House Price Crash Discussion Thread

codger

m00m00 wrote: »

one other thing I've noticed while trawling through auction catalogues

is it seems most of the repossessions going through auction at the moment, are either from Hbos or AMG

Nothing significant from NR, then. Well: that's a (temporary) relief, anyway. . .

dunnomate

I saw some geazer from Charcoal Mortgage broker on News 24 last night. He said, that fewer properties coming on the market (cos of HIPS etc...) are keeping prices up !!!

cheers

dunnomate

merlinthehappypig

This one was on at £649950 in July, reduced to £599950 in September, then £499950 in early October. I can't provide online proof, but do have the local paper from 4 October showing it as £599950 and the original brochure from the other agent at £649950.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-16637114.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

geoffky

wendy one question

WHY OH WHY NOW!!!!!

codger

chriseast wrote: »

This one was on at £649950 in July, reduced to £599950 in September, then £499950 in early October. I can't provide online proof, but do have the local paper from 4 October showing it as £599950 and the original brochure from the other agent at £649950.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-16637114.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

Thanks, Chris: six figure price drops aren't as unthinkable as I'd been thinking.

Just goes to show the smoke and mirrors that estate agency is: could anyone really contemplate a £150,000 LOSS on their property if they'd ever really believed that the agent's earlier valuation was remotely genuine?

I suspect not.

Hence the way a malign psychology will now undermine the market still further -- longtime owners who never expected their properties to "show" the value being set on them will be quite happy to sigh and say well, what-you've-never-had, you-never-miss. . .

And so they'll cope with what to others may seem a savage reduction in value but which, to them, is actually a most satisfying increase.

They can cope with the paper loss. Becauwe they know that whatever else they may be buying -- often, down-sizing to -- is going to have fallen in value, too.

More recent buyers, however, can't. It's no longer a paper exercise.

So now it's the paper-loss losers who will increasingly accelerate the market into a downward spiral where the most recent buyers wind up feeling everything from the pain of financial loss to the nightmare of property loss itself.

Happy 2008. Not.

merlinthehappypig

I agree. Many of these big drops must be down to stupid valuations in the first place, but go back six months and people were paying these prices. The example I posted isn't alone. We viewed another also originally on at £649950, which was reduced to £595000 and offered to us at £520000 and another originally on at £550000 which was offered to us at £430000.

To counter that we looked at another two. One on at £525000 who wouldn't reduce at all, but 'might help with the stamp duty excess' and one at £560000 who won't budge below £520000.

It's difficult to say whether we are seeing real reductions from a property's 'true' value or just more realistic pricing. I'm reluctantly looking to buy at present, but simply can't work out what anywhere is worth. I've bought seven times before and have never had this problem. Comparing like with like is almost impossible, because of the disparity in pricing.

HammersFan

Just my view.....

I think that there will be lots of sub-markets in UK housing over the next few years. The recent big risers - like London, Wales, NI will stall or drop. These markets seem to be over-dependent on speculators, and 'frothy' valuations. Some of the rises in London over the last year or so are almost impossible to justify.

There will be steady growth still where there has traditionally been lower than avergae levels of owner occupation and price growth has been lower in the past (e.g. some parts of Midlands, Northern England). I would say around 3-4% growth here (which is 0% growth if you take into account inflation). I live near Derby and growth has been 6-7% for 4-5 years now. That doesnt seem excessive (nor the average price of about 130-150k).

A lot of the discussion on here ignores sentiment - so crucial in the market, and the British obsession with home owning (which doesnt look like changing). Also with an election looming the Government will intervene wherever possible to prop the market up.

One other thing. The vast majority of homeowners dont have to sell. Unless there is a massive economic downturn. If people don't have to sell, there is no reason why prices should fall. And in the unlikely event they do fall, maybe people will realise that if they are planning on moving up the ladder or investing, a fall is a good thing (then all the pent-up demand comes out into the open and price rise once again).

ivegotabig1

Sorry Hammers fan...We heard all this from the U.S over the summer.. the rout is still continuing..



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7115392.stm

Just wake up & smell the coffee instead of clutching at straws.... This idea that prices will " level off " is Fantasy ! IMO There is not going to be a crash..but prices are falling & will continue to do so as the economy slows dramatically from next yr..

[Deleted User]

A price crash doesnt happen overnight.

Lots of tiny things build up, it has a domino effect that can take years to play out.

Economic uncertainty started in 1987 played out really till 1994.

movilogo

3 houses from my shortlisted 12 houses on rightmove, have reduced their asking prices by £3-4k in last one week! All were around £150+/-£5k before!