House Price Crash Discussion Thread

HammersFan

In response to....

"Just wake up & smell the coffee instead of clutching at straws.... This idea that prices will " level off " is Fantasy ! IMO There is not going to be a crash..but prices are falling & will continue to do so as the economy slows dramatically from next yr.."

The key phrase here is IMO. Its all just opinion. Time will tell I guess. Clutching at straws? We'll see. I dint say prices would not fall, just that catastrophic predictions arent nailed-on certainties.

Much like anything else, whatever the state of the market there are opportunities to make some money. If first-timers don't buy they'll need to rent and buy-to-letters will keep afloat as a result (with the possible excpetion of those who went heavy on town-centre new builds - of which so many were way over-priced, they are not a true reflection of the ocre housing market). Some people will panic and sell, but not in the droves that journalists would have us believe.

Overall prices will probably flatline, but there will be some pretty large pockets of growth still....IMO.

dolce_vita

We have just experienced the biggest asset bubble of all time.
Fuelled by cheap credit and sentiment.

Below is a list of similar bubbles which have ended with a "soft landing" or "levelling-off"









































Did you count them all?

John_Pierpoint

m00m00 wrote: »

and here's proof

http://www.propwld.co.uk/auction/pdfs/agents/Bagshaws/LOT%209.pdf

guide price 70k (and the last time this was in auction, it failed to make reserve of 70k

bought as a new build


08 Aug 2006 7 Apartment Brook Court, Player Street, Nottingham, City Of Nottingham NG7 5PP Flat £139,000 LH NB


looks pretty close to a 50% reduction to me

look at that post code on right move, and you'll see a flood of identikit new build flats for sale from 65k

A Nottingham graduate and former BTL landlord, now sold up and renting, writes:
"Wow, that's quite a reduction. I notice that the flat is in Radford...
maybe the not so nice areas are falling fastest first.

70k is a much more reasonable price. You might be able to get say a 8%
return by letting to some students (which is a lot better than 4%!).

There are definite signs of a crash appearing! My colleague xxxxx
thinks that prices have slumped in Abingdon and that the market has
frozen up. The floods were a bit of a turning point there I believe."

If I remember Radford correctly from 10 years ago, one had to be careful
not to wait too long for the lights to change or you might find
your car on bricks with the wheels stolen;)

Mind you it is on the tram route now, isn't it? So perhaps every one was expecting it to come up in the world ?
No it isn't, it has missed out agoin by being half way between the North route and the proposed West route.
http://www.thetrams.co.uk/net/linethree/

m00m00

this is definitely a point about new build flats in general, and the people buying them 'off plan'

too often they throw blocks of new builds up, in not very nice areas at all, and charge premium prices for them. People buying off plan, often don't have a good idea of the area.

when we first moved to nottingham in 2004, we had absolutely no idea of the areas, so we were just looking on right move, saw a nice looking house in Forest Fields and arranged to view it. Turned up, got to the end of the road, and just said, no way, didn't even go near the actual property. I would guess with the off plan feeding frenzy, prospective tenants do a lot more due diligence into the area, than landlords do.


Also with regard to those flats, you'd have no chance letting them to students as the university has build loads of new student accomodation next to the jubilee campus, and the market for student houses in nottingham has shrunk drastically. I've seen plenty of ex HMO's pop up for sale this summer in the lenton/dunkirk areas of nottingham, areas that were previously a licence to print money where students were concerned.

codger

I guess any kind of "crash" is a description of an event that is itself the outcome of a series of untoward events.

Where the housing market is concerned, the actual nature of a "crash" can only be gauged from the severity of events bearing upon it, and the extent of the impact damage cumulatively sustained

Anecdotal evidence -- a key factor in driving up house prices, with sellers seeing what other, earlier sales have achieved, and determining to top those figures -- must clearly play a part in what's happening now. Even estate agents are speaking of "a new reality".

Chris's point about an overdue correction of pricing in various sectors is correct, as is Hammers' point that by no means everyone, everywhere, is at this very moment on the brink of selling -- or of having to sell.

As ever, it's events in the wider economy, coupled with the "new reality" in the marketplace, which will decide if what we're witnessing now is merely a skid that can be corrected, a slow-speed crash of relatively minor extent, or a full-blown straight-into-a-solid-brick-wall disaster.

At the moment, I think the "skidding" phase has passed and we're witnessing a kind of slow-motion, though long overdue, collision of the housing market with reality.

What happens next though -- whether the market absorbs that impact, or disintegrates -- only time will tell, as Hammers says.

:undecided

abidan_2

Rather than re-writing my opinion on this topic again please read the article i posted on my website......i really don't believe a house price crash is around the corner but I believe we will see a mini housing markey crash affecting city centre apartments. Houses with gardens are much sort after but apartments are sitting empty in cities all over the country...read more here http://www.lets-makemoney.co.uk/property_investment.php

PasturesNew

Nationwide figures just published.

Prices down 0.8% in October.

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=economicIndicatorsNews&storyID=2007-11-29T070015Z_01_L2635039_RTRIDST_0_BRITAIN-NATIONWIDE.XML

Turnbull2000

MSNC - Life is harder now, experts say

Wasn't sure where to post this. Despite being US orientated, it makes very interesting reading.

The basics, according to Warren, now take up close to three-fourths of every family's spending power (it was about 50 percent in 1973), leaving precious little left over at the end of the month — and leaving many families with no cushion in case of a job loss or health crisis.

movilogo

More crash news

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=497248&in_page_id=1770

HSBC says houses are 30% overvalued
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2963482.ece

ivegotabig1

Being a house owner i also am dissapointed that prices are going south..but became irritated by the "prices to level off" brigade ...

"UK house prices see sharp tumble" ...
says it all really.. perhaps some on here will finally pull there heads out of the sand & stop kidding themselves or us, as the like of the halifax & nationwide have been trying to do up till now in a sad attempt to shore up confidence, even they are having to state the obvious now

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7118336.stm

& this is just the begining !!!