drop or a 50% pay rise, or a combination of the two before purchasing a home becomes realistic. Things do change very quickly though; you never know.

At least the cat is out of the bag now. I think we won't know for sure what sort of momentum this thing is going to pick up till mid summer 2008, after we see the effect of all the BTL's trying to take profits from April onwards. In any case, it does seem that there is no turning back now.

WTF?_2

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

MSNC - Life is harder now, experts say

Wasn't sure where to post this. Despite being US orientated, it makes very interesting reading.

Indeed - and with soaring costs in the UK it's just as relevant here too. Despite the government's inflation figures of circa 2%, prices have shot up in recent years whereas wages and benefits haven't ... leaving many people with considerably less spare cash or even sinking further into debt.

m00m00

anyone who thinks inflation is dead, isn't paying any attention to their weekly shopping

an 800g loaf of warbutton's bread now costs 1.16 in most of the major supermarkets, up from about 80p a year ago, and this isn't an isolated incident.

a rather more than 2% increase

pamaris

m00m00 wrote: »

anyone who thinks inflation is dead, isn't paying any attention to their weekly shopping

an 800g loaf of warbutton's bread now costs 1.16 in most of the major supermarkets, up from about 80p a year ago, and this isn't an isolated incident.

a rather more than 2% increase

Yeah what is up with that? 2% inflation? Oh that covers everything except food, fuel and housing right? OK and how much of most people's income is taken up by food, fuel and housing? 70-90% I'd say!

I recently bought 2 chicken breasts at Asda for £3.16. That seems a bit dear to me for 2.

Doozergirl

pamaris wrote: »

I recently bought 2 chicken breasts at Asda for £3.16. That seems a bit dear to me for 2.

That's because they want you to buy 4 for £5.00. They're all 'on offer'